The Bhartiya Janata Party, which is targeting a resounding victory in the next Lok Sabha elections, has been striving to expand the National Democratic Alliance. alongside a goal of winning 370 seats on its own and “Abki Baar 400 Paar” alongside allies, the party aims to team up with like-minded regional political powers.
In the wake of BJP and several regional parties exploring a potential alliance, Telugu Desam Party President N Chandrababu Naidu and Jana Sena Party chief Pawan Kalyan met with Union Home Minister Amit Shah and BJP Chief JP Nadda in Delhi. The meeting took place on Thursday (7th March).
There are speculations that the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) is likely to join the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) for the upcoming Lok Sabha and Assembly elections in Andhra Pradesh. The TDP which was part of the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance till 2018, evinced interest in reviving the alliance after suffering a crushing defeat in the 2019 elections. There has been talk of a triparty alliance between the regional parties and BJP for some time.
TDP president N Chandrababu Naidu met Union Home Minister Amit Shah on March 7, and held talks over the possibility of an alliance for the Lok Sabha and Assembly polls, which will be held simultaneously in Andhra Pradesh.
— TIMES NOW (@TimesNow) March 8, 2024
BJP wants to contest on 5 Lok Sabha seats and 10-12… pic.twitter.com/Zvg9S7y8Rj
Reports say that the meeting focused mostly on the potential alliance and the complexities of seat distribution. Although both parties profess openness to an alliance, the final decision depends on settling disagreements over the seats each party will contest.
Actor Pawan Kalyan-led Jana Sena Party, which has been a member of the NDA, has already joined hands with the TDP. The state has 25 Lok Sabha and 175 Assembly seats.
Elections for Lok Sabha are expected to be held in April-May. The ruling party is eyeing a third term under Prime Minister Narendra Modi and has set a target for winning 370 seats on its own and 400 with allies.
Strong buzz of BJD-BJP alliance ahead of Odisha assembly and Lok Sabha polls
Other than the southern states, speculations are rife about a possible alliance between the BJP and the Biju Janata Dal (BJD) in Odisha. 5T chairperson VK Pandian and BJD organisational secretary Pranab Prakash Das headed for New Delhi to meet with the BJP. Their journey to Delhi has increased the prospect of clandestine negotiations between the two parties. They are likely to continue talks about alliances and seat-sharing ratios with the BJP’s top leadership.
As suspense continues to prevail over seat sharing between BJD & BJP before formal announcement of alliance, Odisha BJP leaders camping at Delhi asked not to leave the national capital. BJD leaders VK Pandian & Pranab Prakash Das fly to Delhi to seal the deal.@NewIndianXpress pic.twitter.com/TXFOLKcsUJ
— TNIE Odisha (@XpressOdisha) March 7, 2024
VK Pandian is said to have played a crucial role in convincing his party members that forming an alliance with the BJP would be advantageous to his party, as per reports.
According to reports, the BJP intends to contest 13 Lok Sabha seats in Odisha, while the BJD is expected to contest 8 LS seats. It is being said that a 13-8 or 14-7 seat-sharing ratio is being looked into. Although there are no specifics on the Assembly seat-sharing formula as of yet, the BJD-BJP alliance is nearly confirmed.
It is notable here that the BJD enjoys an overwhelming majority in the Odisha assembly currently and is expected to remain in power in the state for the foreseeable future. The Odisha unit of BJP is not so strong and lacks strong regional leaders currently who can ensure a significant seat share in the assembly.
How an alliance will benefit BJP and BJD both in Odisha
However, in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections and simultaneous assembly elections, the people of Odisha displayed that they are willing to choose different parties to rule them in the state and center. While Naveen Patnaik’s BJD won a brute majority in assembly polls, leaving BJP far behind, BJP secured 8 Lok Sabha seats out of 21, winning significantly in Western Odisha.
Hence, the speculation is rife that since the BJP’s Odisha unit doesn’t have much chance to win significantly in the assembly polls, the two old NDA allies might officially end their separation and choose to “save energy and resources” by not challenging each other.
Also, at the national level, Naveen Patnaik’s BJD, despite having the BJP as a rival in the state, has been very supportive of the Modi government, often earning praise from senior BJP leaders, even the PM himself for putting the welfare of the state ahead of petty political rivalry.
BJD had extended support to the Modi government on almost all major parliamentary bills, and in the Presidential elections too. CM Patnaik had personally appealed to all MLAs and MPs of Odisha to vote for President Murmu and had sent state cabinet ministers Tukuni Sahu and Jagannath Saraka to endorse the President’s nomination papers.
As directed by BJD chief & Odisha CM Naveen Patnaik, 2 ministers of Odisha cabinet, Jagannath Saraka and Tukuni Sahu signed the nomination papers of NDA's Presidential candidate Droupadi Murmu today in Delhi. They'll also be present with her at the timing of filing of nomination. pic.twitter.com/JrQQJGS8ks
— ANI (@ANI) June 23, 2022
Amid all this, it would appear that a pre-election alliance may be beneficial for both the BJP and BJD as they join their resources to win their respective winnable seats and avoid confrontation at the state level.
Moreover, Naveen Patnaik has no national political ambitions and he has so far avoided all attempts by other Opposition parties to join an anti-BJP front.
Moving to Punjab, it was reported last month that discussions are on between the BJP and Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) over the latter returning to the NDA fold. Speaking at a programme last month, Union Minister and BJP’s in-house “Chanakya” was asked about SAD’s possible return to NDA. On this Shah said, “Talks are going on but nothing has been finalised.”
It is worth noting that in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP and Akali Dal contested jointly and won four of the thirteen seats. The BJP competed three and won two, whereas the Akali Dal contested ten but only won two.
NDA expanding, I.N.D.I.A shrinking
Interestingly, the BJP has for the last few months been in an NDA expansion mode with its efforts so far yielding positive results. Recently, Rashtriya Lok Dal chief Jayant Chaudhary announced the decision to join the alliance with the BJP in Uttar Pradesh for the upcoming general elections. This came after the Modi government announced that the former prime minister Chaudhary Charan Singh would be conferred Bharat Ratna.
“How can I refuse now”, Chaudhary said adding that PM Modi’s government did what no other party could. RLD joining hands with the BJP might turn out to be fruitful for both parties since RLD enjoys a significant influence in Western Uttar Pradesh among the Jat community.
Jayant Chaudhary’s joining the NDA has been a major setback for the I.N.D.I. Alliance, as it was reported that Akhilesh Yadav, had talked about letting RLD contest 7 seats.
RLD and Samajwadi Party formed an alliance for the 2019 general elections. However, RLD lost all three seats it fought, while SP gained only five. While the BJP achieved a landslide victory in the 2022 Uttar Pradesh assembly elections, the Samajwadi Party won 111 of the 347 seats it contested and the RLD won 9 of the 33 seats it ran for.
After ditching the BJP to form ‘mahagathbandhan’ with RJD in 2022 amidst high-voltage political drama, Nitish Kumar, the Chief Minister of Bihar and Janta Dal (United) supremo announced his return to NDA in January this year. On 28th January, Nitish Kumar took oath as Bihar CM for the ninth time. JDU leader not only returned to NDA but also asserted that his alliance with NDA will remain forever adding that now there is no question of going anywhere else.
Interestingly, just few months back, Nitish Kumar was being projected as I.N.D.I. Alliance’s prime ministerial face. The leader was also actively working to bring the opposition parties under the umbrella of the I.N.D.I. bloc, however, he ended up snapping ties with staunch anti-Modi party RJD and I.N.D.I. Alliance.
The BJP-led NDA had added another party to its fold as Janata Dal (Secular) joined the alliance in Karnataka in September last year. The former Congress ally joined NDA after Prime Minister and JD(S) patriarch HD Deve Gowda and his son Kumaraswamy met BJP President JP Nadda and Amit Shah in the Parliament.
While the BJP has not only managed to deflect INDI Alliance parties like the JDU and RLD, and is likely to forge an alliance with the BJD in Odisha and TDP-JSP in Andhra Pradesh, the Congress-led I.N.D.I. Alliance suffering jolts after jolts. Interestingly, even the most hardcore anti-Modi parties are deserting the “sinking ship”.
Recently, the Communist Party of India (CPI) said that it has decided to contest elections on its own from Assam. The CPI would reportedly fight elections on 3 seats from the northeastern state.
Earlier, the Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress indicated that it would contest elections separately in West Bengal, ruling out any possibility of an alliance with the grand old party.
Interestingly, in February this year, Congress leader Jairam Ramesh asserted that two parties (JDU and RLD) leaving the I.N.D.I. bloc will not have any impact, however, with parties like TMC announcing to go solo in the coming elections, Congress and the opposition bloc is left helpless and frustrated. This frustration is evident in its leaders like Rahul Gandhi and RJD supremo Lalu Yadav resorting to personal attacks like ‘fake OBC’ and ‘Parivar’ jibes on Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
While polls predict an easy third term win for the BJP-led NDA, the alliance’s expansion underlines the NDA’s strong position, bringing it closer to PM Modi’s ‘Abki Baar 400 Paar’ ambition. Meanwhile, given the pace at which the I.N.D.I. alliance is disintegrating, it will not be surprising that the coalition will disband entirely before the elections.
