The 2024 General Elections, the most significant political battle in the democratic system, is approaching. In the next week or two, the Election Commission of India will declare the dates for the Lok Sabha elections. Political leaders are already campaigning tirelessly for the elections with BJP also releasing its first list of candidates.
Powered by the ‘Modi-wave’, the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) has set an ambitious goal of winning more than 400 Lok Sabha seats. In contrast, the Congress and other opposition parties have established I.N.D.I.A. bloc to put an end to the BJP’s winning streak.
Amid this, the India TV-CNX Opinion Poll tried to decode the voters’ mood ahead of the Lok Sabha elections. As per the India TV-CNX Opinion Poll released on Tuesday (5th March), BJP-led NDA is likely to win 378 seats while rival I.N.D.I.A. bloc may secure 98 seats in Lok Sabha Elections 2024.
“The opposition Congress-led I.N.D.I.A. bloc (minus Trinamool Congress) may win 98 seats, while others including the Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress (TMC), the Jagan Mohan Reddy’s YSRCP, the TDP led by Chandrababu Naidu, Naveen Patnaik’s BJD, and independents may get the remaining 67 seats,” said the survey.
The survey also stated that the BJP is projected to win 335 seats on its own, including a clean sweep of all 26 seats in Gujarat, all 29 seats in Madhya Pradesh, all 25 seats in Rajasthan, all 10 seats in Haryana, all 7 seats in Delhi, all 5 seats in Uttarakhand, and all 4 seats in Himachal Pradesh.
Regarding the seats in Kerala, the poll suggested that the Congress-led United Democratic Front (Kerala) would maintain its lead. However, BJP might win 3 seats in the state, which would be the first time the party will open its account in the state.
According to the survey, the UDF may win 11 seats, while the LDF may gain an advantage in the remaining seats. The opinion poll predicts a close race between BJP candidate Rajeev Chandrasekhar and Congress leader Shashi Tharoor in the Thiruvananthapuram constituency.
Notably, in the last election, the UDF nearly won a clean sweep, winning 19 of Kerala’s 20 Lok Sabha seats.
As per the poll, the Congress has an edge in the Wayanad constituency in Kerala, Congress ally Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) is likely to win the Malappuram constituency, and BJP’s Rajeev Chandrasekhar holds the advantage in the Thiruvananthapuram constituency.
The most dramatic victory is anticipated in Uttar Pradesh, where the BJP is expected to win 74 seats, with alliance partners Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) and Apna Dal winning two each out of a total of 80 seats, leaving two for Akhilesh Yadav’s Samajwadi Party (SP). The Congress and Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) may end up empty-handed in Uttar Pradesh.
Other states where the BJP is expected to win big are Bihar (17 out of 40), Jharkhand (12 out of 14), Karnataka (22 out of 28), Maharashtra (25 out of 48), Odisha (10 out of 21), Assam (10 out of 14), and West Bengal (20 out of 42).
In the South Indian states, apart from Kerala and Karnataka, the party is expected to win four seats in Tamil Nadu and five seats in Telangana.
The opinion poll was conducted in all 543 constituencies from 5th February to 23rd February, with a total of 1,62,900 respondents. These include 84,350 males and 78,550 females.
