Icchadhari protestor-turned-politician-turned-protestor Yogendra Yadav has been on an interview spree in the role of an alleged psephologist again. Yadav recently bettered his brilliance in intellectual dishonesty while narrating his wishful thinking and seat predictions for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the ongoing general elections. The expelled AAP leader, now an aide of Congress leader Rahul Gandhi, Yadav recently opined that even if the BJP reaches the coveted halfway mark of 272 on its own and forms a majority government for the third straight time, it would actually be a loss of the saffron party.
Notably, as part of his agenda-setting drive regarding diminishing seats for the BJP-led NDA, Yogendra Yadav shared his ever-changing ‘Final numbers’ in an interview with the leftist outlet, The Red Mike. For those unversed, it is akin to the Chinese Final warning which was always the last and continued indefinitely without any real consequence. Likewise, Yadav, who has been ‘predicting’ a BJP loss for almost a decade now, with a heavy heart, displayed more generosity for the BJP in his final numbers. He stated that the saffron party could get somewhere around 248-260 seats. This gradual shift of 10-15 seats by his own admission, has been a constant in his ‘Mungeri Lal ke Haseen Sapne’ for several weeks now.
However, when the host Sanket Upadhyay asked him if the BJP secures 270 seats, would it not be a victory for the saffron party as it would be enough to form a government (a clear majority for a single party), and whether the opposition got played by PM Modi’s narrative slogan of ‘Abki baar 400 par’. To which Yadav replied, “Mein nhi manta…BJP ko agar 270 seats milte hai to wo BJP ki jeet hai.” (Translation – I don’t consider that BJP getting 270 seats will be a victory of the saffron party.)
One needs 272 seats in LS to form govt.
— Incognito (@Incognito_qfs) May 28, 2024
Yogendra Yadav: If BJP gets 270 seats, it won't be victory of BJP.
Whose victory is it going to be then? @_YogendraYadav
Can Congess form govt with 50 seats?? pic.twitter.com/6L7mDwr2oy
It is pertinent to note that Yogendra Yadav, however, didn’t reject the submission of BJP’s tally going up by 10 more seats, as per his final numbers. While he painted 270 as a loss for the BJP, he inadvertently pegged the BJP’s tally around 270 seats, in his prediction.
Nonetheless, Yogendra Yadav further claimed that slowly the narrative around BJP’s seats has come down from their initial target of ‘370 for BJP and NDA 400 paar’ to BJP as well as NDA missing the 272 mark. According to him, the projected seats for BJP have come down from 370 to less than 250 among the political circles and the public.
However, Yogendra Yadav, who wears multiple hats and claims to know everything under the sun, didn’t elaborate on any specific reasons for the massive reduction of BJP’s seats by around 60-80. Click here, to read the breakdown of his lump-sum reduction of BJP’s seats. He didn’t clarify whether the ‘social engineering’ on the ground has changed or if NDA’s committed ideological voters have shifted towards I.N.D.I. alliance parties, or if the public has developed a sudden liking for the alliance leaders. Nonetheless, he justified the preconceived seat prediction by backtracking and stating that BJP’s seats will have to come down as it can’t go up where it has already reached saturation. For Yadav, it is simple when something can’t go up, it is a sure short guarantee that it has to come down. Does the logic really hold ground? Trust Yoya bro!
This benign argument has failed multiple times in the past, including in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. The outdated notion and foregone conclusion of a reduction in mandate for an incumbent government due to anti-incumbency have fallen flat, as several BJP-ruled and other party-led governments have received better mandates in their subsequent elections, forcing poll pundits to seriously consider pro-incumbency as a factor or possibility.
Don’t count NDA, so BJP getting 250-270, etc is a loss for the saffron party: Yogendra Yadav
Further in the interview, Yogendra Yadav also claimed that Prashant Kishore and the media led a misleading campaign in his name.
देश में चुनाव और सामाजिक राजनीतिक विषयों की समझ रखने वालों में एक विश्वसनीय चेहरा @_YogendraYadav जी ने 2024 Lok Sabha elections का अपना “फ़ाइनल आकलन” साझा किया है।
— Prashant Kishor (@PrashantKishor) May 24, 2024
योगेन्द्र जी के मुताबिक इन चुनावों में बीजेपी को 240-260 और एनडीए की साथी दलों को 35-45 सीटें मिल सकती हैं। मतलब… pic.twitter.com/B1E3NaBEKa
According to him, misleading claims were peddled which stated that even Yogendra Yadav has accepted that BJP-led NDA will comfortably cross the majority mark. While he said it was wrong for Prashant Kishore to attribute words to him, he used Kishore’s logic to defend himself from the barrage of abuses he started getting from I.N.D.I. alliance supporters. He said that after it was reported that Yadav predicted NDA’s victory, a lot of supporters of the Congress party and I.N.D.I. alliance called him, ‘Aasteen ka saanp’ (A treacherous person) among other things.
The Congress man-Friday argued that he has not given up on his castle of imagination and continues to bat for the opposition bloc in the guise of a veteran political analyst and psephologist doing the interviews. According to Yadav, the discussion about seat predictions should happen only for the BJP, in a vacuum for the current formation or future shape of the NDA. In a bid to cover up his intellectual dishonesty, Yadav invoked Prashant Kishore’s argument that the true shape of NDA will be decided after the election results are announced. Notably, there have been conspiracy theories about the NCP factions, the entry or exit of some players from the NDA, which include a future course of action by Sharad Pawar, and the possible alliance of BJD with its former NDA partners.
However, in an intellectually dishonest argument, Yogendra Yadav extended Kishore’s logic to project the BJP as a politically untouchable party, saying, “Who knows, TDP may exit the NDA post-elections”. According to him, NDA partners should not be counted in discussions over seat predictions and the formation of the next government. Hence, the Left activist proved himself right in stating that BJP’s victory – registering seats close to the halfway mark or crossing it – would be a loss for the BJP. Extending Yogendra Yadav’s logic, the BJP-led NDA is evidently failing to comfortably secure a majority, and its projected numbers are dwindling. Why? Because, conveniently, one cannot incorporate the NDA’s figures when arguing with the disgraced entity who chooses his domain of expertise/career as per the want of the day.
While doing mental gymnastics and proving that at least BJP is losing in his figment of imagination, he buttered his bizarre argument by shunning logic, and political reality and not admitting to his own words. His arguments epitomise the old adage, “Chit bhi meri pat bhi meri, Sikka mere Baap ka…” (Translation – If it’s heads, I win; if it’s tails, you lose).
Yadav who claims to have expertise in all fields, fails to grasp that even in the naysayers’ worst seat predictions, the opposition and its lackeys have already conceded victory for the NDA, whether they predict 240 or 270 for BJP. He fails to see that out of two competing narratives, one has failed to nudge below 400 for the NDA, other one too has predicted a comfortable and third majority government for the NDA. It is not the BJP’s narrative that has budged from 400 to 272, rather opposition has been admitting with a heavy heart, that in all likelihood BJP-led NDA will form the next government.
