On Saturday (1st June), polling agencies revealed their seat-sharing predictions for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections held in 543 constituencies across the country. Most exit polls have suggested a comfortable victory for the BJP in Mamata Banerjee’s bastion of West Bengal.
‘Jan Ki Baat’ of psephologist Pradeep Bhandari has predicted 21-26 seats for the BJP and a mere 16-18 seats for the ruling Trinamool Congress (TMC) in West Bengal. ‘Axis My India’ poll, conducted in association with India Today, has predicted 26-31 seats for the saffron party.
Prominent polling agencies such as Today’s Chanakya, D-Dynamics, C-Voter and Marize have given the BJP seats in the range of 21-27 out of 42 Parliamentary constituencies in West Bengal.
If the exit poll results for West Bengal stood true on 4th June 2024 (the vote counting day), then, it will be a referendum of sorts for the TMC govt.
It will also imply that the Narendra Modi-led-BJP had breached the stronghold of Mamata Banerjee and delivered its best-ever performance in the State.
Given that the voting pattern among the electorates in West Bengal is almost similar during Assembly elections and Parliamentary elections, it can pave the way for the ouster of Mamata Banerjee from the corridors of power in the 2026 Vidhan Sabha elections
Electoral history of BJP in West Bengal
For those unaware of the political development in West Bengal, the saffron party won only 1 seat (6.1% vote) in West Bengal during the 2009 Lok Sabha election.
The Modi wave of 2014 saw an increase in BJP’s vote share in the State to 17% but it could garner only 2 seats. The party came a distant fourth, behind TMC, CPIM and the Congress.
In the meantime, the BJP changed the leadership of its West Bengal unit, roped in a firebrand Dilip Ghosh, strengthened its party cadre and began positioning itself as a formidable Opposition in the State.
The meticulous planning at the organisational level and its outreach to the common masses proved to be a game-changer in the 2019 Lok Sabha election. The saffron party garnered a whopping 40.7% votes and 18 seats for the first time in West Bengal.
BJP was able to outperform both the CPIM and the Congress, the two parties that ruled West Bengal for the maximum period in the State’s electoral history. The saffron party was placed second in the 2019 election, just short of Mamata Banerjee’s TMC.
With a new change in its leadership in 2021, the BJP unit in the State was further strengthened at the grassroots level.
This is the outcome of the spectacular performance of the saffron party in West Bengal in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, as predicted by seasoned psephologists and polling agencies.
The BJP seems all set to overtake the TMC in this election and create a roadmap for the ouster of Mamata Banerjee from the power corridors in 2026.
A striking voting pattern between Vidhan Sabha and Lok Sabha elections in West Bengal
Unlike most States that tend to vote differently during the Vidhan Sabha and the Lok Sabha elections, West Bengal tends to follow a similar voting pattern.
This pattern becomes evident when we compare the results of the 2009, 2014, and 2019 Lok Sabha elections with the 2011, 2016 and 2021 Vidhan Sabha elections in the State.
The Trinamool Congress emerged as the single largest party in West Bengal during the 2009 Lok Sabha election and two years later in 2011, it formed the government in the State (following the 2011 Vidhan Sabha election).
The case was similar to the 2014 Lok Sabha election and the 2016 Vidhan Sabha election. In 2019, the BJP gave a tough competition to the TMC and emerged second in the race.
The pattern followed in the 2021 Vidhan Sabha election, where TMC emerged victorious and BJP was placed second.
Based on the voting pattern of the State and the historical data, we can see a clear pathway for the BJP in the run-up to the 2026 Vidhan Sabha election if it manages to clinch more seats than the Trinamool Congress in the 2024 Lok Sabha election.
More worries for Mamata Banerjee ahead
The Mamata Banerjee-led-West Bengal government has been under the scanner over multiple scams, which took place under its regime since 2011.
TMC leaders have previously been involved in the Rose Valley scam, the teachers’ recruitment scam, the Sharda scam, the cow-smuggling scam and a coal scam.
Its politics of violence (as witnessed post-elections), atrocities against women (as seen in Sandeshkhali), exploitation of the poor (cut money syndicate) and Muslim appeasement have pushed voters to the corner.
The BJP must seize the opportunity and put forth a campaign against TMC’s misrule and seize power back from Mamata Banerjee.
