The results of the Haryana and Jammu & Kashmir Assembly Elections are almost out. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) was leading on 38 seats and had won 13 seats at the time when this report was written, and is set to get majority. On the other hand, Congress was leading on 20 seats and had won 14. The BJP is on a clear path to victory in Haryana despite a decade of anti-incumbency, a change of chief minister mid-term, farmer protests, and more. Another national party, the Aam Aadmi Party has failed miserably, as it did not secure enough votes to save its deposit in many seats.
The Haryana Assembly Elections have delivered a clear message. Congress has definitely secured victories in Muslim-majority and Jat-majority regions in the state. However, in lieu of wooing Muslim and Jat voters during campaigning, it appears that Congress forgot these two sections do not form the majority in the state. The BJP was facing many challenges but triumphed elsewhere by consolidating the votes of other communities.
Congress dominated Muslim-majority areas but failed to stop victory of BJP in Haryana
In constituencies like Nuh, Ferozepur Jhirka, and Punahana, Congress displayed remarkable strength. It capitalised on the local demographics and tensions from the violence that took place on 31st July, 2023. Though Hindus were the target during the violence, Muslims have been painted as victims by several agencies and political parties. Congress appeared to have taken advantage of this fact and worked its “magic”.
Congress’s Aftab Ahmed secured a victory in Nuh with a margin of over 46,963 votes. On the other hand, Mamman Khan won Ferozepur Jhirka with a margin of 98,221 votes. Not to forget, Mamman is one of the accused in the Nuh violence, and the case is sub judice in court. However, his involvement in the riots seemed to have become a factor that resonated with voters in the region.
Similarly, Mohammad Ilyas from Punahana won the seat by 31,916 votes, marking Congress’s stronghold in Muslim-majority regions. Interestingly, BJP had also fielded Muslim candidates in Punahana (Mohd Aizaz Khan) and Ferozepur Jhirka (Naseem Ahmed), but they did not secure enough votes to win these seats. Aizaz Khan, in fact, lost his deposit. However, despite Congress’s success in these regions, how the BJP performed in the rest of the state literally broke the backbone of Congress’s campaigning strategies.
BJP’s non-Jat vote consolidation: A strategic win
In these elections, BJP showcased its ability to triumph in areas beyond the Jat and Muslim-dominated constituencies. The ruling party faced anti-incumbency, farmer protests, and discontent over the Agniveer scheme. However, it adopted a different strategy this time and did not focus on large-scale rallies which looked to have worked for securing victory for BJP in Haryana. BJP’s campaigning in Haryana was more localised, targeting the non-Jat voter base.
BJP’s superstar campaigner, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, held fewer rallies this year compared to 2019. In the last assembly elections, PM Modi held 10 rallies in Haryana, but this time it was brought down to just four. What now appears to have been the party’s changed electoral strategy was earlier seen as a sign that BJP was not sure about winning Haryana for the third time. There were some whispers in the background that PM Modi was avoiding Haryana as Congress was predicted to win the assembly elections. However, the opposition was tricked, and BJP emerged as the winner for the third time in a row.
Congress seemed overly reliant on its Jat voter base. In doing so, it overlooked the significance of the Scheduled Castes (SC) reserved seats and the growing influence of non-Jat voters in the state, especially in the Ahirwal belt, which consists of Rewari, Bawal, Kosli, Badshahpur, Pataudi, Ateli, Gurgaon, Nangal Chaudhary, Narnaul, and Mahendragarh constituencies. Out of these, only Nangal Chaudhary showed positive signs for Congress, while the rest were dominated by BJP.
Jats constitute only 25-28% of the population in the state. Congress tried to strategise its dominance in Jat-majority areas but seemed to have neglected other groups, which has proven costly. BJP’s strong dominance in non-Jat regions has shown it has the ability to reach beyond the Jat electorate and tap into a broader vote base, giving the opposition a run for its money.
RSS’s pivotal role in BJP victory in Haryana
Though BJP’s political tactics worked perfectly in the Haryana Assembly Elections, the role of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) in the victory cannot be overlooked. RSS played a crucial role by conducting extensive grassroots campaigns months before the election date. As per reports, RSS organised 16,000 small meetings across Haryana, which significantly changed the voting numbers. These gatherings were focused on winning over non-Jat voters and ensured that the BJP retained its stronghold in rural areas.
The RSS’s approach was simple but effective. It deployed 150 volunteers per district in a comprehensive rural outreach programme from September to ensure BJP’s message was delivered directly to voters’ homes. Their efforts extended to public spaces where volunteers explained the policies implemented by the central and state governments. The campaign was carefully aligned to deliver the message to rural constituencies aiming to secure victory for BJP in Haryana.
Notably, the RSS also worked closely with BJP leaders to ensure coordination on key decisions, including the selection of candidates and booth management. These meetings helped streamline election efforts, with a clear focus on mobilising non-Jat communities to address local concerns.
The backing of RSS was crucial in several areas where BJP initially appeared weak. The grassroots work of the RSS not only bolstered the party’s rural voter base but also helped mitigate some of the negative sentiment arising from contentious issues like the farm protests and the Agniveer scheme.
Congress’s neglect of non-Jats: A costly mistake
What cost Congress the most in these elections was its failure to pay attention to non-Jat communities. The Dalit vote, once considered a reliable Congress stronghold, was fractured, with several Dalit-focused political parties aligning with smaller regional players, allowing BJP to benefit from this division.
Conclusion
The Assembly Election results in Haryana underscored two key dynamics: Congress’s dominance in Jat and Muslim-majority areas and BJP’s success in consolidating non-Jat voters, particularly in rural constituencies. The role of the RSS in this election cannot be understated. The grassroots campaigning and strategic meetings with BJP leadership were instrumental in ensuring the party’s success. The victory of BJP in Haryana for the third time will go a long way in boosting the morale of the party supporters.
