Why should the US platform dynastic sycophants and anti-Modi haters like Sayema or Akash Banerjee? Why are they throwing money to create a battalion of “fact checkers” loyal to them? They know Modi Sarkar can’t do much about it but they also know they can’t be too happy. Obviously, they don’t care.
After all, the stated goal is to build up India as a “strategic partner” and a bulwark against their much bigger rival, China. Sell billions in arms. Integrate into QUAD to run the Indian Ocean region like a good caporegime. Maybe supply soldiers when needed. Even before Biden or Trump, Obama embraced Modi, and all the past rancour was forgotten. Because they were playing for bigger stakes. Were they? What’s the deal?
I too posted after the recent episode that the Indian Ambassador to the USA must do such shows with Don Bongino or Alex Jones. That would create a media circus and the outrage will last weeks. NYT, WaPo, CNN, etc will go crazy. But achieve very little. Abhishek Baneji rightly pointed out the imbalance in capacity.
Reality check: Can Indian govt really do anything?
— Abhishek (@AbhishBanerj) July 18, 2024
Every relationship is transactional.
Yes, US Embassy invited anti-BJP influencers.
US is trying to interfere in our politics
Many want India to hit back by inviting pro-Republicans to Indian embassies … LOL
But will the…
US conservatives have nothing much to gain by associating with India or its media. Left “liberals” have an entire lifetime of comfy gigs, Harvard professorships, real or fake, frequent flyer miles, ample funds and support from woke controlled tech giants like Google to monetize their ‘influence’, push it to your timeline and cripple others like Amana Ansari or Omer Ghazi who don’t follow the script. I can’t put it any better than Banerji – if you are “BA Engliss (sic) pass with 45% in Board exams”, and have zero chance of productive employment, that’s not a bad career.
Instead of blowing our tops, we must carefully think, WHY? And of course, what can we do about it?
Going back to the question of why Ambassador Eric Garcetti doing this, let us get one fact right – it is not just now, after Modi’s return with a reduced majority. So don’t imagine ghosts. The Sayema episode happened when everyone thought Modi 3.0 with even bigger numbers was all but certain.
Furthermore, Garcetti and his experts will know very well if the Modi government were to fall today, its replacement would be a coalition of left-minded parties and a PM known to be a loyal student of Politburo “intellectuals” who surrounds himself with hardcore JNU Maoists and Marxists. Beijing will relish that prospect. Relations with India will likely get much worse for the USA – even in best-case scenarios. There may be token obedience on the Russia-Ukraine affair but that too is unlikely given the unstated consensus.
Can they be that ignorant? Are they committing strategic suicide or what? Of course not!
The simple truth is the US knows most of the malcontents they support will damage relations and create problems. The fact is, they don’t care. Because the damage they do internally is orders of magnitude higher than what they can do to the USA. And that makes a big difference.
It is here that I must expand the term US to include the West in general. Because the thinking is the same and the tactics are the same across the Anglo-Saxon, European mind at least when it comes to us unwashed.
If you remember Iran and Ayatollah Khomeini, you will recall he was able to cool his heels in Paris and return triumphantly to Iran with lots of support from the West. We all know what happened since then. Iran – West (US in particular) ties took a nosedive, it became a positive nuisance for Israel and US interests in the Middle East. US oil giants couldn’t really make too much there.
But all that fades into insignificance once you realize the damage done to Iran itself – a powerful proud nation, a cultural and scientific colossus, has been crippled – taken back centuries socially and decades economically. There is no way in hell it can be a realistic threat other than through total war that will likely obliterate it, pushing it back to the stone age. It has no capacity to attack the US mainland itself. At best it can take out a few bases here and there. All the damage likely will fall on “allies” who are, at the end of the day, cannon fodder unless they are WASPs like the UK. Look at the poor Ukrainians, NATO, and EU in their dreams, fighting Russia to the last Ukrainian while the US senators and politicians gloat that it is “cheap” to fight this way.
Do you see the maths? Now multiply Iran by 10 or 20, you see India.
There are many other examples where the US deliberately or on the face of it foolishly encourages forces that are ideologically opposite, and eventually end up biting it. It also actively encourages the fall of individuals or ideologies that could be in US interests to prosper. Woke left in the US admiring Chavez and his chela Maduro is a case in point. It went along with the Pakistan Army sponsoring and underwriting Imran Khan’s rise to power and ended up regretting it. Imran even exceeded Indira Gandhi’s conspiracy theory record, blaming everything including bad weather on CIA saazish. US siding with ISIS gangs that wanted to defeat Assad in Syria is another case. The vilification of Saudi’s MBS or el-Sisi of Egypt and support for Islamist fanatic Morsi are good examples.
The US won’t really be bothered if a bunch of left loonies, Stalinist mass butchers, Islamist fanatics and assorted dacoit dynasts friendly to Comrade Eleven create chaos and anarchy on their path to power in India. If throwing some loose change pushes that along, so be it. If you don’t believe me, check what’s going on in Bangladesh. Yes, they may be bad news for Intel, Ford, or IBM but the overall calculation is far bigger than that.
Now you may say, look, Uncle Sam doesn’t want to hurt India. It wants us to do better because we can then help them control China (or buy Boeings or whatever). Blah Blah blah…what about all that?
It is not as if that is not true but there are far bigger truths. You don’t need to be anti-US to figure that, you just need to have some common sense. Mind you, I am NOT anti-USA. Rather I am very much an admirer. But facts are facts. Politics is dirty. International politics is dirtier.
Now imagine you were the US Secretary of State or his advisor influencing foreign policy and long-term strategy. The boss wants to know if the rise of India will help or hinder. The frank answer you can give is, “we don’t know”. In fact, our entire multi-decade foreign policy consensus of “non-alignment” makes this answer inevitable. Anything else is a plain lie.
Now, do you wait for that rise to happen and then find out, holy shit, we made a big mistake? Or play a smart double game and try to head that off as much as you can? Especially if that is really a cheap option, far cheaper than arming Ukraine?! After all, our leftist, woke brigade doesn’t demand US$60 billion in gifts or F16s. They just want a few cushy gigs and table scrap, and they will happily lick your arse and do your bidding. They can go to Yale or Harvard and shout about free Gaza. They will declare pronouns, cry for Ukraine, and wait for the call from Soros or Omidyar.
Now where is the risk? That India will get upset and move away from all this “strategic partner” talk, however much a load of BS that is? That we will stop buying US arms? That we will kiss and make up with China and join them to take on the USA? Unlikely. Mind you, it’s not as if we are doing exactly what they want, so it cuts both ways.
At worst, they know the Modi sarkar will grind their teeth and bear it. Maybe get their SM trolls to vent their anger.
Turning to what we must do or can do, first, let us understand a few things clearly.
- The rise of India, whether it happens now or in 100 years, can only happen with our strength. Not because Uncle Sam or the EU wants it. Even small countries can’t manage that, and we are too big to even discuss this.
- Pretty much EVERY country on earth, other than small ones that can hang on to our coattails or ones too small and far away will likely be concerned with this rise simply because they don’t know what it means for them. That’s natural. No amount of our reassurance will mean anything.
- To expect the USA, today’s lone superpower, to sit quiet and watch this hoping it will turn out to be good for them is foolish.
- US rivalry with China too is not written in stone. Who can guess the course of post-Xi China? Or even post-communist? Even if it were an immediate threat, the US knows that it will have to do all the heavy lifting and not rely on the likes of India that change regime every 5 years, and can be unreliable.
That said, let us see what we can do.
- It is tempting to do a ‘two can play this game’ thing and try similar tricks that may irritate the wokes currently in power. I think it is worth doing that, provided we know clearly the limitations and are under no illusions.
- More importantly, send a subtle but clear message that there will be real price to pay for this sort of action.
- Expand strategic room to play. If US is not wedded to perpetual hostility to China and can turn on a dime it Xi orders a few Boeing or does something that pleases Biden, should we try to remain fixed to our chains? Whether or not we get there, just making some noises in that direction will send a powerful message.
- Focus on building strength. These are distractions.
- Just as China, its imports and exports, its supply chain, and its business prospects are important to the US until the very last moment when armed conflict develops, it if does at all, the US and its economy are important to us. Keep that perspective in mind.
- Remember – propaganda is a twin-edged sword – the very fact that some individuals are willing to out themselves as US stooges or favorites reduces their value for Uncle Sam. It creates suspicion that all their future statements are just sponsored advertorials. That can be exploited. This game is played in much more indirect, sophisticated ways.
- BJP has its work cut out just as any non-woke left leader in the world has – Orban, Milei, Meloni, Sunak, etc. They will face hostility and naked blatant propaganda from the left-controlled media and the US establishment controlled by the woke left. Coolies will be hired to do the dirty job. That should lead to a focus on creating an alternate ecosystem with as much power as that left has – not an easy job but we must start somewhere.
