The results of the Lok Sabha elections in 2024 are now known to everyone. The country has voted the NDA coalition administration back to power, and the BJP has emerged as the most powerful party. The BJP has won 240 seats in these elections though it could not achieve a majority on its own. The BJP’s vote share, from 37.3% to 36.6% has decreased by only 0.6%, but its seat count has been impacted as a consequence.
As the elections progressed, the BJP suffered losses
In the Lok Sabha elections, a trend was observed in which the BJP lost ground in most of the final phases. Bihar and Uttar Pradesh propose good instances of this. The BJP suffered its greatest loss in Uttar Pradesh. It won 33 seats, the SP won 37, and the Congress won 6 in the state. As the elections progressed, the victory margin between BJP and SP also increased in Uttar Pradesh.
If seen according to the phases of voting, in the first phase of elections, BJP has won 3 out of 8 seats in Uttar Pradesh, while in the second phase, BJP has won all 8 seats. In the first phase, the BJP lagged behind only on Muslim-dominated seats. It suffered losses in the third phase. BJP lost 6 out of 10 seats in the third phase, these seats were taken by SP. In the fourth phase, BJP won 8 out of 13 seats. Here also, SP could win only on the seats of the Yadav family.
Further, the BJP suffered the greatest loss in the fifth and sixth stages. In the fifth phase, the SP-Congress combination won 10 out of 14 seats. In the sixth phase, the SP-Congress coalition won 11 of 14 seats. In the seventh phase, SP won 6 of the 13 seats. In such a setting, the BJP’s performance in Uttar Pradesh was satisfactory until the fourth phase, after which it suffered a significant setback. The SP-Congress coalition gained more than 60% of its seats in the fifth, sixth, and seventh phases.
Similarities observed in Bihar
In Bihar, the NDA suffered a significant loss in the last phase. The NDA alliance has won 30 out of 40 seats in Bihar. The opposition INDI alliance won 9 of the remaining 10 seats. In Bihar, elections were held in the seventh phase for eight seats, with the opposition winning 6.
In the last phase, RJD won Patliputra, Buxar, and Jehanabad. In the final round, Congress won Sasaram, while the Communist Party won the seat. Of the remaining 3 seats won by the INDI alliance, 2 were in Muslim-dominated districts, and one was won in the first phase itself. Even the INDI alliance did not benefit in the third, fourth, or fifth stages.
BJP lost momentum in the later phases
This story of good performance in the beginning phases and poor performance in the final phases appears to be repeated in the case of the BJP not only in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar but across the country. Across the country, the BJP won 76 of 189 seats in the first and second phases. The BJP benefited the most in the country during the third and fourth phases. In the third and fourth phases, elections were held for 190 seats in the country, with the BJP winning 96 of them.
The BJP began to suffer massive losses in the fifth and sixth phases. Elections were held in the fifth and sixth phases for 107 seats across the country, with the BJP winning 50 of them. Even in the last phase, the BJP did not perform well. In the last phase of voting on 57 seats, the BJP won only 17 seats. In such a situation, BJP suffered nationwide losses in the last three phases.
What were the factors?
There are numerous theories as to why the BJP sustained an electoral deficit when transitioning from the first to the last phase. One theory is that during the initial phases, the heat in the country dropped and voters came out, benefiting the BJP. In the latter phases, the heat in the country intensified, and voters began to stay away from voting, resulting in losses for the BJP. Aside from that, there is conjecture that the BJP received input in the first phase and adjusted its election campaign, which proved useful in the third and fourth phases.
This improvement momentum was not sustained in the following phases, resulting in losses. The direction of the election campaign, as well as shifting concerns at each round, are seen to be contributing factors. However, all of these are simply hypotheses, and the facts supporting them have yet to be validated, so it is impossible to say why the BJP gained an advantage in the early phases and benefitted less subsequently.
