The Madhya Pradesh (MP) Assembly elections are scheduled for 17th November 2023, and the results will be announced on 3rd December with four other states: Rajasthan, Telangana, Mizoram and Chhattisgarh.
In the 2018 elections, though Congress won, it could not hold the state for long as then-Congress leader Jyotiraditya Scindia and almost two dozen lawmakers shifted to the Bharatiya Janata Party. BJP had a slightly higher vote share percentage, with 41.02 per cent on the charts, compared to Congress, which had a 40.89 per cent vote share. However, Congress won 114 out of 230 seats, forming a coalition government with the support of MLAs from Party (SP), Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), and Independent candidates. The government ran for 15 months and collapsed due to the defection of the MLAs from the Congress party to the BJP.
Congress hopes to regain power in MP, but this time, they mostly rely on the ‘Muslim vote factor’. Reports suggest that out of 230 assembly seats, 22 MP seats can be influenced by the Muslim votes. The margin of victory in bi-party politics in MP has always been less than 20 seats, which might have prompted Congress to lure Muslim voters in upcoming elections.
Notably, Congress has already announced its candidates for all seats except for the Aalampur seat in the Betul district. In 2018, Muslim votes were crucial in Congress’s victory as the party managed to increase its vote share by 3-4 per cent. The coordinator of the Madhya Pradesh Muslim Vikas Parishad affiliated with the Congress, Mohammed Mahir, pointed out that the surge in the minority vote shared helped the Congress win the elections by a narrow margin in 2018.
Interestingly, Congress Unit Chief Kamal Nath asserted in 2018 that if 90 per cent of the minority votes favoured Congres, they could form a government. His appeal worked in Congress’s favour, adding around 10-12 seats to the party’s tally that had eluded them in the 2008 and 2013 elections.
According to the 2011 census, the Muslim population in Madhya Pradesh stands at 7 per cent. The minority population has increased to 9-10 per cent, as per the estimates. Their presence in 47 assembly seats is notable, while 22 out of these 47 can go either way, depending on how Muslims vote. Reports suggest that in those 22 seats, the Muslim voter base ranges from 15,000 to 35,000, making them pivotal in the event of a closely contested election. Some of the important seats among these constituencies include Bhopal, Indore, Burhanpur, Jaora, Jabalpur and others.
Recently, Congress has faced criticism from the BJP over the alleged betrayal of the minority community in politics. Though Congress aims to gain a substantial share of the Muslim votes, they field a limited number of minority candidates. On the other hand, the BJP flaunts to have not only nominated minority candidates but also focused on the social and economic development of the Muslim population.
The two major parties are competing to support the critical minority demographic in the upcoming assembly elections, which will provide insights into evolving voting dynamics in the state. Though the Aam Aadmi Party is also competing in the Assembly Elections, their presence may not dent the vote share of any of BJP or Congress.
