There were a lot of speculations about the elections in Gujarat. The election results have come. The Bharatiya Janata Party has not only managed to save its stronghold but has also broken all the records with the thumping majority. The Congress has now started to mark its end here and the very beginning of the Aam Aadmi Party in the state seems to be the end of it.
The Gujarat assembly elections were an election for the BJP to save its fortress and for the opposition to break it. In the end, the BJP won. The saffron party has not only secured a victory but it has shined like never before by securing 156 out of 182 seats. On the other hand, the opposition parties have completely failed in their ‘Stop BJP Campaign’.
The BJP: What is anti-incumbency?
In Gujarat, the BJP has done a very good job in three decades. Significant work has been done in Gujarat in every field, including infrastructure, electricity, water, development of tourist places. The major contribution to this is that of Narendra Modi. The people of Gujarat have reposed faith in Modi, in the BJP and it is still intact. This is one of the major reasons why the BJP wins elections from panchayat to assembly here with a huge majority.
The 2017 assembly elections were really difficult for the Bharatiya Janata Party. The Patidar agitation was going on in full swing. Other communities were also united, the party was fighting for the first time without Narendra Modi as the CM face. People were looking for an alternative to Narendra Modi. The Congress was much more active than it is now. However, the BJP somehow saved the government with 99 seats.
There was no such problem against the BJP in this election. Various communities were also attached to the BJP during these five years. Also, no new movements or agitations did arise in the state. The situation changed to such an extent that Hardik Patel and Alpesh Thakor, who had once been against the BJP government, contested this election on a BJP ticket.
Apart from this, last year, the party changed the entire cabinet, including the chief minister, and its direct effect was seen recently. Due to Corona, people had some dissatisfaction with the Vijay Rupani government. However, this was the situation in all the states then and perhaps the BJP would have retained power even if it had fought with the same government, but the party’s aim was not just to retain power. And results made it clear that the party has fulfilled what it actually aimed for.
The Bhupendra Patel government worked quietly for a year. The effect of this was seen in the results of this election. Bharatiya Janata Party bagged the top spot right from the first round of vote counting. At one point in time, BJP was leading on more than 160 out of 182 seats. From the beginning itself, it was clear that BJP will form a government with a clear majority. The BJP won 156 seats in the 2022 Gujarat assembly elections with a surge of 57 seats as compared to its performance in the 2017 Gujarat assembly elections.
The changes in Congress
After a major setback at the Centre in 2014, the graph of the Congress has been steadily going down. However, in 2017, the party won 77 seats in Gujarat. But then the same situation happened here, which happened in the country after 2014. The reason is that the party does not have leadership. And if there is no leadership, then the organization also collapses and if there is no organization, then even a respectable figure cannot be obtained, let alone forming a government. These results underlined this.
The Congress leaders who were working hard in Gujarat in 2017 also did not show much interest. The party’s high command also seemed to have just completed the formalities. Rahul Gandhi did only three rallies. Priyanka Gandhi did not come even though she was invited. Till the end, the party did not even start campaigning. At last, PM Modi had to say from the public platform that the Congress is still alive!
However, the party works hard when it gets a response from the people as well. Seeing the constantly declining graph of the party here, people did not even come out to support them. The seats where the Congress has won are the seats where the candidates were strong and they have won with their own popularity and ability and not on account of the party symbol.
The decline of seats and votes for Congress was visible from the morning sessions on the counting day. Congress looked nowhere in the race as BJP swept the majority of seats in all five sections of the state. The Congress and NCP alliance fighting against the BJP could not even cross the 50 mark in the trends anytime during the counting. Finally, it had to settle on 17 seats. For a party to claim the seat of the leader of the opposition in the house, it should at least have 19 elected members in the assembly. For the first time in the history of Gujarat, no party in the opposition qualified to claim it.
Aam Aadmi Party ended before it could get a good start in the state
The Aam Aadmi Party started campaigning this time six months ago. It started creating an atmosphere a year ago. But the party could not do much. In the end, it had to be content with breaking the Congress vote. The party did not perform well even in Surat where the party emerged.
The Aam Aadmi Party used social media extensively in this election, but social media does not win elections. To win elections, a party needs the organization and workers who work on the ground. The AAP had workers, but those who would go to a Facebook post and write ‘Only AAP’. The lack of workers seeking votes made the party suffer in this election.
Kejriwal and the Aam Aadmi Party also made promises of freebies, but they also did not catch the inclination of the people. On the other hand, during this period, the scams of the Delhi government that came out also forced the people to vote against AAP. The rest was done by party president Gopal Italia.
The Aam Aadmi Party also lacked leadership. Gopal Italia and Isudan Gadhvi, both leaders, could not even save their own seats. And if there is no capable leadership, then the organization does not survive, and even if it survives, then people do not work. And no political party in the whole world can stand in comparison with the BJP in terms of organization.
AAP made hype on social media as it contested 181 out of 182 seats as if it was going to make a government on its own. In the end, AAP was restricted to single-digit figures and could win on 5 seats only. It did not touch a double-digit figure anytime during any round of counting
AIMIM failed to lure the ‘Muslim voter’
Asaduddin Owaisi’s party AIMIM’s performance was even worse. They contested 14 seats, all of which were Muslim majority seats. The results are no different than expected. The party lost everywhere. The Congress’ votes were cut by AIMIM in many seats out of the 14, as has been the case in all elections.
In short, this election was an opportunity for the BJP to break records, for the Congress to survive and for the Aam Aadmi Party to make inroads; in which the BJP has fulfilled its target on account of Modi’s popularity, three decades of work and strong organization. The Congress could not perform as expected and the Aam Aadmi Party and AIMIM miserably failed.
