The results of yet another much-awaited by-poll in Telangana were declared yesterday. The TRS has emerged victorious in this election by beating the BJP with a margin of about 10,000 votes. We had earlier discussed the background of this election in the Munugodu constituency in Telangana. As the headline aptly indicates, the TRS literally put in its entire might for this prestigious election – 88 MLAs of the TRS stayed put in the constituency for 2-3 weeks; the entire cabinet made multiple rounds; the CM himself was in charge for a village and also held a huge public meeting towards the end of the campaigning.
In addition to this large-scale deployment, the TRS also deployed various campaign strategies that included allying with the Communists (2004-14, this seat was with the Communists); KTR calling up local BJP leaders and impressing upon them the various schemes of TRS that are benefitting the people; last minute GOs that benefit the areas just across the border of Munugodu constituency; large scale distribution of certain goodies etc. All these have paid off well for the party, as is evident from the fact that the party led in 12 of the 15 rounds of counting.
However, as everyone in the media have repeatedly pointed out – TRS’s victory margin is totally disproportionate to the scale of their investment into this election. When the entire cabinet and almost the entire Legislature party stayed put in the constituency and all you could do was to conjure up a 5% victory margin, it also speaks quite highly of the spirited challenge that the BJP has put into this election. While of course, the spirited campaign is a positive aspect of the BJP, the result of this election also indicates the mountainous challenge that is ahead for the BJP in Telangana.
The by-poll was necessitated because the sitting MLA from Congress, Mr Komatireddy Rajagopal Reddy quit the congress party and joined the BJP. In the 2018 elections, he won 97,000 votes as against the 75000 votes by TRS and 12000 votes by the BJP. In this election, he won nearly 87,000 votes – indicating his stronghold on the constituency. The BJP has to continue to put in stronger efforts to nurture such strong leaders across all 33 districts in the state.
One of the key reasons for the rise of the BJP in Telangana is because of its spirited public engagement efforts. The Party President, Mr Bandi Sanjay Kumar has completed 4 phases of his padayatra, completing walking nearly 1200 km across the state. Union Cabinet Minister Kishan Reddy is in the state every weekend, meeting people. Many leaders from Telangana have been given key roles in the national organization and their on-ground presence is really helping the party build their messaging and connect.
Another key reason for the rise of the BJP in Telangana is because of the disenchantment that is setting in with KCR’s family rule in Telangana. For the BJP to fully utilize this sentiment, it has a lot of catching up to do in terms of grooming more local leaders and the messaging of what it can offer if voted to power. TRS party’s messaging across various social media and mainstream media outlets is by far more visible than that of the BJP.
There is another big challenge for the BJP – and that is the Congress party! This election indicates that the downfall of the Congress party in Telangana is a continuously successful process! This particular seat was held by the Congress party earlier. The MP under whose constituency Munugodu falls is also from the Congress party (a disgruntled one now). Rahul Gandhi was in Telangana for nearly 10 days, during which the by-poll was held, as part of his Bharat Jodo Yatra. And yet the Congress party lost its deposit yesterday.
The story is not just about the loss of its deposit. The Congress party got about 24000 votes (nearly 10%) in yesterday’s election. The Congress party has such a vote bank in many constituencies across the state and that vote bank doesn’t necessarily automatically trend towards the BJP. We have seen earlier also that this vote bank splits between the TRS and the BJP. Hence the uphill challenge for the BJP is to ensure that this vote bank moves towards the BJP as much as possible. A weakened Congress is certainly ensuring a rise of the BJP, but is it enough to win power? The answer to that question today is no.
As indicated in many previous articles, the Telangana BJP needs to ensure that the WB result is not replicated in the 2023 elections. For this, in addition to the big picture, there are many small things that need to be taken care of. The party has an enthused cadre and an equally committed volunteer workforce to help in creating a narrative, spreading the message and in campaigning. The TRS is as formidable a force as the TMC is. Whilst KCR can of course not deploy this kind of strength in the 2023 assembly elections, he still has a good foothold on many leaders and areas of Telangana. The 2023 elections are a fight between TRS and the BJP. In the past 4 years, both parties have seen ups and downs in elections, so we know how close the fight will be!
