The long run-up to the 2024 general elections has already started. The political space is heating up and not a day passes without some development. Arvind Kejriwal is one of Modi’s challengers and is therefore worth a study.
At first glance, Kejriwal may seem like one of those comedians in Indian movies that come, make silly remarks, and vanish, without any connection to the main storyline. You can cut out those portions and insert them into any movie. But that would be foolish – if he is nothing else, Kejriwal is deviously clever.
Death of hope
To understand the Yugpurush, we must go back to his origins. Do you remember those days? There was the smell of springtime in the air, even burying the stench of UPA loot. Strangers were smiling and hugging each other on the streets. Ok, that was an exaggeration but for sure there was huge ho(y)pe. NRIs were tipping over each other to donate him money – they thought with a man like him running India, at least the next generation of Indians don’t have to be e-coolies like them, living abroad to escape the wretched existence of the Indian middle class, if not worse. Top bankers and Wall Street whiz kids were quitting their job to “change India”. For a while it did seem he will clean the rot of India’s politics like a Hercules, sweeping the muck off Augean stables. Little did they know he will only flood it with even more sewage.
So the great hope turned into a farce. A farce, that is one of India’s biggest tragedies.
How did it happen? It was death by a thousand cuts.
There were enough hints now that you have the benefit of hindsight. How neatly he usurped the apolitical anti-corruption movement into a vehicle for his personal ambitions! Did he not take a train to Varanasi as “aam aadmi”, to challenge Modi but took a chartered flight once the need for virtue-signalling was over? And then told us he wants every Indian to be flying private planes? How deftly he sidestepped and buried his main plank –Sheila Dixit’s alleged corruption – to take on Modi? And knowing how much the Stalinist left controls the media ecosystem and plants narratives, embraced Islamist jihadism, their all-weather ally, by seeking support of a controversial cleric who wanted author Taslima Nasreen killed? This fooled poor Muslims twice over – once by the dynasty and now by him! As if that were not enough, he dropped Hinduphobic sound bites. Today is going around promoting Ram Bhakti. Ideology to Kejri is like a T-shirt. Change it when fashion changes.
Along the way, many of his fellow travellers dropped off – some because they just couldn’t reduce themselves to sickening sycophants of the sort that can survive in his camp. His megalomaniac ambitions and conversion of AAP into a Lala firm where one man’s writ alone runs turned off anyone that had a modicum of self-respect. Do you remember he used to publish a list of donors? Has anyone seen that lately? No wonder starry-eyed bankers bailed out in disgust because they realised they have not discovered some golden cup with amrut from heavens but ditch water.
His dangerous embrace of separatist elements with bloody past in Punjab offered further proof of his sole agenda – to crown himself emperor, even if that means destroying the country. His ridiculous and nonsensical allegations of the “Singapore variant” of COVID” almost affected our friendly ties with this prosperous Asian country home to thousands of Indians. Until they perhaps realized he is just a clown not to be taken seriously. His other actions during the COVID crisis too showed his scant regard for norms, moral fabric and working together in times of crisis. Be it rapes and crime, COVID, pollution or any other matter, he only knows two things – take credit or blame others. Doing real work seems to be beyond his capability or intention as the infamous “AAP builds hospitals” farce showed. Instead of helping during the oxygen crisis, he was hindered. His “solutions” to problems like pollution have bordered on the nonsensical including sprinkling water on the froth in the river!
As I mentioned earlier, this farce is one of the biggest tragedies because Kejriwal has not just destroyed his own aura, he has made life difficult for anyone coming after him claiming to be the next messiah. Every honest man or woman entering politics with a similar message of “cleaning up” or change will be viewed as a charlatan and a possible fraud. That is his contribution to India’s politics thus far and that’s quite an impressive achievement. Isn’t that a tragedy?
Such was the hype, the corrupt media ecosystem, that once tried to paint him as a closet Sanghi because they were still benefiting from UPA loot and didn’t have an alternative source of cash flow in sight, embraced him as the Yugpurush that can deliver them their next farmhouse or Nirav Modi necklace. Now even they are fed up and have gone back to the familiar tastes and smells of dynastic boots they have licked their entire careers.
Today he is trying to buy them off with taxpayers’ money spending hundreds of crores on ads. Have you come across any media elite sitting in a Paris café sipping Bordeaux, objecting to his pictures in those ads? How about making kids stand all day in polluted traffic lights with a placard of his picture on their hands, asking them to turn off their engines?! Do you think some “speaking truth to power” journalist will talk about it? Supreme Court itself slammed the gimmick although it stopped short of mentioning Kejriwal’s pictures prominently displayed by the poor “volunteers”.
But all that makes no difference. That’s Indian politics. Key question is, can he do well in 2024? Who will he damage more?
Hope lives on.
In 2014, AAP contested 432 seats. It turned out to be a great source of revenue for the Election commission to defray the cost of elections because they lost a deposit in 413 of them! 2019 was a bit more realistic bid although that too failed big time. 40 contested, 1 won.
For now, his focus is on Punjab and Goa state elections scheduled for early 2022. If he can do well in 2022, that will power his 2024 ambitions even further. Clearly a majority is a must. Anything else will be a failure.
But he is back to his familiar game in these states. Freebies, courting the separatist votes and the like. And based on current opinion polls, chances look bleak.
Who will he damage more in 2024?
The game is very different for 2024. The majority is out of the question. Know the story of two friends chased by a tiger? One of them starts to put on his running shoes. The other says, “What’s the point? Tiger runs a lot faster!”. This guy replies – “I don’t have to outrun the tiger, only you!”
So if Kejri outruns the next loser, he is in the game. That could mean about 40 seats if Congress does badly and TMC doesn’t sweep WB. He could be the biggest game in town. Of course, we assume Modi/NDA go way below the majority. Implausible? Who knows?!
Looking at his strategy of courting Lord Ram and faux-Ayodhya temples in Delhi, it may appear he is going after BJP votes. But after incessant, rabid and vulgar attacks on Modi, he sealed off that potty sometime after 2019, focusing instead on embracing soft Hindutva. His attacks on Modi/BJP are far more nuanced and subtle now. What does that tell us?
One guess is that he is anticipating a Congress decimation and trying to mop up as much as possible of the dynasty vote before other vultures swoop in. That requires occupying the centrist space that Congress occupied, not the fringe left Bharat-tukde-tukde space Rahul is courting. That’s why he’s been remarkably quiet on issues that rile our comrades, shedding his leftist skin like a reptile.
This strategy, unfortunately, puts him in direct confrontation with Didi who is pursuing the same tactic with much greater vigour (and cash?), aggressively snatching jobless or dissatisfied Congress rebels. In fact, TMC moving into Goa, a state fancied by Kejriwal, adds to the problem.
One wonders how Goa voters are going to choose between these two born again Hindus. A Hanuman Chalisa recital contest? One mispronounced word, you are out? Only one of them is going to emerge out of this arena to tell us the story. Hint: WB has 40+ seats, Delhi only 7 that too with BJP enjoying clear vote share advantage in Delhi Parliamentary elections even if it loses the state ones.
Yet another problem is that in state after state, even if he can subdue Congress, he will run into regional satraps and dynasts who are no pushovers. Most of them are realists, focusing their energies on local politics, where takings can be equally rich and content to get a small share of the takings at the Center and let the famiglia enjoy the biggest piece. They are not going to roll over and play dead.
But ignoring best case scenarios, it is quite likely he will end up with single digit seats and he probably knows this.
Beyond 2024
With age on his side (he’s 53) and a possible complete write-off of Rahul’s career or whatever is left of it, post-2024, Kejriwal is playing a waiting game. Remember, Modi too would be nearly 80 in 2029. Even Didi will be 75. And the regional dynasts, if they are in the game at all, will happily let our Yugpurush occupy the throne in Delhi provided he doesn’t touch their lucrative franchises in the states. Having long given up any pretences of anti-corruption, that shouldn’t pose any moral dilemma for him. Remember the Laloo embrace?
Although mentioning the word moral in the same sentence as Yugpurush seems oxymoronic. That is the tragedy of this farce.
