The results of the Gujarat Assembly elections were announced on 8th December 2022. The victory of the Bharatiya Janata Party was being predicted and looking at the atmosphere, it was almost certain that the Bharatiya Janata Party was winning this election. But it was not anticipated that BJP will win such a grand majority and a historic victory, as the party won 156 out of 182 seats. The Congress, on the other hand, slipped from 77 to 17. The Aam Aadmi Party had nothing to lose, but could not perform the way it had created hype. In this election, the AAP got only 5 seats.
However, Aam Aadmi Party leaders have found a reason for their supporters to be happy. It is that they have become a national party. According to the rules, one of the criteria for declaring a party as a national party is that a party can become a national party if it gets more than 6% votes in assembly elections in a minimum of four states. As Aam Aadmi Party got more than 6% votes in Delhi in 2020 (54%), Punjab (42%) and Goa (6.8%) earlier this year and now in Gujarat (12.9%), it has fulfilled the criteria and thus has become a national party now.
The Aam Aadmi Party has won 5 seats in this election. Out of which 4 are from Saurashtra and 1 from Central Gujarat. In all the remaining seats that the party contested, their candidates lost. In 128 seats they lost so badly that they lost deposits. The party’s big faces — Isudan Gadhvi, Gopal Italia, Alpesh Kathiria, Dharmik Malaviya — none could win. However, the Aam Aadmi Party got 12.92 per cent or about 13 percent of the votes. So a question is also being discussed who can be these voters?
There were three types of voters in this election. The first voters who vote for the BJP, and support the BJP, irrespective of the election and the candidate. These people did vote for the BJP. There is a very large section of such voters in Gujarat. There is another class who are pro-Congress voters. Those who vote for Congress under any circumstances. However, the number of such people is gradually decreasing. But there is a third category of voters who are not sure and vote considering many aspects. The Aam Aadmi Party got a lot of help from such voters in getting so much vote share.
Whose votes could the Aam Aadmi Party have got?
The Aam Aadmi Party created hype on social media, due to which there was some impact on the youth in particular. In addition, the Aam Aadmi Party also held the hands of so-called young revolutionaries and this also led to some support from the youth. So some of the votes from first-time voters and youth went to the Aam Aadmi Party.
Apart from this, the Aam Aadmi Party and Arvind Kejriwal visited Gujarat and campaigned a lot to give free schemes and benefits. Due to the announcements of making electricity, water, and everything free, especially those living in poor and remote villages and living separately from the world, also trusted the party and some of them voted for the party.
Some people from the working class might also have voted for AAP
Also, there is a large section of employees and the working class in Gujarat, who are anti-government for their own reasons. And this anti-government atmosphere in the workforce was there not only in this election but also when Narendra Modi was serving as the chief minister of the state. However, due to the very low number of votes in proportion to the population, it does not make any difference to the government, but it definitely makes a difference for the Aam Aadmi Party. Especially considering the way the Aam Aadmi Party was leading the movements going on before the elections, the possibility of getting the votes of this class can not be ruled out.
Did AAP get any Muslim votes in Gujarat?
The Aam Aadmi Party may also have got good support from Muslim votes. A few days before the polling, a ‘Muslim Fighters Club’ in Ahmedabad organized a meeting and appealed to vote in support of the Aam Aadmi Party, which was also in the news. Although Muslim voters have been pro-Congress, the inaction of the Congress may have shifted them to the Aam Aadmi Party. In several Muslim-majority areas, AAP govt much more votes than AIMIM, which shows that the party got Muslim votes in good numbers.
As mentioned above, many of the voters in the third category also saw the work of the BJP and chose to vote for it and that can be seen in the results. The votes of voters dissatisfied with the rest of the government were then divided between the Aam Aadmi Party and the Congress. Therefore, the Aam Aadmi Party also got some benefit from the inaction of the Congress and they reached a 13 per cent vote share.
However, the reason why the Aam Aadmi Party could not make a big difference is that its votes were divided. The party could not get more seats because it had fewer voters in the first place and then they were already divided across the state in different seats. A person sitting in Kutch comments on a post on social media and a person sitting in Valsad can also comment on the same post. But to win a single seat, a party needs a majority of votes concentrated together in one place, which the Aam Aadmi Party did not have. Also, those who come and support on social media are also not required to vote.
Will the Aam Aadmi Party perform even better in 2027?
However, after contesting 182 seats for the first time and getting a vote share of 12 per cent, there is also a claim from the leaders and supporters of the Aam Aadmi Party that they will do well in the year 2027 and some claims are even there that they can remove the BJP from power. But such claims are highly optimistic.
Because, in politics, five years is a very big period. During these five years, if the BJP government sticks to the promises of the manifesto, if the government runs without getting into any controversy, then why should the voter who goes to vote after five years choose another option? Besides, by then, the BJP will also be even stronger benefitting in the elections.
On the other hand, the Aam Aadmi Party still has a lot of hard work to do in the organization. Besides, after the disappointing performance in this election, the enthusiasm of the workers may decrease and they may also go out to work hard. The possibilities are many, and there is ample time as well. But one thing has become very clear from these results – the Aam Aadmi Party and the Congress – there may be a discussion about who will be the opposition from these two, but removing the Bharatiya Janata Party from Gujarat does not seem possible for these two parties at any time in the current situation.
