India’s gross domestic product (GDP) for the fiscal year 2022-2023 (FY23) exceeded expectations, growing by 7.2 per cent, surpassing the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) projected estimate of 7 per cent. According to the latest data from the National Statistical Office, the GDP growth gained significant momentum in the January-March quarter, expanding by an impressive 6.1 per cent.
This represents a notable improvement compared to the previous quarter, which had a growth rate of 4.4 per cent. It is worth mentioning that the growth rate during this period also exceeded earlier estimates, as the RBI initially projected a growth rate of 5.1 per cent. Furthermore, on an annual basis, the economy experienced growth rates of 13.1 per cent in FY23, with Q1 and Q2 growing at 6.2 per cent each.
As India surpasses its set targets and expectations in the GDP growth under the Modi government, it becomes necessary to recall how the opposition had fear mongered about the so-called economic crisis in the country and cast aspersions on the government for the alleged failure on the economic front.
Opposition questioning GDP before and during the COVID-19 pandemic period
Within one and a half months after Narendra Modi took oath as the Prime Minister of India for the second time, Delhi’s chief minister Arvind Kejriwal tweeted on 4th July 2019, “Economic Survey presented in the Parliament today signals towards worrying signs for our economy. The GDP growth rate is virtually stagnant and all indicators point that we are in a slowdown.”
Economic Survey presented in the Parliament today signals towards worrying signs for our economy.
— Arvind Kejriwal (@ArvindKejriwal) July 4, 2019
GDP growth rate is virtually stagnant and all indicators point that we are in a slowdown.
On 31st August 2019, Priyanka Gandhi Vadra tweeted, “It is clear from the GDP growth rate that the BJP government, which boasts of good days, has punctured the condition of the economy. There is neither GDP growth nor the strengthening of the rupee. Jobs are missing. Now make it clear whose handiwork is this to destroy the economy?”
GDP विकास दर से साफ है कि अच्छे दिन का भोंपू बजाने वाली भाजपा सरकार ने अर्थव्यवस्था की हालत पंचर कर दी है।
— Priyanka Gandhi Vadra (@priyankagandhi) August 31, 2019
न GDP ग्रोथ है न रुपए की मजबूती। रोजगार गायब हैं।
अब तो साफ करो कि अर्थव्यवस्था को नष्ट कर देने की ये किसकी करतूत है?#EconomicSlowdown#EconomyCrisis
On 30th November 2019, Akhilesh Yadav tweeted, “The BJP government will set a record of many ‘historic declines’ in the history of independent India… decline of GDP in the economic sector; Decline of harmony in the social sphere; The decline of morality of those in power in politics and the decline of expectations in the mental sphere.”
भाजपा की सरकार आज़ाद भारत के इतिहास में कई ‘ऐतिहासिक गिरावटों’ का कीर्तिमान स्थापित करके जायेगी… आर्थिक क्षेत्र में GDP की गिरावट; सामाजिक क्षेत्र में सौहार्द की गिरावट; राजनीति में सत्ताधारियों की नैतिकता की गिरावट व मानसिक क्षेत्र में उम्मीदों की गिरावट…#NoMoreBJP pic.twitter.com/H7vlj7za7M
— Akhilesh Yadav (@yadavakhilesh) November 30, 2019
On 7th September 2020, TMC MP Mahua Moitra tweeted, “Biggest Ever Fiscal Stimulus Package (Not) of ₹20 lakh crore led to Worst Ever GDP contraction of -23.9% Impossible is nothing for Hon’ble FM!”
Biggest Ever Fiscal Stimulus Package (Not) of ₹20 lakh crore led to Worst Ever GDP contraction of -23.9%
— Mahua Moitra (@MahuaMoitra) September 7, 2020
Impossible is nothing for Hon’ble FM!
On 10th September 2020, Rahul Gandhi said, “The policies of the Modi government have caused the loss of crores of jobs and a historic fall in GDP. It (the Modi government) has crushed the future of India’s youth.”
On 25th February 2021, Shashi Tharoor tweeted, “The only GDP growth we have seen in Modi-ruled India is of Gas, Diesel & Petrol! The gas started early, as this 2014 video confirms.” Tharoor also shared a video in which Modi was talking about the promises of reducing petrol prices.
The only GDP growth we have seen in Modi-ruled India is of Gas, Diesel & Petrol! The gas started early, as this 2014 video confirms: pic.twitter.com/QGpm4cnpMs
— Shashi Tharoor (@ShashiTharoor) February 25, 2021
On 1st September 2021, Priyanka Chaturvedi tweeted, “GDP Q1: 2019-20: 5.4%, 2020-21: -24.4%, and 2021-22: 20.1%. GDP in Absolute Numbers: 2019-20: 35.7 lakh crores, 2020-21: 27 lakh crores, and 2021-22: 32.4 lakh crores. Recovery yes but a long way away from celebrating growth. Stop the chest-thumping already.”
GDP Q1:
— Priyanka Chaturvedi🇮🇳 (@priyankac19) September 1, 2021
2019-20 : 5.4%
2020-21 : -24.4%
2021-22 : 20.1%
GDP in Absolute Numbers :
2019-20 : 35.7 lakh crore
2020-21 : 27 lakh crore
2021-22 : 32.4 lakh crore
Recovery yes but long way away from celebrating growth.
Stop the chest thumping already.
In 2022, Raghuram Rajan said in a conversation with Rahul Gandhi that India would be lucky if it achieves 5 per cent GDP growth in 2022-23.
Raghuram Rajan in this dated conversation (2022) with Rahul Gandhi, sounded less like an economist, and more like Rajdeep Sardesai, when he said, ‘India would be lucky to do 5% GDP growth next year (FY2022-23)’.
— Amit Malviya (@amitmalviya) June 1, 2023
Fact is India has registered 7.2% GDP growth in FY2022-23. 7.2%!… pic.twitter.com/8GNENPjYys
However, all these ‘predictions’ have been proved wrong with the latest numbers on the Indian economy.
Morgan Stanley’s recent report analyses India’s growth story
On 29th May 2023, Morgan Stanley published a report titled ‘India Equity Strategy and Economics : How India Has Transformed in Less than a Decade’. In that report, Morgan Stanley said, “This India is different from what it was in 2013. In a short span of 10 years, India has gained positions in the world order with significant positive consequences for the macro and market outlook.”
While noting top big changes in the last decade in India, the Morgan Stanley report mentioned how the corporate tax in India is about to stabilize at 15 per cent and how the infrastructure in India is growing at a pace like never before. Highways construction, broadband internet subscription, renewable electricty production, and railway electrification are the key areas focussed by the Modi government in the last 9 years of its rule and the results of this effort is now reflected in the economic growth.
After underlining the supply-side policy reforms, Morgan Stanley also took cognizance of the formalisation of the Indian economy. The growth story of India on this parameter is characterised by the record GST collection India is adding every month and the digital transactions constituting a higher percentage of the GDP thanks to the UPI revolution.
The report also forecasted India’s growth for the next decade and concluded that India will emerge as a key driver for Asia and global growth. Morgan and Stanley’s report observed that India’s growth in the next decade will be similar to China’s growth trajectory between 2007 and 2011. It also predicted that the GDP and the productivity growth differentials will swing in India’s favour as compared to China. furthermore, Morgan and Stanley’s report looked so optimistic about India’s economic growth that it confidently put forth that the new India will drive one-fifth of the global growth by the end of this decade.
Conclusion with key numerical data
Despite the ill-wishes of the opposition, India’s economy has performed well under Narendra Modi, especially in the second tenure. The GST collections were at an all-time high of Rs 1.87 lakh crore in April before dipping slightly to 1.57 lakh crore in May. GST collection remained above 1.4 lakh crore for the last consecutive 14 months.
👉 ₹1,57,090 crore gross #GST revenue collected for May 2023; clocks 12% Year-on-Year growth
— Ministry of Finance (@FinMinIndia) June 1, 2023
👉 Monthly #GST revenues more than ₹1.4 lakh crore for 14 months in a row, with ₹1.5 lakh crore crossed for the 5th time since inception of #GST
👉 Revenue from import of goods 12%… pic.twitter.com/7ghdLDW3jt
India’s export has surged by 14% and the manufacturing PMI (purchasing manager’s index) is at 58.7 which is the highest in the last 31 months. In fact, the manufacturing PMI has now spent 22 consecutive months above the key level of 50.
In the week that ended on April 28, India’s forex reserves stood at a 10-month high of $588.78 billion. India’s retail inflation rate is marked 4.7%. This is the lowest figure in the last 18 months and falls well within the target range set by the central bank.
Dispatches of passenger vehicles are also an important indicator of economic growth. According to the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers, India’s domestic passenger vehicle dispatches saw a 13 per cent year-on-year (YoY) jump in April 2023, as demand remained robust across segments. Coal production figures are an indicator of industrial growth in the country. The coal production went up by 12% in the last year, while it increased by 23% overall in the four years of the second tenure of the Modi government.
It is because of the Modi government’s meticulous execution of good economic policies in the national interests – especially in its second tenure – that the country is seeing economic growth translating into these numbers. No wonder India has performed better on the economic front when the opposition was willfully expecting it to doom during and after the pandemic.
