Sachin Reddy, who has got his predictions more accurate than anyone else, has elucidated the reasons why the Bharatiya Janata Party fell short of a majority in Karnataka. According to him, internal sabotage played a significant part in seats where the BJP lost by narrow margins.
Final updated numbers for Karnataka Assembly Polls:
(Change since 2013)Final consolidated numbers
Total 224 seats
BJP 103(+63)
INC 79 (-43)
JDS 40(0)
Oth 2(-20)(I’m calling it a hung assembly with BJP as SLP. Massive downfall of INC.)
RT
— Sachin Reddy (@snsachinnandu) May 11, 2018
In Gubbi, for instance, the BJP candidate lost to JD(S) by a margin of 9000 votes while a BJP rebel Dileep Kumar secured 30000 votes.
4. In Gubbi, BJP’s Bettaswamy polled 46k votes and lost to JDS’ Vasu by 9k votes. BJP rebel Dileep Kumar secured 30k traditional BJP votes!
5. In Nagthana, BJP’s Gopal Karjol got 53k votes & came 3rd. JDS won this AC with 59k. Con fielded exBJP MLA Katakdonda, who got 54k votes!
— Sachin Reddy (@snsachinnandu) May 16, 2018
A similar pattern was observed in in Indi, Bailanhongala and Jamakhandi.
2. In Indi in Bijapur, BJP official candt Dayasagar Patil polled 31k votes and came 3rd. BJP rebel Ravikant Patil got 39k votes. Cong’s YV Patil emerged as winner with 50k votes.
3. Jamakhandi- BJP lost by just 2795 votes. BJP rebel Sangamesh Nirani polled 24k votes!
— Sachin Reddy (@snsachinnandu) May 16, 2018
Poor management of caste equations and ticket distribution cost the BJP several seats as well, especially Bidar.
2. Bidar- poor management of caste calculation, ticket distribution and perception management cost BJP this crucial district. It annoyed the strong Maratha community by nlt fielding a Maratha in any of the 6 seats. It also failed to use the Lingayat card.
— Sachin Reddy (@snsachinnandu) May 16, 2018
However, the biggest boost to the BJP came from Central and Coastal Karnataka where it bettered its tally from 2008. The Modi-Shah factor worked in the coastal region while B.S. Yeddyurappa carried the day in Central Karnataka.
Central and Coastal Karnataka regions gave the biggest boost to BJP’s tally. This is the best ever performance of BJP in this belt, better than even 2008! BSY-Sriramulu played the biggest role in Central Karnataka while Modi-RSS played a big role in Coastal. pic.twitter.com/EpnqbaN0V4
— Sachin Reddy (@snsachinnandu) May 16, 2018
While the BJP fell short of a majority, the Congress and JD(S), despite going at each other’s throat throughout their election campaign formed an alliance. However, with dissenters from both parties poised to support BJP, BS Yeddyurappa has been sworn in as the chief minister with 15 days to prove his majority on the floor of the house.
The conclusion appears to be that although 104 seats is a remarkable performance by the BJP, without internal sabotage and better ticket distribution, it could have comfortably secured a majority on its own.
