On December 8, the results of the Gujarat Assembly Elections 2022 were announced. Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) performed beyond expectations in the elections and won 156 seats out of 182 Assembly seats breaking all the previous records. With a 52.5 per cent vote share, BJP is the single largest party in Gujarat, with next to nil opposition in the house for the next five years.
As per the Election Commission of India, BJP got a total of 1,67,07,957 votes combined on all seats. Compared to its 2017 performance, BJP secured 57 more seats and increased its vote share by 3.45 per cent. In the 2017 elections, BJP had got a total of 1,47,24,031 votes, combined on all seats.
Congress has reduced from 77 seats to 17 seats, losing its strength by 60 constituencies. In the 2017 elections, the grand old party had received 1,24,37,661 votes, which was 41.44 per cent of the total votes cast on all seats. However, this year, the party got only 86,83,966 votes, which was 27.3 per cent of the total votes cast. In totality, the party lost 14.14 per cent vote share.
Coming to Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) which contested 29 seats in the 2017 elections and got 29,509 votes in total, which was 0.10 per cent of the total votes cast. However, in the 2022 elections, the party contested all seats except Surat (East), where its candidate withdrew his nomination. The party got 41,12,055 votes, which is 12.9 per cent of the total votes cast. AAP won 5 seats that are Dediyapada, Gariadhar, Botad, Jamjodhpur and Visavadar.
In his statement, AAP Chief Arvind Kejriwal said, “Gujarat is BJP’s stronghold, and we have penetrated their fort”. But is it true that AAP managed to steal the vote share of the BJP in Gujarat? OpIndia did a detailed analysis of Gujarat’s 2022 and 2017 election results, and this is what we found.
First of all, let’s talk about the deposit AAP has lost in Gujarat. It is true that AAP has a massive vote share jump compared to the previous election. However, it is notable that the party has lost its deposit on 126 seats.
Its candidates managed to save the deposit only on 55 seats.
Now the question is, does AAP managed to take over the vote share of the BJP? Or it was more of Congress’s and other parties’ loss that helped AAP in getting most of the votes.
Performance on five seats AAP won
In Dediapada, AAP got 1,03,433, BJP got 63,151 votes, and Congress got 12,587 votes. In 2017, BJP got 61,275 votes and Bharatiya Tribal Party (BTP) got 83,026 votes. This year, BTP managed to get only 2,991 losing over 80,000 vote shares. It was majorly BTP’s vote share that got shifted to AAP as BJP, in fact, gained almost 2,000 in these elections on this seat.
In Gariadhar, AAP got 60,944 votes, BJP got 56,125 votes, and Congress got 15,099 votes. In 2017, BJP got 50,635 votes, and Congress got 48,759 votes. While BJP has gained got around 5,500 more votes, Congress has lost over 33,000 votes. On this seat as well, AAP did not get any benefit from BJP voters.
In Botad, AAP got 80,581 votes, BJP got 77,802 and Congress got 19,058 votes. In 2017, BJP got 79,623 votes, and Congress got 78,717 votes. AAP got a major share of Congress’s votes to win the seat. BJP indeed lost a couple of thousand votes in this seat, but that cannot be considered a major win of AAP over BJP.
In Jamjodhpur, AAP got 71,397 votes, BJP got 60,994 votes, and Congress got 13,514 votes. In 2017, BJP got 61,694 votes, and Congress got 64,212 votes. While BJP got 700 more votes, Congress lost over 50,000 votes, giving AAP an edge to win the seat.
In Visavadar, AAP got 66,210 votes, BJP got 59,147 votes, and Congress got 16,963 votes. In 2017, BJP got 58,781 votes, and Congress got 81,882 votes. While BJP got over 300 more votes this year, Congress lost over 64,000 of its vote share, giving AAP a convenient edge to win the seat.
Analysis of the seats where BJP lost vote share
As per our analysis, BJP lost vote share on 37 seats. Here is a detailed analysis of these 37 seats. Out of these 37 seats, BJP won on 23 seats and Congress won on 9 seats. AAP managed to win 2 seats out of these 37 but on those two seats BJP had lost only 2,521 votes compared to 2017 assembly elections.
If you look closely, AAP lost a deposit on 19 out of these 37 seats. There are eleven seats where BJP lost more than 10,000 votes. Let’s check how many votes AAP managed to get on these seats.
In Dhari, BJP lost 25,064 votes, and AAP got 37,749 votes. On this seat, Congress lost 48,666 votes. It cannot be definitely stated that AAP got any share from BJP’s lost vote share as Congress lost more votes compared to what AAP got. BJP won this seat.
In Dhanera, BJP lost 20,459, and AAP got 1,130 votes. On this seat, Congress lost 44,649 votes. AAP lost the deposit on this seat. Independent candidate won this seat.
In Santrampur BJP lost 18,398 and AAP got 24,554 votes. On this seat, Congress lost 27,551 votes. It cannot be definitely stated that AAP got any share from BJP’s lost vote share as Congress lost more votes compared to what AAP got. BJP won this seat.
In Dhoraji, BJP lost 16,789 votes, and AAP got 29,794 votes. On this seat, Congress lost 30,888 votes. It cannot be definitely stated that AAP got any share from BJP’s lost vote share as Congress lost more votes compared to what AAP got. BJP won this seat. Dhoraji saw a significant fall in the vote cast as well. In 2017, 1,95,383 voters voted but in 2022 only 1,55,049 voters voted.
In Keshod, BJP lost 15,623 votes, and AAP got 24,497. On this seat, Congress lost 9,025 votes. AAP lost the deposit on this seat. BJP won this seat.
In Halol, BJP lost 14,704 compared to their 2017 performance, and AAP got 21,788 votes. On this seat, Congress lost 51,459 votes. AAP lost the deposit on this seat. BJP won this seat with a huge margin.
In Jetpur (Chhota Udaipur), BJP lost 12,907, and AAP got 48,262 votes. On this seat, Congress lost 39,695 votes. BJP won this seat.
In Dharampur, BJP lost 11,400 votes, and AAP got 50,217 votes. On this seat, Congress lost 39,191 votes. AAP got benefitted from the loss of both the BJP and Congress. BJP won this seat.
In Jasdan, BJP lost 11,236, and AAP got 47,636 votes. On this seat, Congress lost 38,526 votes. AAP got benefitted from the loss of both the BJP and Congress. BJP won this seat.
In Amraiwadi, BJP lost 11,083, and AAP got 7,787 votes. On this seat, Congress lost 4,534 votes. AAP lost the deposit on this seat. BJP won this seat.
In Bayad BJP lost 10,395 and AAP got 5,647 votes. On this seat, Congress lost 49,682 votes. AAP lost the deposit on this seat. Independent candidate won this seat.
It is clear that on seats where BJP lost over 10,000 votes, AAP may have profited from BJP’s share but that appears to be limited because Congress has lost a significant chunk on the majority of these seats, and it is likely that Congress support based had shifted its loyalty toward AAP.
Stats of seats where AAP got over 50,000 votes
There are 19 seats where AAP has received over 50,000 votes. Out of a total of 41,12,055 votes the party received, these 19 seats are responsible for 12,49,233 (30.37 per cent) votes. Notably, on these seats, Congress has lost 7,91,785 of its vote share, and BJP gained 1,20,268 compared to the 2017 vote share. In Kamrej, Rajkot Rural, Gariadhar, Limdi and Olpad, BJP got more votes than in 2017. However, in Botad, Jamjodhpur, Limkheda, Katargram, Khedbarahma, Varachha Road and Dharampur, BJP lost vote share. However, this loss was only 35,661 votes. It is evident that AAP gained mostly from the loss of Congress and other parties, even in the seats where it has performed at its best.
By comparing the vote shares of BJP and Congress from 2022 and 2017, it is evident that AAP did not dent BJP’s vote share in the Gujarat Assembly Elections but got benefited from the loss of Congress and other parties. While AAP has become a national party by winning a substantial chunk of the vote share in Gujarat, it is far from comparing itself with BJP in the state.
