On Friday, the ABP-CVoter survey released its pre-poll survey for the upcoming Assembly elections in five states – Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Manipur and Goa. According to the ABP-CVoter survey, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will win in four of the five states going to the polls in early 2022.
The poll suggests that the saffron party will return to power in four states – Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Goa and Manipur. All four states have an incumbent NDA government currently.
In the Congress-ruled Punjab, according to the ABP-CVoter poll, no single party will cross the majority, however, Aam Aadmi Party is currently leading as the single largest party in Punjab, slightly short of the majority mark.
The pre-poll survey indicates that the BJP enjoys popular public support in these four states and may continue to be in power. However, for the Congress party, the survey comes as a shock. If ABP-CVoter holds true, then the Congress party faces a massive crisis in all the five states that go into the polls early next year, with Punjab and Manipur being the worst-hit states.
Here are the details of the ABP-CVoter pre-poll survey of the five states:
Uttar Pradesh:
In Uttar Pradesh, the BJP alliance is expected to secure a 42 per cent vote share as per the survey figures. SP is a distant second with a vote share projection of 30 per cent vote, and BSP is slated to take third place with just 16 per cent vote. Under the helm of Gandhi-scion Priyanka Gandhi, the Congress party fails to make an impact yet again with just a 5 per cent projected vote share.
The BJP is expected to comfortably cross the majority mark with a projected 259-267 seats out of the total 400 seats, according to the poll. On the other hand, Akhilesh Yadav-led Samajwadi Party may get 109-117 seats to emerge as the principal opposition party.
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Interestingly, BSP’s vote share does not translate into seat share as it is projected to win only 12-16 seats. The Congress party to get 3 to 7 seats, and others at 6 to 10.
Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath is the most popular leader in the state, with 40 per cent of the respondents want him as the preferred CM choice. Akhilesh Yadav is next at 28 per cent affirmation. Former CM Mayawati is placed at the third spot.
Uttarakhand:
As per the ABP-CVoter poll, the BJP is slated to win the state. The BJP is projected to win a 43 per cent vote share and 44-48 seats out of the 70 seats. On the other hand, Congress is projected to secure around 33 per cent vote, translating into 19-23 seats.
The Aam Aadmi Party, which is gaining to make an entry into the hill state, is gaining at the expense of the Congress party. AAP is projected to get around a 15 per cent vote. However, the vote share may not get translated into seat share as AAP may just 0-4 seats, according to the ABP-CVoter survey.
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Even though the Congress party is in a distant second, its leader continues to be the most popular leader as CM choice. Former CM Harish Rawat is leading the charts by 31 per cent, while incumbent CM Pushkar Singh Dhami is preferred at second with 22.5 per cent. Anil Baluni of the BJP is placed a close third with 19 per cent popularity points. Nearly 10 per cent of the surveyed wants Colonel Kothiyal of AAP to be the next Chief Minister.
Punjab:
Punjab – one of the crucial border states, is expected to throw a surprise, as per the ABP-CVoter survey. The pre-poll survey suggests that the Aam Aadmi Party may emerge as the single largest party in Punjab with a seat share of 51-57 seats and a vote share of 35 per cent.
The Congress party, which is facing a huge crisis due to the infighting between incumbent Chief Minister Capt. Amarinder Singh and Punjab Congress Chief Navjot Singh Sidhu is staring at a massive defeat if the pre-poll survey is to be believed. The Congress party is expected to win only 38-46 seats as against 77 seats in the last elections. The Congress party may get around 29 per cent vote share.
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The BJP Punjab may not perform well as expected amidst the backdrop of the farm law protests in the state. BJP is not a major force in Punjab. The party will gain a marginal vote share to get 7 per cent of total votes, but it may fail to win a single legislative assembly seat.
Strangely, the ABP-CVoter polls suggest that 22 per cent of the survey participants want Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal as the Chief Minister of Punjab. AAP has not projected its Chief Minister candidate in Punjab yet. Akali Dal chief Sukhbir Singh Badal is the second most popular leader with 19 per cent, closely followed by incumbent CM Amrinder Singh at 18 per cent.
Manipur:
The NDA alliance is slated to win Manipur with a 41 per cent vote share and 32-36 seats. The BJP-led alliance is slated to beat anti-incumbency in Manipur, according to the ABP-CVoter poll.
In Manipur, the Congress party will hold onto its status as the principal opposition party. The Congress party may get 18-22 seats, while NPF may win 2-6 seats.
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As per the pre-poll survey, BJP is expected to continue its successful run in Northeast India. Congress is facing a leadership deficit and crisis of credibility in the region, just as in the rest of India.
Goa:
Despite anti-incumbency, the BJP is expected to be back at the power in Goa, just like the case of Uttarakhand, this time with more legislators. According to the ABP-CVoter survey, BJP is in the pole position with a projected vote share of 39 per cent and a seat share of 22-26 seats.
Surprisingly, AAP is set to replace the Congress party as the principal opposition party dethroning the INC. AAP is projected to win a 15 per cent vote share and 4-8 seats. At the same time, the INC is projected to win a 15 per cent vote share and 3-7 seats.
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BJP CM Pramod Sawant leads the Chief Minister’s race with 33 per cent points. The AAP candidate is the nearest rival, with just 14 per cent want him as the Chief Minister.
The ABP-CVoter indicates that the BJP is still the most preferred political party in the country. The BJP has successfully managed anti-incumbency in the North, East and West of India, which could be indicative of a larger trend across the country.
