On the 13th of July 2024, Congress secured two major victories in Uttarakhand Assembly by-polls – one from the Manglaur seat and the other, from Badrinath. The party and the media celebrated almost immediately. It was touted as a defeat for the BJP and a victory for the politics of Rahul Gandhi. The Manglaur seat, however, presents unique insights into the voting pattern of different communities, especially the Muslim community.
Manglaur city, according to the 2011 census data, is one with almost 90% Muslim population. The Assembly constituency, however, is reported to have at least over 45% Muslim electorate, coupled with an almost 20% SC electorate. According to India Today, the Manglaur Assembly Constituency has a 52,000-strong Muslim voter base, while it has a Dalit voter base of 18,000, Jat (14,000), and Gujjar (8,000).
The Manglaur seat became vacant after BSP MLA Sarwat Karim Ansari died in October last year. With a history dating back to the early 10th century, Manglaur was named after Mangal Singh of the Chauhan clan who built a fort there. Today, it is a predominantly Muslim town.
In the 2024 by-election, the victorious candidate was Congress’ Qazi Mohammad Nizamuddin with 37.91% votes. Second, was BJP’s Kartar Singh Bhadana 37.4% votes. Third was BSP candidate Obedur Rehman with 23.4% votes.
Manglaur being a Muslim-dominated constituency, the fact that Qazi Mohammad Nizammudin won is no surprise, however, a slightly deeper look into the numbers reveals interesting insights into community voting patterns.
Manglaur has never voted for a non-Muslim candidate
Since 2022, Muslim candidates – either from the Congress or the BSP have ruled the electoral politics of the constituency.
The winning Congress candidate in the 2024 by-poll was a BSP candidate in 2002. In 2002, Qazi Mohammad Nizamuddin won with an almost 40% vote share in Manglaur. In second place was a Congress Muslim candidate – Sarwat Karim Ansari – with a 27.5% vote share.
In the 2007 Assembly Elections, the results were not too different.
Qazi Mohammad Nizamuddin won as a BSP candidate with an almost 37% vote share defeating Congress’ Muslim candidate who came third with a 27% vote share. Second was an RLD candidate, Chaudhry Kulveer Singh, with a 32% vote share.
In 2012, Qazi Mohammad Nizamuddin switched from BSP to Congress and ended up coming second with a 33.07% vote share. BSP’s Ansari won with a 34.3% vote share. The difference was far more marginal than in the previous years.
In 2017, INC’s Qazi Mohammad Nizamuddin won again with a 38.58% vote share, defeating BSP’s Ansari with a 35.29% vote share.
In 2022, the sequence changed against with BSP’s Ansari winning and Congress’ Qazi Mohammad Nizamuddin coming second.
In the 2024 elections, while Congress’ Qazi Mohammad Nizamuddin won with 37.91%, something shifted massively.
In the 2024 by-elections, BJP fielded Kartar Singh Bhadana – a Hind candidate – who ended up getting a whopping 37.4% vote share – losing only marginally from Congress’ Qazi Mohammad Nizamuddin.
Essentially, Manglaur as an Assembly Constituency has always seen a Muslim candidate winning since the formation of the state of Uttarakhand in 2000 switching between Qazi Mohammad Nizamuddin and Sarwat Karim Ansari.
Victory for Congress’ Qazi Mohammad Nizamuddin, but massive strides for BJP
Historical data proves that the Muslim-dominated constituency has always ensured that a Muslim candidate wins in the Assembly polls, however, in the 2024 by-election, a massive shift was observed.
The BJP fielded a Hindu candidate Kartar Singh Bhadana, who lost to Qazi Mohammad Nizamuddin only by 422 votes.
The Muslim candidate fielded by BSP Obedur Rehman got 23.37% votes – which indicates a 13.8% fall in vote share for BSP. BJP’s vote share, on the other hand, went up by 16.04%. It would certainly seem on the face of it that the entirety of the BSP vote share shifted to BJP.
While the BSP electoral in Manglaur was voting for Muslim candidates fielded by the party, this time, it would appear that a large chunk of the Hindu electorate shifted to BJP and consolidated behind it. This electoral would include SCs, Jats, and Gujjars.
This appears to be only the second time that a Hindu candidate was able to get a substantial vote share in the Manglaur Assembly seat. The first time a Hindu candidate got a substantial vote share in the Assembly Constituency was in 2007 when RLD’s Chaudhry Kulveer Singh came second with a 32.01% vote share. The vote share of Singh was also substantially lower than the BJP candidate in 2024 – who got 37.4% vote share. In 2007, the Hindu candidate of RLD lost by 3393 votes, while in 2024, the Hindu candidate of BJP lost merely by a 422 votes margin.
This indicates a massive shift in the Manglaur Assembly Constituency where it is evident that this scale of Hindu consolidation has perhaps happened for the first time in the Assembly Constituency which has only elected Muslim candidates owing to the seat being dominated by Muslims.
BJP fielded a Muslim candidate only once in 2012 – who got only 2061 votes
Since the inception of Uttarakhand, the BJP has fielded a Muslim candidate from the Manglaur constituency only once. In the 2012 Assembly Elections, BJP fielded Kaleem as its candidate.
In the 2012 Assembly Elections, where BJP fielded a Muslim candidate, the candidate garnered only 2,061 votes. To put things in perspective, Sarwat Karim Ansari of BSP got 24,706 (and won) while Qazi Mohammad Nizamuddin from Congress came second with 24,008 votes. The Hindu candidate fielded by RLD, Gaurac Chaudhury came third with 19,354 votes.
While a Hindu candidate by RLD was in the fray, the Constituency failed to see the kind of consolidation in 2012 that it has seen in 2024, with the BJP fielding a Hindu candidate.
What does Manglaur tell us about community voting patterns?
First and foremost, from the voting pattern, it becomes imperative that we address the eternal grouse of “liberals” that Muslims don’t find adequate representation in electoral politics. Manglaur makes it more than evident that when the Muslim population of a constituency breaches the 40% mark, the winning candidate from that constituency is almost always a Muslim. This underscores the evident voting pattern of the Muslim community that they consolidate to vote for a Muslim candidate almost without exception. When the Muslim community shows that pattern of voting, as an axiomatic reality, the “liberals” and the Muslims, who often whine about representation and the fact that the Hindu majority does not necessarily vote for Muslim candidates, cannot grudge the Hindu population their choice of candidate either. If the Muslims vote as a bloc for Muslim candidates, Hindus can certainly vote as a bloc for Hindu candidates and parties that are not necessarily pandering to the Muslim veto are free to field Hindu candidates almost exclusively.
Beyond this, however, what is the fate of the Muslim candidate when a party like the BJP fields one – a demand that the “liberals” often make? In 2012, when BJP actually fielded a Muslim candidate, the candidate managed to get only 2061 votes. This only goes to show that the Muslim electorate not only wants a Muslim candidate, but the Muslim candidate should also be from a party which they believe is going to pander to them unequivocally. If a party carries even the perception of not being anti-Hindu and unequivocally pro-Muslim appeasement, their Muslim candidates are also going to lose miserably.
When this is the electoral mentality of the Muslim community, the community itself and their allies – the Left – should stop expecting the BJP to field Muslim candidates.
The pattern also holds lessons for BJP – of course. The difference in their 2012 performance and 2024 performance is clearly indicative of the fact that any kind of ‘social considerations’ from within the Hindu community reaps electoral benefits, while pandering to the Muslim community electorally is almost surely not going to bring them success. The BJP fielded a Muslim candidate in 2012 with the intention of making inroads into the Muslim dominated constituency and hoping to get a piece of the Muslim electorate pie. The result of fielding that Muslim candidate is rather apparent – it got no Muslim votes and the Hindu electoral did not trust the BJP either. It is only when they fielded a Hindu candidate did the constituency see an unprecedented consolidation of the Hindu vote in favour of BJP.
Local journalists tell us that the threat of demographic change weighs heavily on the Hindus of Manglaur and therefore, the consolidation in these by-elections favoured the BJP. Further, BJP also managed to get its caste equations right this time by fielding Kartar Singh Bhadana. Manglaur borders Uttar Pradesh and therefore, a candidate from Haryana appealed to the Hindus of Manglaur. The caste equation, coupled with the awareness among the population about the shifting demographic change, helped BJP clinch the consolidation which resulted in the party losing by only 422 seats.
It is evident from the results of Manglaur that Hindu consolidation coupled with getting community considerations right is the only electoral way ahead for the BJP – one which may be a potent answer to Muslim consolidation – as seen in Lok Sabha elections repeatedly.
