Just two weeks before the assembly elections in Madhya Pradesh, an opinion poll has predicted that BJP will return to power in the state. The latest survey done by Pollsters India predicts that BJP is expected to win 124 seats in the 230-member house, while Congress will get 97 seats.
BJP has 128 MLAs in the current house, while Congress has 98, therefore, the poll predicts a status quo.
A press release issued by Pollsters India said that the “ruling Bharatiya Janata Party is expected to retain power in Madhya Pradesh through its welfare measures, combined with the popularity of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chauhan which gives the party almost 5% edge over the Congress.”
It added that BJP is getting into the decisive phase of the election with a significant lead and the Congress would have to cover a fair distance in the final 2 weeks of the campaign. As per Pollsters India, women are expected to be the primary reason for BJP’s performance in the ensuing elections as the BJP is getting much stronger support from women, across all sections.
The poll agency said that welfare schemes of the government have resulted in the popularity of the ruling party among women, and the party is leading by almost 20% among female voters. BJP also leading among OBCs, while Congress is leading among SCs, STs and minorities, the poll agency added.
CM Shivraj Singh Chauhan continues to be the most popular face of the state as 41% of the respondents rated his performance as excellent.
The survey predicts a 44.7% vote share for BJP, up 3.1% from 2018 elections, while the vote share of Congress is expected to come down by 2.1% to 39.4%.
Even though BJP has been in power for 19 years, except for 15 months when Congress was in power led by Kamal Nath, the party has benefited from a series of welfare schemes implemented by the govt, the report said. 31% of the respondents said that these schemes were expected to be a game-changer, 34% indicated that it would have some impact on the election while ⅓rd of the respondents of the survey indicated that these schemes would have no impact on the election.
Shivraj continues to be seen positively by the people as 44% of the respondents stated that his tenure as the CM has been the best while 21% stated that former Chief Minister Kamal Nath had performed better. 5% of the respondents stated that Uma Bharti performed the best during her short 1-year stint while 3% rated that Digvijay Singh performed the best as CM.
The performance of the union government and the popularity and PM Modi will also help the BJP in the state, the survey stated. 54% of the respondents stated that the performance of the Prime Minister was excellent while 35% said his performance was satisfactory. Only 22 of the respondents stated that they were not satisfied with the performance of the Prime Minister.
However, the respondents expressed concerns about inflation and unemployment during the BJP government.
The survey by Pollsters Indias took place between 3 October and 30 October and covered 60 assembly constituencies. A total of 35,268 samples were collected, both through on-the-ground questioning and telephonic interviews with respondents. The expected margin of error is +/- 3% at macro level and +/- 5% at the micro level while the confidence interval is 95%, said the agency.
