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What India should watch out for if the Russia Vs Ukraine war breaks out with China overseeing the fiasco

While a direct battle with China might not be desirable, one must realise that India is in a great position today both economically and strategically.

The important thing for a country to grow economically is to have buffer states between itself and its competitors. The Greeks, the Romans, USSR and even the USA always made sure either it has healthy relations with its neighbours or has a buffer state. If India wants to grow economically into a superpower, it has to think of such policies from now on.

Invasion of India has always taken place either from the west through the Hindu Kush (Hindu blood) mountain pass or from seas, but in modern times, our coastlines are safe while our neighbour in the west i.e. Pakistan, is no competitor so far as economic growth and being a superpower is concerned. The competitor lies in the north- the Chinese dragon, and unfortunately, the region that could have played the role of the buffer state, Tibet, is under Chinese occupation.

In 1720 the Qing Dynasty from Beijing invaded Tibet along with the greater eastern inner Asia and defeated the Dzungar Khanate. This was the first time the middle kingdom or “Zhongguo” took over the Mahāyāna Buddhism and all its influence throughout Central Asia. Some centuries later, another Chinese “Butcher” emperor Mao Zedong took over Tibet because of the fear that religion was the “opium of the masses”. The “Butcher” and all his successors had one nightmare – the rise of Dharma can bring down their empire of blood. 

Till today more than a million Tibetans have been butchered by the evil CCP dictatorship. Millions more are rotting in concentration camps, women are being sterilized at an unprecedented rate and much worse. Tibetans, the most hard-working people on earth, do not have a place called home and even if they do, they cannot speak or learn their own language and if they do, they are hunted.

The atrocity that CCP heaps on citizens are done while the leadership occupied chairs at the UN Human Rights Council. It is almost as if the western world, including the UN, which lectures the world about freedom and democracy, has traded Tibetan lives for cheap mobile phones and soft toys from China.

India has long acknowledged Tibet as a part of Chinese territory. The policy has not changed even in the current dispensation. However, one has to recognize that Tibet is a potent tool in the hand of India. Not just from a strategic point of view, even from an ideological and civilizational point of view of the current dispensation, a free Tibet would have been in India’s favour.

The idea of “Hindu Rashtra” has been a long-standing demand, yet to be fulfilled. What Chanakya and Chandragupta once dreamt of, was carried on by the struggle of Chhatrapati Shivaji, to the writings of Bankim Chandra Chattopadhyay, Chandra Nath Bose to the ideology of Vinayak Damodar Savarkar is yet to be fulfilled. The election of Narendra Modi perhaps gave Hindus a ray of hope after a long time.

In our quest for Hindu Rashtra, let us not forget that Hindus worship Shiva “The Destroyer” but his abode is under the occupation of the evil regime of CCP and the maintainers of that land are being persecuted on a daily basis.  To establish Hindu Rashtra, the land of Shiva “The Destroyer” must be freed from such evil atrocity.

While a direct battle with China might not be desirable, one must realise that India is in a great position today both economically and strategically. The USA based Western order is at loggerheads with the Chinese-Russian order and both have one common quest – India on their side. India because of its vast economic opportunity and its strategic location.

Today, the CCP is not the dragon we once imagined – the Wuhan Virus and eastern Ladakh standoff has shattered the myth of strong China. The USA and all its western allies are furious at China but President Biden and some of the other countries might not take China down decisively since, despite the right noises, there has been no strong policy shift.

Within four-five years the “Baby Boomer” generation of the USA is going to retire and with that, the retirees will place their assets on safe bets. Turkey is already seeing a capital outflow and crash of the Lira. If predictions are somewhat true, the US Dollar might be replaced with a Crypto-based currency as the World’s reserve currency, not entirely, but in part for sure. In that respect, India could be a game-changer. 

India’s population and the tech-informed urban population will benefit massively. Russia, which is incrementally becoming a satellite state of CCP needs India to survive, and China itself is facing shortcomings on every side, and if initial estimates are right, Evergrande, the Chinese real estate giant, can crash any day now sinking the CCP to the bottom of Gulf of Tonkin. 

China has only one option, to intimidate Taiwan and push Russia to an all-out war with Ukraine including the West. In the scenario that Russia invades Ukraine, the EU and USA will hit Russian Federation with so many sanctions that Kremlin might have to be sold brick by brick. 

Russia is desperate because of Chinese loans which account for nearly 50 billion USD, but it will not want to risk a nuclear war with the West. In any scenario, the China and Russia duo need to have India on its side, which is why, their leaders on a virtual meet on 15th December, agreed to have a trilateral talk that included India. President Putin appears to be trying very hard to mediate between Modi and Xi. In that case, the card is decked in favour of Prime Minister Modi.

If a chance arises in which Russia and China ask India to join their side or at least stay neutral India under Modi, it must push China to make compromises over Tibet. Could that moment arrive? We will have to see how geopolitics shapes in the year 2022. Who knows that this time an opportunity may come from the north, not a disaster like Covid-19?

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Saptorshee Chakraborty
Saptorshee Chakrabortyhttp://saptorshee.weebly.com
Dr. Saptorshee Kanto Chakraborty is Post-Doctoral fellow at Paris School of Economics with a PhD in Political Economy focussed on Environmental and Economics of Innovation from University of Ferrara, Italy. He has extensively published in top-rated Economic Journals and was previously engaged with IIM-Calcutta as a Research Assistant.

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