Jan Ki Baat has released the results of its latest survey ahead of the Lok Sabha elections predicting an NDA government after the 2019 general elections.
Speaking to OpIndia.com, Pradip Bhandari, the Founder and Chief Editor of Jan Ki Baat, said, “The most important takeaway from this survey is that Narendra Modi will be returning as Prime Minister in 2019 and he is all sure to get a second term. The survey has been done on the basis of a seat-by-seat and state-by-state analysis over a period of 2 months, sampling 5 lakh voters.”
In its survey, which sampled 5 lakh people from all over the country, the polling agency predicted a victory for the NDA with 304-316 seats and the BJP to emerge as the single largest party with 248-260 seats.
The results of Jan Ki Baat Poll done in partnership with @republic and @Republic_Bharat between Feb 1 to April 2 2019 with sample of 5 lakh@pradip103 @PMOIndia @narendramodi#Elections2019 #JanKiBaat2019OpinionPoll #PradeepAnalysis pic.twitter.com/Wr8cblQBdX
— Jan Ki Baat (@jankibaat1) April 4, 2019
The survey also predicted the Congress to increase its tally at least from the 44 it secured in 2014. The UPA, on the other hand, is expected to win between 117-126 seats. Consistent with the disparity in the number of seats, the NDA is likely to secure a vote-share close to 50% while the UPA is predicted to manage only 39%.
In Madhya Pradesh, the NDA is likely to win 22-25 seats while the UPA is slated to win between 4-7. In Bihar, the former is expected to win between 28-33 seats while the rest may go to the UPA. In Uttar Pradesh, one of the most crucial states for the BJP, the party will likely lose a significant chunk of seats it had won last year. However, it is still expected to win more than 40 seats. The SP-BSP alliance appears set to win anything between 25-33 seats.
Releasing Statewise Result of India’s Biggest #JanKiBaat2019OpinionPoll Done Along With @republic @Republic_Bharat
UTTAR PRADESH (80)
BJP: 43-52
SP-BSP: 33-25
INC: 4-3@pradip103#2019LokSabhaElections #PradeepAnalysis #JanKiBaat2019OpinionPoll pic.twitter.com/ueMMqj105h— Jan Ki Baat (@jankibaat1) April 5, 2019
The BJP will compensate for the expected loss of seats in Uttar Pradesh by making major gains in Odisha and West Bengal. In Odisha, Naveen Patnaik is expected to suffer significantly as BJP makes inroads into the state. The BJP is expected to win anything between 8-12 seats. In West Bengal, the BJP is expected to win at least 11 seats.
A major surprise came from Tamil Nadu where the UPA was expected to sweep the state. However, according to Jan Ki Baat, the two alliances are now locked in a fierce battle and currently, it is the NDA which appears to have the slight upper hand.
Tamil Nadu (39)
NDA : 20-21
UPA : 19-18 @pradip103#2019LokSabhaElections #PradeepAnalysis #JanKiBaat2019OpinionPoll pic.twitter.com/kK9LiRpQky— Jan Ki Baat (@jankibaat1) April 5, 2019
Bhandari stated further, “In Karnataka, despite the Congress-JD(S) alliance, the BJP will emerge with the maximum seats. It might increase its seat tally by 2-3 seats. The simple reason is that the Congress and the JD(S) are cutting into each other’s votes. The Congress and the JD(S) cadres are fighting a battle between themselves.”
“The Congress is only gaining in 3 states: Punjab, Kerala and Chhattisgarh. There are no other seats where the Congress is showing substantial gains. Congress crossing 100 seats on its own is not possible, it’s not true. In Rajasthan, Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh, the BJP is poised to get a majority of the seats. In Maharashtra, the Shiv Sena-BJP alliance appears set to win more than 35 sets,” he added.
