Most Muslim voters in Uttar Pradesh (UP) are drifting away from the Samajwadi Party (SP) and going to the Congress ahead of 2024 Lok Sabha elections, a report by The Sunday Guardian has reported quoting SP insiders.
“Our party’s recent survey has shown that more than 60% Muslims may turn their back on the SP and vote for the Congress, which, if it happens, will decimate the SP over a period of time as Muslims and Yadavs comprise the party’s core vote base,” the report quoted a party insider.
But SP spokesperson Kirti Nidhi Pandey reportedly said that only the SP can defeat the BJP in the state. “One thing is clear in Uttar Pradesh—if there is a party that can defeat the BJP in the state, it is the SP. We don’t think the minority vote is drifting away from us, because Muslims also know that we are the only party that can defeat the BJP, Congress doesn’t have that credibility,” Pandey said.
Muslims constitute around 19 per cent of voters in the state and dominate in around 30 Lok Sabha seats out of UP’s 80.
According to the report, there are echoes within the SP about growing resentment among Muslims over Akhilesh Yadav’s public assertion of “PDA”, which means “pichre” (backward), Dalit and “alpasankhak” (minority), where Muslims have been put under an umbrella term.
The report cites party leaders indicating that the recent course of events showed Akhilesh as “less responsive” about Muslims, which has not left a good impression on the voter base in the state.
A senior leader reportedly admitted to the same saying, “That Muslims are drifting away from SP doesn’t need any research. It is obvious. One can see it, hear it and feel it. The management of Muslims by the top leadership (Akhilesh Yadav) has been poor. He is no longer a leader with whom Muslims can connect like they used to with Mulayam Singh Yadav. One notable reason is that our party chief has stopped connecting with the grassroots. Voters have become more mature and have realised that he steps out just months before elections. He is nowhere to be seen on the other days.”
“More than 80% Muslims voted for the SP in the last Assembly elections and yet there was no conclusive result (as SP was unable to form government in the state). So, they will eventually start thinking that we have voted inconsequentially to SP so why not vote for a party that is more accommodative of us like Congress. If they vote for Congress this time, Congress will try to make ground for itself. It will start preparing to revive itself and this will directly hurt SP in the Assembly elections in 2027,” said another party leader.
According to the report, the Muslim voter base now votes with the aim to defeat the BJP leading to a significant change in voting behaviour ever since the saffron party came to power in 2014. Unlike before, when the Muslim votes got fragmented and were cast to different candidates, now their votes go to the candidate with the highest capability to defeat the BJP candidate.
A political analyst quoted by The Sunday Guardian said, “They vote to defeat the BJP candidates. And such a trend has become more clear after Karnataka elections where a chunk of Muslims who were traditional voters of Janata Dal Secular left them and voted for the Congress. UP could see a similar trend.”
The development has led to a power tussle between the INDI Alliance block partners Congress and SP. The report claims that the Congress leadership has drawn a strategy where they could form an alliance without the SP, which has been holding on to 60 Lok Sabha seats.
The SP reportedly wants to give only 20 seats to other parties, which has become a point of contention between the bloc. “If you obstinately hold on to 60 seats out of 80, how is this being accommodative? How does it send a message that SP wants to have an alliance? It doesn’t send any such message,” the report quoted a senior SP leader.
Recently, Akhilesh Yadav had expressed hope that the grand old party would be defeated by a coalition of smaller parties under the PDA umbrella in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. While addressing rallies in poll-bound Madhya Pradesh, Former UP CM trained guns at the grand old party accusing it of acting as a “B-team of the BJP”.
