On Saturday, 1st June, pollsters and news channels joined hands to publish much-anticipated exit polls for the Lok Sabha Elections 2024, after voting concluded for the same. The exit polls show that there is a significant shift in the Indian political landscape with Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity touching new heights.
Contrary to the opposition’s propaganda campaign that the South of India is anti-BJP, the exit polls predict BJP doing remarkably well in southern states, and likely to emerge as the single largest party in those states combined. Further, as per the exit polls, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is expected to not only maintain its ground but expand its influence in several states dispelling the opposition’s claims of anti-incumbency.
PM Modi’s growing popularity across India
PM Modi has enjoyed continuous widespread support across the nation. If we look at the past five years, despite some major events like Covid, Russia-Ukraine war, and Israel-Hamas war, which affected the world at large, it seems inevitable that the BJP-led NDA will form the government once again. PM Modi’s leadership, policies, and vision for the country resonated with a large portion of the population adding crores of new voters to the party.
Exit poll data for Lok Sabha elections 2024
According to the average of all exit polls, the NDA is expected to secure 373 seats in the Lok Sabha Elections 2024, which significantly surpasses the required 272 mark for a majority. The BJP alone is projected to get more seats compared to the 2019 elections where the party secured 303 seats. In case exit polls turn into real numbers, it will ensure PM Modi takes oath as the Prime Minister for the third time. The I.N.D.I. Alliance, on the other hand, is predicted to win around 150 seats.
Detailed Exit Poll predictions from various sources
ABP – C-Voter: NDA 368, INDI 167, Others 8
India News – D-Dynamics: NDA 371, INDI 125, Others 47
India Today – My Axis: NDA 381, INDI 148, Others 14
India TV – CNX: NDA 386, INDI 124, Others 33
Jan Ki Baat: NDA 377, INDI 151, Others 15
News 24 – Today’s Chanakya: NDA 400, INDI 107, Others 36
News Nation: NDA 360, INDI 161, Others 22
Republic TV – Matrize: NDA 360, INDI 125, Others 45
Republic TV – P-MARQ: NDA 359, INDI 154, Others 30
Sudarshan – Prabodhan: NDA 380, INDI 98, Others 65
TV9 – Polstrat – Peoples Insight: NDA 359, INDI 154, Others 30
If we look at the state-wise projections, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Delhi, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Karnataka, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Jharkhand and Assam will play a vital role in BJP-led NDA’s victory.
The myth of anti-BJP South
For years, there has been a contention that the Southern states in the country have anti-BJP sentiment. However, recent exit polls predict a significant shift. States like Karnataka, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Kerala, and even Tamil Nadu may witness a rise in the influence of the BJP. The change in the mindset of the voters can be attributed to several factors including governance, strategic alliances and development projects even though the parties that were in power in the state were anti-BJP.
No signs of anti-incumbency
Prime Minister Narendra Modi has already been in the chair for 10 years. Generally, in a vibrant democracy like India, change is expected at the Centre. However, in the case of the 2024 elections, the typical trend of anti-incumbency where the ruling party loses support over time is missing from the political landscape of the country. It is notable, particularly in the states where BJP has been in power, that the pro-incumbency sentiments have prevailed. The electorate seems to appreciate BJP’s efforts in improving healthcare, infrastructure, foreign policy and economic stability.
BJP gaining ground in more states
Notably, BJP’s expansion is not limited to the Southern states. The party is making significant inroads in other regions as well. For example, in states like West Bengal, Odisha and the Northeast, BJP’s support has increased significantly over the years. This broadening base highlights the party’s ability to connect with diverse demographics and address their concerns effectively.
The political landscape of India changes frequently. However, BJP’s consistent work and pro-poor policies have shown how the party in power can increase its influence on the voters. BJP’s expanding influence challenges previous notions about regional strongholds and anti-incumbency. The results will be announced on 4th June and unlike the fall of BJP from power in 2004, the stars seem to favour PM Modi-led government to return to power for the third consecutive time reshaping the political map of India.
