Amidst the Lok Sabha elections, the Icchadhari protestor-turned-psephologist Yogendra Yadav is back with his poll results prediction. Recently, Yogendra Yadav predicted that the Bhartiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) will not get the majority.
As things stand today, BJP is much below the majority mark. It is possible that even the NDA may not attain majority.
— Yogendra Yadav (@_YogendraYadav) May 15, 2024
My take, based on my ground travels and feedback from the field: pic.twitter.com/ffZfwMI8Ff
In a dramatic video posted to Yogendra Yadav’s YouTube channel, the Duggal Sahab of political activism said that the media is suppressing the truth that the BJP will not get the required majority in the 2024 general elections. “BJP is way below 272 seat mark and along with BJP, NDA too can get seats below a majority. In the 2019 elections, the BJP got 303 seats and with NDA overall got 353. In Karnataka, the BJP is at the loss of 10 seats, and in Maharashtra will lose at least 20 seats. In Rajasthan and Gujarat, they will lose around 10 seats. In Haryana and Punjab, Chandigarh, Himachal Pradesh and Delhi BJP-NDA will lose 10 seats,” Yadav said.
“In Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand, and Chhattisgarh, not much but at least a loss of 10 seats will happen to BJP-NDA. In Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand BJP will lose at least 15 seats. And in Bihar also it will lose 15 seats out of 39 it won in 2019. So far, this was the estimate of 90 seats…” Yadav added.
He went on to claim that BJP-NDA will lose around 10 seats in northeast region alongside West Bengal, and some Union Territories. “So far, we saw that NDA will suffer a loss of around 100 seats out of which 75 are BJP seats. But BJP can garner some benefit as well…in Tamil Nadu, Telangana and Kerala combined, BJP can gain around 5 seats. And TDP joining NDA, there will be a direct gain of 10 seats. Total, BJP will lose 65 seats and its allies will lose 15 seats…” Yadav continued.
Furthermore, claiming that it is not an exit poll but a general math, Yadav said, “BJP will be reduced to 233 seats suffering loss of 70 seats. Along with this, allies will get 35 seats that is 268. Thus, BJP-NDA can miss the majority mark. I had said once that I did the work of predicting the future and now I do the job of making the future. Today, the media and election experts are running a propaganda that BJP-NDA is winning with a thumping majority. This creates a perception among voters that I may not vote…but Aayega toh Modi hi…” Yadav said.
Yogendra Yadav is notorious for his anti-BJP and anti-Modi opinions. The above-discussed poll results prediction by Yadav makes his bias apparent and also reminds one of the saying “Mungerilal ke haseen sapne”. The recent political war of words may have given some ‘hope’ to Yogendra Yadav who has been upset with the I.N.D.I. bloc for not posing a strong and fierce fight against the incumbent Modi government, it seems like Yadav is passing off his assumptions and wishful thinking as predictions. While the “Janadesh” will be revealed on 4th June, it appears highly unlikely that the BJP-led NDA will miss the majority mark, even as Yogendra Yadav and the anti-Modi ecosystem are working and praying for the same every moment.
Interestingly, over the years the anti-BJP ecosystem has been ‘predicting BJP-NDA’s ouster from power even before the 2019 general elections. However, for them, India’s democracy ‘dies’ every time BJP wins. The opposition parties, their media allies and the extended ‘ecosystem’ are desperately hoping for a ‘India Shining’ redux for its bête noire Narendra Modi. While Yogendra Yadav in his usual debonair is claiming that the media is hiding the truth of BJP-NDA going to miss the majority mark, he had predicted BJP’s defeat in elections in the past as well only to apologise later.
Yogendra Yadav’s 2019 prediction and how it fell flat
Back in 2018, Yadav predicted that BJP would lose at least 100 seats much like how he is claiming this time that the BJP alone will lose around 65 seats. Exposing his diminutive understanding of the public sentiment, Yadav had said that Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity is “diminishing”.
“The popularity of BJP as well as Prime Minister Narendra Modi is diminishing and you need not be a psephologist to predict it. It is quite evident,” Yadav said at that time.
In February 2019, Yogendra Yadav wrote an article in ThePrint asserting that the 2019 Lok Sabha elections would be a replica of the 2004 elections wherein BJP’s Atal Bihari Vajpayee was widely expected to comfortably win the elections but he lost the elections to the UPA coalition.
In his 2019 piece, Yadav who has a dubious record of getting his predictions consistently wrong maintained that although Modi’s popularity ratings are high, he might be in for a defeat in the 2019 General elections. In an attempt to discredit the undercurrents supporting PM Modi’s return, Yadav blathered about Type-1 and Type-2 errors made by pollsters when projecting a result.
While the psephologist highlighted the ‘errors’ pollsters make and claimed that PM Modi’s popularity was ‘diminishing’, the BJP-led NDA ended up winning 353 seats in the Lok Sabha with 303 seats to BJP alone, rising from the historic 2014 win. Later, Yogendra Yadav while expressing his frustration over his prediction falling flat blamed the voting polling pattern the voters embraced. In a serious meltdown, Yadav went overboard and said that he wanted to hold the voters by their collar and call them “idiots”.
“In my constituency of Gurugram, I had issued a very special appeal to people to ensure that the BJP is defeated at any cost. I said this Prime Minister is the biggest liar of a Prime Minister we have ever had in the history of our country. Voters didn’t listen to me one bit. I’m sad, I’m angry and I’m dejected. I want to hold them by their collars and say, you idiots,” Yadav lamented. However, he balanced it out saying that his reaction was “fundamentally flawed”.
When psephologist cum professional agitator’s prediction was proved wrong in the 2017 Gujarat assembly elections
Ahead of the 2017 Gujarat assembly elections, Yogendra had predicted that the BJP is headed for a defeat in its stronghold saying that there was a sharp swing against the ruling BJP. Much like this time, Yadav had back then also alleged that the pollsters were not revealing the evidence suggesting BJP’s rout. He predicted that the Congress party would get 113 seats. However, contrary to Yadav’s prediction and desideratum, BJP won 99 seats and Congress secured 77 seats out of 182.
Yadav who usually maintains a “know it all” sort of persona had to apologise for passing off his predilections under the garb of psephology. “I am sorry, my pre-poll projection was off: abt 3% deviation even from scenario1. Mine wasn’t wishful thinking, certainly not propaganda. I relied upon objective data, ground reports & opinion polls. Yet I was wrong. Would be silly to blame EVM. Need to accept error & learn,” Yadav said.
I am sorry, my pre-poll projection was off: abt 3% deviation even from scenario1. Mine wasn't wishful thinking, certainly not propaganda. I relied upon objective data, ground reports & opinion polls. Yet I was wrong.
— Yogendra Yadav (@_YogendraYadav) December 18, 2017
Would be silly to blame EVM. Need to accept error & learn. https://t.co/qAIxWg8Jaz
Yogendra Yadav like any average Modi hater finds joie de vivre in anticipating the dethronement of Narendra Modi even if that means BJP-NDA falling short of the majority if not a crushing defeat by Congress and allies.
Interestingly, Yogendra Yadav had contested the 2014 Lok Sabha election from Gurgaon on Aam Admi Party (AAP) ticket only to lose his security deposit and a year later get kicked out of AAP. After a failed career in politics, Yogendra Yadav returned to psephology only to face embarrassments one after the other.
Be it anti-CAA protests, farmers protest or joining the Congress leader Rahul Gandhi’s controversial foot march Bharat Jodo Yatra among other activities, Yogendra Yadav has been diligently trying to spread anti-Modi and anti-BJP propaganda in his pursuit to oust Narendra Modi from the helm of power. However, as his efforts so far have tasted nothing but defeat and trend is likely to continue, Yadav appears have decided to hide the discomfiture with his self proclaimed ‘psephology’ as a coping mechanism.
