The new Covid-19 variant omicron remains a cause of concern as India is seeing a sudden spike in the number of cases related to the highly transmissible coronavirus variant that has fuelled record outbreaks in various countries in the world. India’s omicron cases rose to 961 across the country, an increase of 180 infections reported a day before, according to the Union Ministry of Health and Family Welfare on Thursday. On Wednesday, WHO warned that the new Covid-19 variant- omicron still poses a “very high” risk and could overwhelm healthcare systems.
The spread of omicron primarily due to loss of immunity: IIT Kanpur prof
Amidst the rising concerns, IIT Kanpur Professor and Padma Shri awardee Maninder Agarwal has said omicron variant is spreading rapidly primarily due to significant loss of immunity and not due to increased infectivity. By applying his mathematical model, SUTRA, Professor Aggarwal said that the peak in South Africa, where the new COVID-19 variant was first detected, came as per his assessment based on the ‘super model’ initiative.
An increase in rho due to loss of immunity also increases beta by same factor in our model. This increases beta from 1 to 1.21. Although current beta is 1.35, it has an uncertainty range of +-0.34, and so its actual value may well be close to 1.21.
— Manindra Agrawal (@agrawalmanindra) December 22, 2021
Dr Agarwal, took to Twitter to provide a detailed study of the new variant based on the data from two other countries with a large spread of omicron- The UK and Denmark.
“A new phase started in SA from November 1 and stabilized after three weeks. Value of contact rate (beta) increased from 1 to 1.35 and reach (rho) increased from 0.86 to 1.04,” wrote Dr Agarwal explaining that the increase in rho beyond 1 suggests loss of immunity. “We may even assume the entire increase is due to this loss since it is believed that Omicron is bypassing natural immunity significantly,” he wrote, adding that if this data is taken as the base, then 18 per cent of the people there have lost their immunity in these countries. This increased the spread of omicron, said, Dr Agarwal.
A new phase started in SA from November 1 and stabilized after three weeks. Value of contact rate (beta) increased from 1 to 1.35 and reach (rho) increased from 0.86 to 1.04.
— Manindra Agrawal (@agrawalmanindra) December 22, 2021
In India, 80% of the population is immunised. In South Africa, vaccine-induced immunity was lower than in India. Moreover, in South Africa, the Pfizer vaccine has been administered which has shown lesser efficacy as compared to Covishield and Covaxin which have been predominantly administered in India.
Dr Agarwal further tweeted that one thing is certain that the omicron variant is bypassing vaccination immunity to a great level as compared to the natural immunity of the people. Currently, the contact rate in India is 0.54, the reach is 0.95 and the natural immunity is 83 per cent. If 20 per cent of people lose immunity, the parameter will change, he explained.
Number of infections in India during Covid-19 third wave would be half compared to second wave
Dr Agarwal said the current contact or beta rate in the UK is 0.52, down from 0.72 in the previous month. The same thing happened in Denmark. In the current situation, if we presume that 20 per cent of the naturally immune people in India lose their body immunity, then the third wave in India may peak in early March with anywhere between 1.8 lakh and 2 lakh Covid infections getting reported from across the country in a single day. The numbers would dip by the end of April.
We assume that 20% naturally immune people lose immunity. This causes a rise of both rho and beta by a factor of ~1.2, resulting in rho ~ 1.15 and beta ~ 0.65. Further, we assume that this rise happens over the month of January.
— Manindra Agrawal (@agrawalmanindra) December 23, 2021
The severity of the third wave, in terms of numbers, would, however, be half than what India saw during the second wave of the pandemic, said Dr Agarwal. It may be recalled that in May 2021, when India was experiencing the peak of the second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic the daily cases had crossed the 4 lakh mark. So as per Dr Agarwal, tough the third wave is inevitable it will be far less impactful than the second wave, which had hit India with an intensity that was perhaps unforeseeable. This definitely comes as a breather for the people of the country.
How about hospitalizations? During Delta-wave, about 1 in 5 reported cases required hospitalization in India. With Omicron, the hospitalizations have gone down by a factor of at least two in SA/UK/Denmark. So we assume that 1 in 10 cases will require hospitalization in India.
— Manindra Agrawal (@agrawalmanindra) December 23, 2021
Speaking about the hospitalisation requirements during the third wave, Professor Manindra Agarwal has further estimated that approximately 2 lakh beds will be required when the third wave is at its peak in the month of March. He said that during the Delta wave, about 1 in 5 reported cases required hospitalization in India whereas during the omicron variant driven Covid third wave it can be assumed that 1 in 10 cases may require hospitalization in India.
Lockdown might not be necessary during third wave of Covid-19: Dr Agarwal
He further stated that, unlike South Africa, the omicron variant does not appear to have much of an impact on India at the moment. There is no indication of a lockdown. However, a complete assessment can be established only after the variant spreads widely in India.
Speaking about the rapid spread of the omicron variant which has pushed the UK into a state of emergency, Dr Agarwal was of the opinion that in the United Kingdom, though there is more vaccination (mainly mRNA vaccine) in terms of numbers, the seropositivity is lower. While in India, vaccination rates have risen, so has the seropositivity. He said that apart from vaccination, natural immunity has also developed in many people. In such a scenario, though India will experience the third wave, it will be less frightening than the delta variant driven second wave.
It may be noted that earlier, Prof Agarwal had predicted that the omicron wave in South Africa would peak anywhere between 18 to 23 December. He had, however, advised waiting a few more days.
We now have sufficient data for the model to capture the recent sharp rise in SA. It is expected to continue and peak sometime during Dec 18-23. There is less certainty about the peak value and we need to wait for some more days.https://t.co/mi6M0R2Kq0
— Manindra Agrawal (@agrawalmanindra) December 8, 2021
Prof. Agrawal in the IIT’s Department of Computer Science and Engineering and the recipient of the first Infosys Prize for Mathematics and the Shanti Swarup Bhatnagar Award in Mathematical Sciences in 2003. He was involved with the national ‘super model’ initiative SUTRA, which tracks the Covid-19 infection in the country. Their assertions are significant because of their consistency in the past.
It may be recalled that in August Prof Agarwal had said that the third wave of coronavirus would arrive in a highly unlikely scenario that is only if a new virus strain emerges. Besides, by applying his mathematical model, SUTRA, Prof Agarwal had predicted the trajectory of the second surge in infections. He had predicted that the situation would worsen in May 2021, and rightly so, the second wave of Covid was at its worst during May this year with India recording its highest-ever surge of 4.14 lakh Covid cases in a single day.
In this study, the IIT Kanpur professor had also estimated the statewide exact peak time and graph fall date of the second wave of Covid and that too had proved accurate.
In an interview during the second wave, Professor Agarwal had also busted the rumours peddled by the leftist media and opposition parties that the Kumbh Mela in Uttrakhand was the primary reason for the resurgence of the Covid cases in India. Prof. Manindra Agrawal from the Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Kanpur had confirmed that the Kumbh or the poll rallies for that matter, might have had a little impact on the second wave of the infection in India.
