New Delhi and Beijing have agreed to resume patrolling to the “agreed perceived Line of Actual Control,” including in Depsang Plains and Demchok, the two lingering flashpoints in eastern Ladakh where the two countries have been eyeball-to-eyeball for almost four-and-a-half years. Furthermore, the agreement with China will involve reducing the number of locations in Arunachal Pradesh, which during the previous four years have become hotspots for tension, reported The Economic Times.
The new agreement with China specifically covers two regions, Yangtse and Asaphila. Tensions were rekindled in December 2022 when Indian and Chinese troops engaged in a large-scale confrontation in Yangtse. Chinese troops attempted to breach the LAC and destroy the Army’s freshly erected defences, which led to the conflict. The attack was foiled after it occurred on an Indian post overlooking recently constructed PLA infrastructure. Over the past few years, there have also been numerous faceoffs and small-scale conflicts in the heavily forested Asaphila sector. The broader disengagement and de-escalation process in Arunachal Pradesh is expected to require more time, effort, and communication with China because it is far more complicated than the situation in Ladakh, according to sources.
On 22nd October, a day after the development transpired, Army Chief General Upendra Dwivedi emphasised that multiple measures need to be taken after which disengagement, de-escalation, and regular Line of Actual Control (LAC) management will follow. He mentioned that the two sides are trying to “restore trust” and “reassure each other” while addressing the 28th Colonel Pyara Lal Memorial lecture organised by the United Service Institution of India.
“As of now what has happened? We are trying to restore the trust. How will the trust be restored? It will get restored once we can see each other and convince each other that we are not creeping into the buffer zones that are there and have been created. Both must reassure each other. Patrolling gives you that kind of advantage. So that is what something which is commencing. And as we restore the trust, the other stages will also follow through soon,” he conveyed to the audience.
He was alluding to a more extensive de-escalation process that will entail the withdrawal of hundreds of troops who have been stationed in eastern Ladakh since 2020. The external affairs ministry stated that a patrolling agreement with China has been reached, and as of April 2020, the status quo will be reinstated. According to information obtained, positions in Arunachal Pradesh that have had flare-ups over the previous four years would also witness ease in positions as part of the broader agreement.
General Dwivedi stated, “As far as we are concerned, we want to go back to the status quo of April 2020. Thereafter we will be looking at disengagement, de-escalation and normal management of LAC. The normal management of LAC will not stop there. There are phases in that also. This has been our stance since April 2020, and even today it remains the same. As we restore the trust, the other stages will also follow through. This has been our stance from April 2020 when Lieutenant General YK Joshi was the Army Commander and even today that remains the same.”
The agreement on patrolling arrangements is expected to lead to disengagement, de-escalation and de-militarisation in areas where 50,000 to 60,000 troops are stationed on either side. Indian and Chinese troops will reportedly patrol the territories as they did before April 2020, and the departure of competing troops from Depsang and Demchok would undoubtedly not entail the establishment of designated buffer zones. There will be a difference between this disengagement and the earlier troop withdrawal rounds that included the formation of buffer zones. According to reports, the disengagement of front-line Chinese and Indian soldiers from Depsang and Demchok is anticipated to start in a few days and conclude in a few weeks.
The troop withdrawal is anticipated to be executed in stages as the intricate plan develops, as both parties can verify it on the ground. Additionally, it will gradually remove weapons and equipment to a predetermined distance until the status quo ante (early April 2020) is restored.
After troop disengagements on both banks of Pangong Tso, encompassing the Kailash range, Galwan Valley, and the greater Gogra-Hot Springs area, earlier in September 2022, China and India established no-patrol buffer zones, ranging from 3 to 10 kilometres. The purpose of these zones of separation was to prevent violent confrontations.. Thousands of soldiers from both armies remain in the Ladakh theatre, along with their cutting-edge equipment.
A senior officer warned that India should take precautions against “Doklam being repeated” in eastern Ladakh, as the pullout is now planned for the strategically important Depsang Plains and the Charding Ninglung Nallah track junction close to Demchok. “Trust but verify. China should not be allowed to change facts on the ground and then present them as a fait accompli,” he voiced.
In 2017, Indian troops halted Chinese attempts to expand its motorable route towards the Jampheri Ridge, which overlooks the strategically sensitive Siliguri Corridor, resulting in a 73-day standoff on the Bhutanese territory of Doklam. The PLA (People’s Liberation Army) built extensive military facilities and permanently stationed troops in north Doklam following the disengagement.
On 1st October General Dwivedi expressed that trust between the Indian Army and PLA was “the biggest casualty” of the military stalemate, characterizing the situation along the LAC in eastern Ladakh as “stable but sensitive.” He highlighted at the time that while diplomatic signals are encouraging, military leaders on both sides must carry out their options on the ground to move things along.
On 29th August, the Working Mechanism for Consultation and Coordination (WMCC) on border issues between China and India convened in Beijing for the seventeenth time since the conflict began in May 2020. To reduce tensions along the LAC, the two forces have also had 21 rounds of discussions at the corps commander level.
