Ahead of the upcoming Vidhan Sabha polls in Uttar Pradesh, Uttarkhand and Punjab, polling agency ‘Jan Ki Baat‘ in association with India News published an Opinion poll for the three key States on Saturday (January 15).
The Jan Ki Baat Opinion poll survey for the State of Uttar Pradesh was conducted between December 22 last year and January 10 this year. A total of 20,000 people participated in the survey, between the age groups of 18-35 years (30%), 35-45 years (45%) and 45 years+ (25%). As per the findings, the BJP is set to grab an estimated 39-40% of the total votes and between 226 to 246 seats in an Assembly of 403.
Opinion poll survey suggests that the Samajwadi Party (SP) will be the runners-up with 144-160 seats and a vote share of 34.5-36%. It also estimates that BJP will win 50 out of 86 seats reserved for the Scheduled Castes (SCs), followed by Samajwadi Party (32 seats) and BSP (4 seats).
About 56% of the participants want to see Yogi Adityanath as the Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh. The other CM candidates in descending order of preference include Akhilesh Yadav (32%), Mayawati (9%) and Priyanka Gandhi (2%).
Besides the Jan Ki Baat survey also states that the key issues surrounding the elections include Caste/Religion (25%), Development (20%), Law and Order (20%). At the same time, about 85% of participants believe that PM Modi will draw votes for the BJP during the upcoming Vidhan Sabha polls.
Interestingly, around 45% of people opined that Yogi Adityanath must contest elections from the Mathura constituency while 15% suggested his bastion of Gorakhpur.
BJP may clinch Uttarkhand, AAP distant third
Jan Ki Baat conducted an Opinion Poll survey in Uttarkhand between December 21, 2021, and January 9, 2022. A total of 5000 people, belonging to age groups 18-25 years (18%), 25-30 years (22%), 35-45 years (40%) and 45+ years (20%) participated in the survey. The polls for Uttarakhand predicts a close contest, with BJP marginally ahead of Congress.
The findings suggest that BJP may clinch the elections with a 38% vote share (34-38 seats), followed by Congress with 36% vote share (24-33 seats). AAP is likely to bag 2-6 seats with a 13% vote share. If this prediction becomes true, a Congress-AAP alliance can happen to grab power in the state.
Interestingly, about 40% of participants have rated the performance of the incumbent BJP government as ‘Good.’ As per the survey, migration, development, health and education are primary election issues in the Uttarkhand Vidhan Sabha polls.
Opinion Poll suggests comfortable AAP victory in Punjab
With a sample size of 10,000 people, Jan Ki Baat conducted an Opinion Poll survey in Punjab between December 21, 2021, and January 11, 2021. According to the survey, AAP leads the race in Punjab with 58-65 seats (38-39%), followed by Congress with 32-42 seats (34.5-35%). Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) is a distant third with 15-18 seats (19-20%), followed by the BJP with an estimated 1-2 seats (5-6% vote share).
An estimated 33.4% of respondents stated that the performance of the incumbent Congress government is poor while about 23.4% of them rated it as ‘good.’ The underlying issues of the Punjab election centre around inflation, development, unemployment and the drug epidemic in the State. Jan Ki Baat estimates that 48% of women voters will vote for AAP, followed by Congress, SAD and BJP.
On January 8, the Election Commission of India (ECI) announced the dates for the Vidhan Sabha elections in 5 States, namely, Goa, Punjab, Manipur, Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand. While briefing the media, Chief Election Commissioner Sushil Chandra informed that the elections in the poll-bound States will commence from February 10, 2022, to March 7, 2022.
Elections in the State of Uttar Pradesh will be conducted in 7 phases, followed by Manipur with 2 phases. Elections in Goa, Uttarkhand and Punjab will be conducted in a single phase. According to the Election Commission of India, the votes will be counted on March 10, 2022. ECI informed that all physical campaigning will be ceased until January 22, 2022, in light of the rising cases of Coronavirus.
