After the conclusion of voting in Telangana, several poll agencies and media houses released exit poll results predicting the outcome of assembly elections in the five states of Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Mizoram, Rajasthan and Telangana. However, there is no uniformity in the predictions with different news outlets giving different results for the states.
As per most of the exit polls, BJP is expected to retain Madhya Pradesh and win Rajasthan with narrow margins, while Congress will retain Chhattisgarh with a surprise victory in Telangana, and MNF is expected to retain power in Mizoram.
One striking point about the exit polls is that most of them are predicting close contests in almost all the states, and there is no clean sweep predicted. Moreover, all exit polls have given a wide range for each party in all the states, making it difficult to make a clear prediction.
Madhya Pradesh
While it was widely predicted before the polls that BJP is facing a tough challenge in Madhya Pradesh, most pollsters are predicting a close win for the Shivraj Singh Chouhan govt. Nonetheless, the two sides appear to be engaged in a very close battle. The contest is anticipated to be a nail-biter and the outcome on the result day may surprise everyone, as some agencies are predicting Congress win and others showing a very close contest.
India Today – Axis, News24 – Today’s Chanakya and Republic Matrize are predicting a clear win for BJP, while ABP-C-Voter is predicting a Congress win. Others are predicting a very close result. As the chief minister with the longest tenure in the state, Shivraj Singh Chouhan’s continued service would be a personal triumph if he manages to secure a victory for his party in the state.
Rajasthan
There is no surprise for Rajasthan as per the exit polls, as all of them are predicting a BJP win, which was widely expected. Congress comes in a distant second with an average of 80 seats while the BJP seems to have a clear sweeping victory in Rajasthan with an average of 107 seats while it only needs 101 seats to form government.
The greatest number of seats is awarded to the BJP by Matrize which forecasted the party to win between 115 and 130 seats and the Congress party is only expected to win between 65 and 75 seats. Notably, this might not surprise many because the state has a history of switching the ruling party every five years. India Today-Axis the exception with predicting slightly more seats for Congress in a hung assembly. All other polls are predicting a comfortable win for BJP.
Telangana
The Bhartiya Rashtriya Samiti, which is currently in power in Telangana, is expected to be overthrown by the Congress causing a significant upset for the party’s president and incumbent chief minister K. Chandrashekar Rao. Apart from Polstart, all other agencies are predicting a Congress win.
If the exit polls are to be believed K. Chandrashekar Rao won’t be receiving any good news as his BRS is expected to win only around 45 seats while the state needs 60 seats to establish government. However, with over 60 seats predicted for the party in the assembly poll, Congress could get the opportunity to rejoice. Asaduddin Owaisi’s The All India Majlis-E-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) is predicted to perform similarly to previous elections with just around five seats. Importantly, BJP is projected to make inroads in the southern state with around 6 seats.
It is notable that India Today-Axis didn’t publish Telangana numbers today, saying they will publish the predictions tomorrow after a detailed analysis.
Chhattisgarh
Most exit polls are predicting that Congress will retain Chhattishgarh, showing a pro-incumbency verdict. Congress is projected to win around 50 seats and secure another term for current chief minister Bhupesh Baghel while BJP could come second with around 40 seats in Chhattisgarh. Notably, Chhattisgarh is the only state where all exit polls are giving more seats to Congress, although the margin is very close.
Mizoram
According to the figures, the Zoram People’s Movement and the Mizo National Front are in a close battle in Mizoram and the Congress and BJP are performing poorly. However, there is a split verdict for the state, with some agencies predicting a return of the MNF govt, while others giving more seats to ZPM. However overall, ZPM is expected to win the elections, going by exit poll results. It is notable that while MBF is an NDA ally at the centre, there on alliance of the party with BJP in Mizoram.
BJP doesn’t have a strong presence in Mizoram which has negatively impacted its electoral success there while the Congress is likewise failing to produce any noteworthy results despite having a firm party base in the northeastern state. However, given the close results the exit polls have predicted, no party may be able to win a clear majority, and BJP and Congress can become king-maker even with only a few seats in the 40-member house.
Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh are going to be direct contact between Congress and BJP while the fight in Telangana is between the two along with BRS which is a major contender there. The main competition in Mizoram is largely between MNF and ZPM. Now, all political parties are eagerly awaiting the announcement of the election results on 3 December.
The outcome of these elections would have a significant influence on the 2024 Lok Sabha election where Prime Minister Narendra Modi hopes to win a third term for the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the Congress and its I.N.D.I. Alliance would battle it out for control of the next central government.
