The voting for the Lok Sabha election is scheduled to begin on 19th April and the result will be pronounced on 4th June. Meanwhile, multiple surveys have been carried out to gauge the potential direction of public sentiment at the moment. As with all such surveys, the Lokniti-Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) also forecasted a resounding majority for the Bharatiya Janta Party in its study intended to assess the mood of the country.
The BJP is projected to have a commanding 12% point lead over the opposition I.N.D.I. Alliance with almost three weeks to go before voting even started. Out of ten voters, 4 declared they will cast their ballots for the BJP. In terms of vote share, the BJP is also improving over its 2019 result. It is anticipated that Congress would also make small progress, but not sufficient to challenge the current administration. The BJP emerged as a dominant force and even increased its vote share after two terms in power.
The survey noted that Prime Minister Narendra Modi was selected by over half of the participants as their top candidate for the position while less than three out of ten responders brought up the name of Rahul Gandhi. There were twenty-one points separating the two national leaders. According to one-fourth of the respondents, the construction of the Ram Mandir in Ayodhya is the Modi government’s most admired achievement. Thirty per cent of National Democratic Alliance (NDA) supporters liked him because he built the Ram Mandir, ten per cent because he offered job possibilities and another ten per cent because he boosted India’s standing globally. It also pointed towards the “consolation of Hindus.”
The main factor for the BJP’s triumph in 2014 was its outstanding performance in the north and west of the country. In 2019, the BJP achieved significant gains in many eastern regions, particularly West Bengal and Assam while maintaining and even slightly exceeding its previous performance. The majority of the south was excluded from this, with the exception of Karnataka, where the party did well in 2019.
However, the national party is expected to pick up ground in the southern stronghold owing to the bipolarity that has plateaued in Kerala, the Bharat Rashtra Samithi’s defeat in Telangana’s most recent assembly elections and the BJP’s partnership with the Telugu Desam Party in Andhra Pradesh. According to the pre-poll, the regional gap might still exist, albeit less strongly. The NDA appeared to have substantial support in the north and west.
The Northeast and East showed strong support for the opposition bloc as well. The problem it faces is in the south, where support for the opposition and the NDA appeared to be evenly divided. The intended vote in favour of the BJP was rising in both the south and the east which is likely to reduce regional political variation. The BJP would significantly benefit from this.
However, alongside region, the nature of the electoral contest may also shape the possible configuration of the choices of the voters. When the BJP and Congress engaged in direct combat, the former appeared to be in the lead which fell to half in contests between the NDA and the I.N.D.I. Alliance. Support for each side seems to be divided into three parts in multi-cornered support.
In comparison to Rahul Gandhi’s assurances, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s “Modi Ki Guarantee” has grown in popularity with people. More than 50% of the participants conveyed contentment with the BJP’s governance over the past ten years, reflecting a positive outlook for extending the Modi administration’s tenure. All of this indicates that the BJP does not have a strong and credible opponent.
