The Islamic Republic of Pakistan is slated to go to polls on Thursday (8th February) amid a milieu of social, political, and economic woes on an unprecedented scale. Around 167 political parties registered with the Election Commission, along with independents, will compete for 266 seats in the National Assembly, which is the lower house of Pakistani parliament.
Apart from the 266 seats, the National Assembly also sets aside 60 seats for women and 10 seats for non-Muslims. These seats are distributed among political parties based on their performance in the national elections.
Just like India, Pakistan also follows a first-past-the-post system. Under this, the candidate who receives the highest number of votes in a given constituency is elected as its representative.
Pakistan comprises four provinces—Punjab, Sindh, Balochistan, and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa—as well as the Islamabad Capital Territory. The populations of these provinces vary significantly, resulting in differences in the number of seats they hold in the National Assembly.
Punjab, with 141 seats (plus 32 reserved for women), holds the highest number of seats, followed by Sindh (61, plus 14 reserved), Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (45, plus 10 reserved), Balochistan (16, plus 4 reserved), and Islamabad (3).
As the political landscape is currently poised in Pakistan, PML (N) Chief and Former PM Nawaz Sharif is said to be in the poll position as the “preferred” candidate of the Pakistani establishment followed by PPP’s Bilawal Bhutto Zardari.
The Backdrop of this year’s General Election in Pakistan
On the economic front, inflation in Pakistan may breach the 30% mark while its currency, Pakistani Rupee, has suffered a devaluation of nearly 50% compared to the US Dollar over the past two years.
The country has faced widespread protests over power outages and increases in prices of basic amenities like aata (flour), dal (pulses), and fuel, among others. The country is currently receiving a $3 billion bailout from the IMF, which has forced its government to make cuts in social spending, thus further aggravating the anger in the general populace against the government and its army.
On the political front, a massive crackdown has been ongoing for more than a year against Imran Khan-led Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party. Former PM Khan who is currently in jail and facing multiple prison sentences still commands considerate support and leads the popularity charts in the country. However, he has been barred from competing in elections and his party has been stripped of its national symbol – a bat. With the most popular leader not allowed to be in the election fray, the outcome of the results could further erode trust in the democratic setup among the Pakistani populace.
It has been a long-standing demand of Clerics and militant groups in Pakistan to shun “democracy” alleging it to be a ‘Western construct’ and return to a stricter interpretation of Islamic law, or Shariah, on everyday life in Pakistan. It can also be gauged from the fact that Pakistan, in general, has been recording significantly lower voter turnout. In the 2018 elections, it stood at around 52%. Even the highest-ever turnout was recorded at around 61% in 1971 which is comparatively lesser in other democracies. Additionally, the nation is prone to coups and no Pakistani PM has been able to complete the full term of five years in office.
Notably, a Political Analyst, Yasmeen said that with mounting political divisions, and a loss of trust in the government and the system, radical Islam could benefit in a country with a history of militancy.
The sharp political divide has created a wedge between supporters of Imran Khan and the Pakistani army, creating a simmering civil war kind of environment. The Army has held PTI leaders and workers responsible for the “insurrection” and attack on army buildings on 9th May 2023 which the PTI Chief has firmly denied.
It has further worsened with recurrent occurrences of blasts, terror incidents, and attacks on its security forces including police and Army. Evidently, at least 10 police personnel were killed and six others were injured in a pre-dawn attack on Monday by militants on a police station in Northern Pakistan’s Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa province.
Further, insurgent groups in Northwestern parts of the country, Balochistan, Sindh, and activists in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir have increased their activities, attacks, and aggressive protests against the Pakistani administration. In addition to the domestic troubles, the country also got involved in a mini-war with Iran following the latter’s air strike on Pakistani territories.
Sympathy for the Pakistani Army and Political tides have turned in Pakistan
In the political context, elections in Pakistan have always been marred with allegations of malpractice and the direct “influence” of the Pakistani Army in deciding the fate of the elections. However, this year, the Army and one of the major Political parties (PTI) have been embroiled in an ugly spat with the former keen to stop Imran Khan at all costs from ever coming back to power and install a ‘friendly administration’ if not a ‘puppet’ government.
Many political experts believe that Nawaz Sharif is the top contender for the Prime Ministerial post. Notably, Sharif (senior) who has been Pakistani premier thrice returned to the country in October 2023 following four years of self-imposed exile in London. The PML (N) leader had gone into exile to avoid serving prison sentences. Within weeks of his return, he was absolved of past convictions as his sentences were thrown out and his convictions were overturned.
Sharif was ousted in 2017 over corruption allegations and was banned for life from holding public office. He lived in exile in London and was thus considered out of race from Pakistani politics. But after the meteoric fall of Imran Khan in the eyes of the Pakistani Army, Nawaz Sharif ‘resurrected’ as the security establishment’s preferred candidate.
It is important to note that Imran Khan was earlier the Army’s preferred candidate. After the 2018 elections, Khan was accused of being a “selected rather than elected” PM but he was unceremoniously ousted in April 2022. He is currently behind bars and banned from contesting the vote.
Khan was arrested in May 2023 amid an unprecedented war of words with Pakistani Army officers. While he alleged that Army officers were hatching plans to assassinate or falsely implicate and incarcerate him, the Army accused him of corruption, indulging in “Un-Islamic activities”, leaking state secrets, and leading “insurrection”.
Incidentally, Imran Khan has been found “guilty” in three cases – Toshakhana (corrupt practice and stealing), Iddat case (Un-Islamic act), Cypher case (leaking secrets) – and facing prison sentences of 10, 14, and 7 years to be served concurrently. Additionally, he is facing more than 150 legal cases.
Khan is still believed to be the most popular leader in the current Pakistani political setup and would win hands down in a “fair” election, as per political analysts. That is why, the Pakistani Army is not taking any chances to avoid that outcome and adopting every trick to fudge election results.
For this, the Army led a massive operation to arrest the rank and file of PTI in charges of “insurrection” on 9th May 2023. Fearing repression, dozens of senior PTI leaders like Fawad Chaudhary and Shireen Mazari have either left politics or switched parties. Many known faces of the party are in hiding, alleging that false cases are being filed against them. Whereas, Imran Khan and his second-in-command Shah Mahmood Qureshi are behind bars.
In another massive jolt to Imran Khan, his party was stripped of its party symbol – a cricket bat. Following the Pakistani Supreme Court and Election Commission order that PTI can’t use its party symbol, thousands of erstwhile PTI leaders would have to contest as independents, thus making it tough for Imran Khan’s supporters while they cast their vote. It will also be a mounting challenge for winning ‘Independent’ candidates to extend support to Imran Khan with its army dead against it. It is alleged that PTI leaders who are contesting as Independent could join other parties after the elections, fearing repression from the Army.
Furthermore, there has been unprecedented censorship on Imran Khan and his party with Television channels asking not to give airwaves to him and omitting his mention from everywhere and the administration restricting internet connection at times of his “online Jalsa” (crowd gathering).
Pertinent to note that, unlike India, Pakistan does not employ electronic voting machines. Instead, it depends on ballot boxes for voting, a method susceptible to allegations of tampering or manipulation, especially given the influence and power the Pakistani Army wields. It is also alleged that political outfits mushroom at the time of elections at the behest of the Pakistani army to affect the election result in a pre-determined manner.
Can Prisoner No. 804 hit a home run
While the election outcome is considered pre-determined in favour of the Army’s pick, the 71-year-old PTI leader Imran Khan has been campaigning from behind the bars by using chatbots, AI, and social media, and rallying his supporters and voters.
As per media reports, Imran Khan, who is currently lodged at Adiala jail in Rawalpindi, is very active on his social media channels and campaigning for his various candidates.
The social media platforms of PTI have more followers than the combined strength of the other two parties — (PPP) and the PML (Nawaz). The Imran Khan-led PTI has been holding digital rallies on TikTok to rally support.
PTI is reportedly using technology to produce Khan’s speeches through notes that are being smuggled out of prison by his lawyers. His notes are being converted into speeches using AI and broadcast on large screens at public rallies or streamed online so that for his voters it seems that their leader is addressing them from behind bars.
Here is an example of an authorised AI-generated voice message of PTI Founding Chairman Imran Khan.
”میرے پاکستانیو، اگلے تین دن آپ نے اپنے رشتے داروں اور محلے داروں تک میرے امیدواروں کے نام اور ان کے انتخابی نشان پہنچانے کی ذمہ دادی لینی ہے“
— Imran Khan (@ImranKhanPTI) February 4, 2024
3rd authorised AI Generated Voice message of Founding Chairman PTI Imran Khan pic.twitter.com/FYwcqwwNti
In another AI-generated speech, Khan reportedly said, “If you come out in large numbers, there is no way we can lose. Do not fear anyone.”
In December 2023, Imran Khan’s party went as far as releasing a voice clone of their leader to deliver impassioned speeches on his behalf. The party asserts that this marks the inaugural use of AI for political objectives in Pakistan.
However, some experts believe that online support wouldn’t be enough. The Army had restricted the actions of PTI and it can’t hit the ground running which is the key element to make appeal to every voter.
Pakistan elections’ result
The results of the February 8th elections in Pakistan will also be decisive in determining whether the Pakistani Army, whose reputation has suffered an unprecedented blow and has lost its unquestionable grip over the power corridors in Pakistan, will regain control by resorting to its traditional means of power assertion in the Islamic nation.
