The results of the Punjab Assembly elections came as a significant shock for the traditional players. Every prominent leader, including Capt Amarinder Singh, Prakash Singh Badal, Navjot Singh Sidhu, sitting CM Charanjit Singh Channi (from both seats), lost elections. It is a clear sign that the moment voters see a possible alternative to the traditional parties, they may take the chance. Aam Aadmi Party went with the slogan “Ik Mauka AAP Nu”, which literally means “One chance to AAP”, and it won.
Several factors made it possible for AAP to win Punjab. The party has done extensive groundwork in the state, and the strategic support they provided to farmer protests played an essential role in the win. The controversy over support to separatist elements too played in favour of AAP. In addition to what AAP has done to win the elections, the lack of substance in the traditional parties also helped AAP. The fight within the Congress party, Shiromani Akali Dal’s bad track record, Capt Amarinder Singh’s separation from Congress, Sidhu’s irresponsible behaviour close to elections and the negative wave against Bharatiya Janata Party in the state redirected more votes to AAP.
As of now, Punjab’s political arena has a clean slate, and in the next five years, it will be up to the political parties how they can use it. For AAP, being in the majority, that too with 92 seats means almost nil opposition. Overpowering 27 MLAs in opposition is not going to be a difficult task for the party, but that is not the challenge that they are going to face. There are a lot of challenges associated with Punjab that are going to give sleepless nights to the AAP government.
Law and order in a border state
Punjab shares a 547 KM long border with Pakistan. In the past couple of months, there have been multiple incidents where security forces caught weapons, ammunition and drugs being smuggled from the other side of the border. Also, the tiffin box bomb incidents, a bomb blast in a court in Ludhiana, drugs smuggling and a visible increase in pro-separatist sentiments in the state have been directly linked to Pakistan. Amidst all these challenges, the party that is going to rule the state has literally no experience in handling law and order.
AAP often blames the BJP-led central government for the law and order problem in the capital state, where they have been in power for three consecutive times. The Delhi Police comes directly under the central home ministry. But the case is different in Punjab. Here, AAP will be directly responsible for any glitch in law and order. From controlling drugs and illegal arms to putting a plug on the separatists in the state is going to be extremely tough for them.
The issue of sacrilege
While you are not in power, it is easy to give statements and ridicule the government for inaction over incidents of sacrilege in Punjab. Both SAD and Congress failed to address the issue, and it reached the point that Punjab saw four incidents of lynching linked to sacrilege in 2021 itself. Out of which three happened in Punjab (Gurdaspur, Amritsar and Kapurthala), and one has people involved from Punjab (Singhu Border Murder Case).
Bhagwan Mann, who is all set to take oath as Chief Minister on March 16, has openly talked about the incidents and targeted the state governments for their inaction. However, now they are going to rule the state, and it is not going to be easy for them to ignore the sacrilege incidents from the past. Also, the state government has to be highly vigilant about such incidents in future as a mob with the “instant justice” mentality is not good.
AAP promised action against culprits in such incidents in their 10-point Punjab Model, but how far they are going to be successful in controlling such incidents, only time can tell.
The tall promises and the debt burden
AAP has promised a reduction of electricity bills, Rs 1000 every month to every woman above the age of 18 among, and more. These promises will require funds that Punjab does not have. At present, the state is under a debt burden of around 2.5 lakh crores. According to State Election Commission, there are 1.1 crore women registered as voters in Punjab. That means even if we consider this data as the absolute number, AAP has to spend approx 1,100 crores every month, which converts to 13,200 crores every year. In a state that has over 2.5 lakh crore debt, such promises are not going to be easy to fulfil.
The future of BJP in Punjab
Honestly, when it comes to Assembly elections, BJP never had a stronghold in the state. The party always contested with SAD and did not have much say in the administration. Now, when the alliance with SAD is over, and all the major players of SAD and Congress are out of the picture, BJP has a strong chance to build its base in Punjab.
In the recent elections, BJP got a 6.6 per cent vote share, and AAP had a 42 per cent vote share. In Lok Sabha 2019 elections, NDA had a 37.08 vote share, and AAP had merely a 7.38 per cent vote share. Though in Lok Sabha 2019 elections, BJP was in alliance with SAD, people vote for the party or alliance that they want at the centre and not for the regional parties. Hence, if BJP wants, in the next five years, it will not be difficult for them to gain momentum in Punjab and increase their seats and vote share in the 2027 Assembly Elections.
Furthermore, if BJP has such intentions, there is no time to wait to build the strategy. They have to work from day one and continue to cherry-pick the issues that are close to the people of Punjab. They have to make sure the people of Punjab know if any central scheme is not available for them. They have to make sure to tell the farmers that it is the central government that they are getting payments for their produce from the central government and not from the state government. The next assembly elections in Punjab will be AAP vs BJP, and it is high time the state chapter of the saffron party start preparing for the fight.
