At least 200 people have died in clashes between Sudan’s military and its main paramilitary force and control of Khartoum’s presidential palace and airport is now questionable following disputed claims from both sides. The fighting poses a threat to the stability of Sudan and the wider region.
An apparent power struggle between the two main factions of Sudan’s military dictatorship led to the outbreak of violence.
The paramilitaries of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), a militia group, support the former warlord Gen Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, also known as Hemedti, while the Sudanese armed forces generally support Gen Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, the de facto ruler of the country.
The power struggle dates back to the years before a 2019 uprising that toppled the dictator Omar al-Bashir. During that time, he amassed powerful security forces that he purposefully pitted against one another.
After Bashir was overthrown, attempts to establish a democratic, civilian-led administration failed, and diplomats in Khartoum issued a warning in early 2022 that they worried such unrest would break out. Tensions have increased more recently.
The US, Russia and gulf nations are closely watching the armed conflict in Sudan as the possibility of protracted fighting complicates an already long-running economic crisis in the country https://t.co/ojqk4x5poJ pic.twitter.com/XVjOodDlmu
— Reuters (@Reuters) April 18, 2023
Cause for the development of military rivalries
Bashir established the RSF in order to put an end to a rebellion in Darfur that had been going on for more than 20 years as a result of the locals being neglected politically and economically by the central government of Sudan. The ‘Janjaweed’ moniker, which grew to be connected with many crimes, was also used to refer to the RSF.
Before sending them to put down a rebellion in South Darfur, Bashir converted the Janjaweed into a semi-organized paramilitary force in 2013 and awarded their leaders military ranks. Later, many of them were sent to fight in the wars in Yemen and Libya.
In order to remove Bashir in 2019, the RSF under Hemedti and the regular military troops under Burhan worked together. Following that, the RSF cracked down on a peaceful protest that had been organised in front of Khartoum’s military headquarters, killing hundreds of protesters and raping dozens more.
A coup in October 2021 halted a power-sharing agreement with the citizens who organised the anti-Bashir rallies. This agreement was meant to hasten the transition to a democratic administration.
After the coup, the army regained power, but it was met with a fresh round of isolation, weekly protests, and worsening economic conditions. Tensions with Burhan surfaced as Hemedti swung behind the idea for a fresh transition.
Hemedti, who controls tens of thousands of experienced soldiers, has enormous riches through the export of gold from clandestine mines. He has long been unhappy with his role as the official deputy on the ruling council of Sudan.
Since the revolt, the desire of civilians for military oversight and RSF absorption into the regular armed forces has been a major source of friction.
What do civilians want
Additionally, civilians have demanded the transfer of valuable military holdings in trade, agriculture, and other sectors. These assets are a vital source of funding for an army that frequently outsources combat operations to local militias.
The search for justice on accusations of war crimes committed by the military and its allies in the Darfur War in 2003 is another source of disagreement.
In June 2019, military personnel were involved in the killings of pro-democracy protestors, and justice is also being sought in these cases. An official investigation’s delays have infuriated activists and civic organisations. They also demand justice for the at least 125 protesters who have been slain by security personnel since the coup in 2021.
Sudan’s geographic placement on the map attracts conflicts
Sudan is located in a conflict-prone region bordering the Red Sea, the Sahel, and the Horn of Africa. The likelihood of a smooth transition to a civilian-led government is hampered by its strategic location and agricultural resources, which have attracted regional power struggles.
Sudan’s relations with Ethiopia in particular have been strained over issues like disputed farmland along their border.
Significant geopolitical factors are also at play, as the US, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and other countries compete for influence in Sudan.
The transformation in Sudan has been viewed by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates as a chance to counteract Islamist influence in the area. They are members of the “Quad,” which also includes the US, Britain, and the UN and has funded mediation in Sudan. Western nations are concerned about the possibility of a Russian facility on the Red Sea, which Sudanese military officials have said they are open to.
