On 7th July, several pro-Congress social media handles attacked Prime Minister Narendra Modi on inflation with the hashtag ‘ModiFlation’. They claimed that the prices of daily-use products skyrocketed and increased 2-3 times over the past ten years since PM Modi took charge in 2014. Comparing the prices from 2013, Congress and its followers attacked the Government of India, claiming the present government has been unable to control the prices.
The trigger point, it appears, was the price of seasonal vegetable tomatoes that are selling anywhere between Rs 120 to Rs 150 per KG. Notably, perishable vegetables’ price increases yearly during monsoon owing to limited supply. The prices often come down within a couple of months to normal. However, political parties habitually used this period to attack the government, claiming it failed to control inflation.
Data shows BJP kept inflation under check
Coming to the allegations of “uncontrolled” inflation in the past ten years, the data shows a whole different story. OpIndia studied the data from World Bank since 1991 to find out how different political parties or alliances performed while being in power at the centre. As per the data from 1991 to 1995, when Congress was in power, the inflation stayed between 13.90 per cent in 1991 to 6.33 per cent in 1993, which was the only month inflation was under 10 per cent. In 1992, it was 11.80 per cent, and in 1994 & 1995, it was 10.20 per cent.
In 1996, Janata Dal came to power, and there was a slight drop in the inflation rate. In 1996, the inflation rate was 8.98 per cent, while in 1997, it was 7.16 per cent.
In March 1998, BJP took power from Janata Dal. For the first year, which was 1998, inflation was 13.20 per cent. However, inflation was under strict control in the following years and did not cross 5 per cent even once. In 1999, it fell to 4.67 per cent, followed by 4.01 per cent in 2000, 3.78 per cent in 2001, 4.30 per cent in 2002, 3.81 per cent in 2003 and 3.77 per cent in 2004.
After one year of Congress rule, the inflation rose slightly to 4.25 per cent in 2005. That was the only year under UPA rule when inflation was under 5 per cent. It was 5.8 per cent in 2006. 6.37 per cent in 2007 8.35 per cent in 2008, 10.90 per cent in 2009, 12 per cent in 2010, 8.91 per cent in 2011, 9.48 per cent in 2012 and 10 per cent in 2013.
Within months BJP-led NDA government came to power in 2014, inflation dropped to 6.67 per cent from 10 per cent. In 2015, it went below 5 per cent at 4.91 per cent, followed by 4.95 per cent in 2016, 3.33 per cent in 2017, 3.94 per cent in 2018 and 3.73 in 2019.
In 2020, the Covid pandemic hit India hard, adversely affecting the economy. The production and supply chain was affected by the pandemic. However, the inflation rate was kept under check. It ballooned up to 6.62 per cent in 2020, followed by 5.13 per cent in 2021, 6.70 per cent in 2022, and RBI has forecasted it will be 5.1 per cent in 2023.
Data shows that the inflation under the BJP-led NDA government has mostly stayed under 5 per cent per year. On the other hand, UPA managed to keep inflation under 5 per cent only in the first year of its rule after NDA lost the Lok Sabha election in 2014. Otherwise, under Congress-led UPA, inflation always remained over 5 per cent, with seven instances where inflation went beyond 10 per cent per year.
