Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s “Abki baar, 400 paar” is likely to come to fruition according to different opinion polls and surveys conducted by various news channels. Now, News18 mega opinion poll is also indicating the same thing. According to the poll, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by the Bharatiya Janata Party, is expected to secure a historic third consecutive term at the centre and meet Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s “400 paar” objective for the forthcoming Lok Sabha elections.
The largest opinion poll in India projects that the party will secure a record-breaking 350 seats, giving the NDA a 411 seat majority in the 543-member Lok Sabha. Sixty-one seats will be captured by the remaining NDA members including Telugu Desam Party and Janata Dal (United).
With 77 seats in Uttar Pradesh, 28 seats in Madhya Pradesh, 10 seats in Chhattisgarh, 38 seats in Bihar and 12 seats in Jharkhand, the poll predicts that the BJP-led NDA will take over the Hindi heartland along with 25 constituencies in Karnataka. Furthermore, there will probably be a significant increase in the number in other regions including Andhra Pradesh where the tally will climb to 18 seats, 25 seats in West Bengal, 13 seats in Odisha and 8 seats in Telangana.
Gujarat, the home state of PM Modi, is also projected to be retained by the ruling alliance with all 26 seats. Additionally, the NDA is predicted to pull a surprise or two in Kerala with 2 seats and Tamil Nadu with 5 seats, the two states where the party is working relentlessly to establish itself.
The I.N.D.I. Alliance of opposition parties consisting of Congress, Samajwadi Party, Rashtriya Janata Dal and Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) among others are poised to gain 105 seats in the lower house. After its unprecedented low of 44 in 2014, the Congress might only receive 49 seats which would be its second-worst performance in Lok Sabha polls.
The findings indicate that other parties not in the opposition’s coalition or the NDA, like the YSRCP, BSP, BRS, BJD, AIADMK, and others could get about 27 seats in total. According to the opinion poll, the NDA will obtain almost half of all votes cast.
Breakdown of state-wise results
Uttar Pradesh: According to opinion poll forecasts, the BJP-led NDA is expected to win a record 77 out of 80 seats in the most important political state while the Mayawati-led BSP, which is running alone, is predicted to win just one seat, while the I.N.D.I. Alliance would only manage two seats. This will be the BJP’s best-ever showing in UP if the forecasts come to pass. A record 71 seats were won by the BJP in Uttar Pradesh in 2014 and 62 seats in the 2019 general election.
Bihar: It is anticipated that the BJP-JD(U) coalition will win 38 of the 40 seats in Bihar, while the opposition bloc will only gain 2 seats. The prediction is similar to the 2019 outcomes, in which the NDA secured 39 of the state’s 40 seats.
Maharashtra: The BJP-Shiv Sena-NCP ruling coalition in Maharashtra is likely to win another election, according to the opinion survey. The poll predicts that the NDA will win 41 of the 48 seats in the state, while the opposition alliance will only gain 7 seats.
West Bengal: Predictions indicate that the TMC is projected to win 17 of the 42 seats in the state, while the BJP is expected to win 25. It stated that the Congress is probably going to draw a blank. It’s interesting to note that 42% of the vote is what both the BJP and the TMC are predicted to secure in terms of vote share. Of the 42 seats in 2019, 22 were won by the party led by Mamata Banerjee. The BJP gained 18 seats in 2019 as opposed to just 2 in 2014.
Tamil Nadu: The DMK-Congress coalition is anticipated by the opinion poll to win 30 out of 39 seats in the southern state, which would be a modest decrease from its result in 2019. The opinion survey noted that the BJP, which has yet to form an alliance in the state, is anticipated to win five seats for the first time.
Madhya Pradesh: The opinion poll projects that the BJP will replicate its 2019 performance in the Hindi heartland state, taking 28 of the 29 seats and in contrast, only one seat is predicted for Congress. The BJP won every seat in the state in 2019 except for one, as the Congress managed to hang onto Chhindwara, former Chief Minister Kamal Nath’s stronghold, which is presently held by his son Nakul Nath.
Karnataka: The opinion survey indicates that the NDA would win 25 of the 28 seats in the crucial southern state, matching its tally from 2019. The Congress is predicted to receive just three. This time, the BJP is running for office in coalition with the JD(S).
Kerala: The opinion poll predicts the Congress-led UDF to win 14 of Kerala’s 20 seats, while the incumbent LDF is predicted to win just 4 and BJP is set to win 2 seats. According to the opinion poll, LDF would receive little more than 32% of the vote, while the opposition bloc was predicted to receive 47% of the vote.
Punjab: The BJP-led NDA is predicted to win three seats in the state, while the Congress, which was overthrown in 2022, is predicted to gain seven. According to the opinion poll, the AAP, which won the state election with a resounding victory, is predicted to win just one seat if its 2019 result is replicated.
Andhra Pradesh: The NDA alliance, led by the BJP, is predicted to win 18 of the 25 seats in Andhra Pradesh. It stated that the YSR Congress, led by Jagan Reddy and which secured a historic mandate in 2019, would secure a mere 7 seats in 2024. For the Lok Sabha elections, the BJP, TDP, and Pawan Kalyan’s Jana Sena have forged an alliance.
Telangana: According to the opinion survey, the BJP is expected to secure eight out of seventeen seats in Telangana. The poll projects that the ruling Congress will win six seats in the state, while BRS will only have two. The K Chandrashekar Rao-led TRS secured nine of Telangana’s seventeen seats in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, while the BJP only managed to secure four.
Rajasthan: The opinion survey indicates that the BJP-led NDA is on course to win all 25 seats in Rajasthan, the Hindi heartland state, in yet another landslide. According to the opinion poll, the Congress, which was defeated in the assembly elections last year, would once more draw a blank. It predicted that 61% of the state’s votes would be won by the BJP and its allies. The NDA, led by the Bharatiya Janata Party, had won all 25 seats in the state in the previous general election. It received an astounding 59% of the vote.
Odhisha: The opinion poll predicts that the ruling BJD will win eight seats in Odisha, while the BJP will win thirteen. If the forecasts come to pass, the BJP, which has been gaining ground in the state, will receive a major boost. In the 2019 elections, Odisha witnessed a fierce contest between the BJD, led by Naveen Patnaik, and the BJP. The state’s 20 seats were won by the ruling BJD, while the BJP increased its share of seats from 1 in 2014 to 8 in 2019.
Jharkhand: The opinion poll indicates that the BJP-led NDA would win 12 of the state’s 14 seats, matching its performance from 2019. Congress and JMM will share the remaining two. The BJP-led NDA won 12 of the state’s 14 seats in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, while the Congress and JMM each got one seat. The BJP secured 11 seats out of the NDA’s share, while its ally AJSU secured one.
Chhattisgarh: According to the opinion poll, the BJP would gain 10 seats in Chhattisgarh in 2024 compared to its current total of 9. The BJP had a strong showing in the Hindi heartland state in the 2019 elections, taking nine of the eleven seats. The other two were won by the Congress.
Assam: The opinion poll predicts that the BJP would win every seat in Assam. It forecasted the saffron party to win 12 of the 14 seats, while Congress will receive none. The opinion poll predicted that regional parties AIUDF and BPF will win the final two seats. In the previous general election, the northeastern state saw the BJP win nine of the fourteen seats, while the Congress only managed to secure three. There was only one victory for the AIUDF under Badruddin Ajmal.
Uttarakhand: Pre-election opinion poll indicate that the BJP will win all five seats in Uttarakhand, continuing its unbeaten streak from 2019. It predicted that the saffron party would garner a staggering 62% of the vote, surpassing its results from 2019. The BJP secured all five seats in the mountainous state in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. Its vote share was almost twice as high at 61%.
Gujarat: The opinion poll predicts that the BJP will win 26 of the 26 seats in Gujarat, making it another perfect sweep. In both 2014 and 2019, the saffron party won all 26 seats, leaving the Congress with nothing. Additionally, the BJP received an astounding 62.2% of the vote, almost twice as many as the Congress’s 32%.
Delhi, Haryana and Himachal Pradesh: The poll indicates that the BJP would secure all 10 seats in Haryana, 7 seats in Delhi, and 4 seats in Himachal Pradesh. Notably, the BJP had won all three of the northern states in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections as well.
