On 13th December, Times Now and ETG Research published the results of an opinion survey for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. The survey results indicated that the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, is poised to make a historic return for the third consecutive term with an estimated 323 seats. The I.N.D.I. Alliance is expected to be overshadowed by the unmatchable popularity of PM Modi among the masses across the country, as per the survey conducted by ETG Research, I.N.D.I. Alliance may get around 163 seats in the general elections.
The survey forecasted a dominant performance by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). The saffron party alone might clinch approximately 308-328 seats in the Lok Sabha Elections next year. On the contrary, Congress is not looking good regarding seats and may have to satisfy its ‘grand old ego’ with 52 to 72 seats. Interestingly, the survey showed that despite the collaborative efforts of 18 opposition parties coming together as The Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (I.N.D.I.A.) to challenge PM Modi-led central government, the current ruling party is set to make a comeback with thumping numbers. According to the survey, the Alliance would not dent the popularity of PM Modi in Lok Sabha Elections.
Notably, the survey has shown that NDA may lose some seats compared to the 2019 tally, but the number is more than enough to bring the saffron party back into the house with a stronghold on most seats. In the 2019 Lok Sabha Elections, the BJP-led NDA secured 353 seats. BJP alone crossed the 300 mark (303 seats), making it the highest number of seats any non-Congress seat guaranteed in the General elections. On the contrary, Congress managed to secure only 52 seats.
The survey drew parallels between the upcoming Lok Sabha elections 2024 and recently conducted Assembly elections in five states, three of which were dominated by BJP. It is expected that the BJP will continue its dominance in the Hindi belt in the 2024 General Elections, especially in the states of Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh. These states add 134 seats in the kitty. Interestingly, NDA/BJP won 117 seats out of 134 in these three states in 2019, while in 2014, NDA/BJP secured 123 seats. The results are expected to be similar in the upcoming general elections.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi has played a vital role in the victories in the 2014 and 2019 General elections and recent Assembly Elections. Notably, in the Assembly Elections in Rajasthan, MP and Chhattisgarh, PM’s “Modi Ki Guarantee” campaign worked very well.
The political landscape in the country is ever-changing, and such surveys provide a better understanding of the ground reality. The opposition parties under the banner of I.N.D.I. Alliance has not decided who is going to be their prime minister candidate. On the other hand, the BJP has already stated that the 2024 elections will be fought under the leadership of PM Modi. As many leaders in the opposition alliance would like to be the PM, like Rahul Gandhi, Mamata Banerjee, Nitish Kumar and, of course, Arvind Kejriwal, it is going to be difficult for them to finalise a common name. There is a good chance that the Alliance will break down at the time of seat division itself.
