Russia’s attack on Ukraine on 24th February 2022, marked a significant escalation of the Russo-Ukrainian War, which began in 2014. This war, the largest and deadliest conflict in Europe since World War II, has caused hundreds of thousands of military casualties and tens of thousands of civilian casualties. However, since the West, especially the United States has openly supported Ukraine with weapons and billions of dollars in aid in the armed confrontation with Russia, the situation is only getting worse with time.
Ukraine’s military used several long-range ATACMS provided by the United States to strike a military and civilian airfield in the Kursk area of Russia on 25th November and a few days later on 27th November, it launched a barrage of the United Kingdom’s Storm Shadow cruise missiles into Russia, marking a significant tipping point in the struggle which entered its 1,000th day this week.
While Kyiv responded that it needs the ability to defend itself by attacking Russian rear sites used to assist Moscow’s assault, the Kremlin warned that employing Western weaponry to attack Russian territory far from the border would be a significant escalation in the conflict.
Meanwhile, President Vladimir Putin threatened Kyiv with Oreshnik missiles if Ukraine continues to remain aggressive. On 28th November he stated that Russia might deploy its new hypersonic missile to strike “decision-making centers” in Kyiv in reaction to Ukraine’s firing of Western missiles toward Russian territory.
Notably, Russia has not yet targeted Ukrainian government ministries, parliament or the president’s office during the long 33-month battle. However, the recent development could exacerbate the already dire situation.
Although Kyiv has strong air defenses, Putin declared that the Oreshnik, which Russia fired for the first time on 21st November at the Ukrainian city of Dnipro, cannot be intercepted.
He had earlier conveyed that Moscow tested the latest intermediate-range missile in an attack on Ukraine’s Dnipro region because of “the aggressive actions of NATO countries.” He further emphasised, “The targets for destruction during further tests of our newest missile systems will be determined by us based on the threats to the security of the Russian Federation. We consider ourselves entitled to use our weapons against military facilities of those countries that allow their weapons to be used against our facilities,” in an address on national television.
During a press conference in Kazakhstan on 28th November, he revealed that the Oreshnik is virtually unstoppable by any air defense system. “We will use the means at our disposal. We do not exclude the use of Oreshnik against the (Ukrainian) military, against military industrial facilities, or against decision-making centers, including in Kyiv, bearing in mind that the Kyiv authorities today continue to attempt to strike our vital facilities,” he announced.
⚡️ 'There are no equivalents to Russia's 'Oreshnik' in the world, and none will appear anytime soon,' stated the Russian leader as he highlighted the superiority of the country’s newest missile system during the CSTO summit in Astana. pic.twitter.com/CAA8KqCHHk
— RT (@RT_com) November 28, 2024
Putin clarified that Russia’s new Oreshnik missile isn’t currently fitted with nuclear warheads, however, he highlighted that it had “comparable strength to a nuclear strike” if fired repeatedly on a single target. Oreshnik can drop a nuclear payload and fire several warheads simultaneously.
“The kinetic impact is powerful, like a meteorite falling. We know in history what meteorites have fallen where, and what the consequences were. Sometimes it was enough for whole lakes to form. Dozens of warheads will hit the target at a speed of 3km/second. Everything in the epicentre is broken down into fractions, into elementary particles, essentially turning into dust. The impact is similar to a meteorite strike. There are no equals to Oreshnik in the world, and there won’t be anytime soon,” he pointed out in a statement.
Putin asserted, “Of course, we will respond to the ongoing strikes on Russian territory with long-range Western-made missiles, as has already been said, including by possibly continuing to test the Oreshnik in combat conditions, as was done on 21st November,” to the leaders of a security coalition of former Soviet nations and added, “At present, the Ministry of Defence and the General Staff are selecting targets to hit on Ukrainian territory. These could be military facilities, defence and industrial enterprises, or decision-making centres in Kyiv.”
Oreshnik missile:
— RT (@RT_com) November 29, 2024
– Top speed: Mach 10 (12,380 km/h)
– Rapid targeting: Can strike major European cities within minutes
– High penetration capability: Effective against heavily protected targets
– Strike power comparable to nuclear weapons pic.twitter.com/KmfFvum2q6
“You know, in Soviet times there was a joke about weather forecasts. Here’s the forecast: today, during the day, anything is possible,” he replied when asked if the “decision-making centers” the Kremlin warned it might target are political or military. His statement came after the United States, United Kingdom and France decided to provide Ukraine with long-range missiles, which he regards as a reaction to Russia’s military actions.
What makes the Oreshnik missile so deadly
Putin informed that Russia had launched a “new conventional intermediate-range” missile with the Oreshnik, which translates to “hazelnut” in Russian, in a television speech hours after the hit on Dnipro. He stated that it was tested “in a non-nuclear hypersonic configuration” and successfully struck its objective. “There is no nuclear warhead, and that means there is no nuclear contamination after its use,” he declared characterizing the missile as a “precision weapon” rather than a weapon of mass destruction. However, according to military analysts, the rocket might be equipped with nuclear warheads.
The witnesses disclosed that the assault was exceptional and caused three hours of continuous explosions. One of the missiles used in the attack was so potent that Ukrainian officials later claimed it had the characteristics of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) while Putin affirmed that the new addition Oreshnik is hypersonic, manoeuvrable and impossible to intercept with existing air defence systems including the sophisticated ones from the Western countries.
He stressed that “there are currently no ways of counteracting this weapon” and the missile travelled at a speed of Mach 10, or 2.5–3 km/s (10 times the speed of sound). The president added that a significant military-industrial facility in Dnipro that produces missiles and other weapons had been struck. The “target was reached” made the attack “successful” in his assessment of the test. A day later, he told top defense officials that the missile would continue to be tested, “including in combat conditions.” Oreshnik can also hit targets all throughout Europe.
The destructive materials inside the missile, which can carry “dozens of homing warheads,” can reach temperatures of 4,000 degrees Celsius, which is equivalent to the surface of the Sun. Putin highlighted its capacity to infiltrate highly secured targets without contaminating them with nuclear material. Experts speculate that Oreshnik could be equipped with nuclear warheads even though it was deployed with a conventional payload in Dnipro. A mass strike with Oreshnik might be as powerful as nuclear weapons, according to both Putin and Sergei Karakayev, commander of missile forces.
On the other hand, according to Ukrainian military intelligence, the missile is a brand-new ICBM called Kedr (cedar). They claimed that it took 15 minutes to reach from the launch location, which was over 1,000 kilometers (620 miles) distant in the Russian Astrakhan region, while traveling at Mach 11. Ukraine established that it attained a maximum speed of 13,600 kph (8,450 mph) as experts claimed the Oreshnik carried dummy warheads rather than live explosives.
They reported that the missile had six warheads, each of which contained six submunitions. A grainy video of the hit has also surfaced. Six flashes against the night sky are clearly apparent, each consisting of a cluster of six separate missiles. The area that was struck is an industrial zone southwest of the city of Dnipro.
The first combat use of Russia’s new Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile has drawn scrutiny from Western military experts https://t.co/jCAQZCxb9Y pic.twitter.com/3Q19kg8pWU
— Reuters (@Reuters) November 28, 2024
The missile is at the upper end of the hypersonic range, which few objects can reach, based on Russia’s description. Speed is crucial because a missile gets to its destination sooner the faster it travels. A defending military has less time to respond the quicker it reaches its target. A ballistic missile typically reaches its target by arcing up into the atmosphere and down towards its goal. The missile is at the upper end of the hypersonic range, which few objects can reach, based on Russia’s description. Speed is crucial because a missile gets to its destination sooner the faster it travels.
However, it gains kinetic energy and accelerates as it descends, and the more kinetic energy it has, the more alternatives it possesses. This enables it to move in the direction of the target by executing a defensive manoeuvre, which makes it more challenging for surface-to-air missile systems (like Ukraine’s US-made Patriot defence system) to intercept it.
Undoubtedly, this is not novel for a military that must defend against such threats, but it grows exceedingly complex as the speed increases. It could be the reason why Putin emphasized speed while announcing the missile. Meanwhile, Pentagon reported that Oreshnik is a modification of Russia’s intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), the RS-26 Rubezh, which has been in testing since 2011.
Oreshnik’s range and capabilities
Ilya Kramnik, a Russian military specialist, told the newspaper Izvestiya that the new missile, whose development has been classified up to this point, is probably at the top end of the medium-range missile spectrum. “It is likely that we are dealing with a new generation of Russian intermediate-range missiles (with a range of) 2,500-3,000km (1,550-1,860 miles) and potentially extending to 5,000km (3,100 miles), but not intercontinental,” he unveiled.
“Nearly all of Europe could potentially be within range of Oreshnik”, he added, “It is obviously equipped with a separating warhead with individual guidance units.” He speculated that it might be a scaled-down version of the ICBM Yars-M missile complex. According to reports, Russia began producing a new version of this missile complex last year that featured separate warheads that were far more mobile.
Oreshnik missile: How fast can it reach major European cities?
— RT (@RT_com) November 28, 2024
Approximate travel times for the Oreshnik missile to major European capitals:
– London: 20 minutes
– Warsaw: 12 minutes
– Berlin: 15 minutes
– Paris: 20 minutes pic.twitter.com/9qC176tHxK
Dmitry Kornev, another analyst, told the outlet that the Oreshnik might have been developed using a new generation engine and based on the shorter-range Iskander missiles, which are already frequently employed against Ukraine. He disclosed that the missile might have been an Iskander with a larger engine that was utilized at the Kapustin Yar test site in southern Russia last spring. The same location was used to fire the missile into Ukraine.
Vladislav Shurygin, a military analyst, told Izvestiya that the Oreshnik could defeat any contemporary missile defence system in place. He explained that although there is no proof of subterranean installations being destroyed at the Dnipro plant, it could also demolish well-protected bunkers at considerable depths without the aid of a nuclear bomb. The missile carried several independently directed warheads, based on another Russian specialist, Igor Korotchenko.
He told the Tass news agency that the “practically simultaneous arrival of the warheads at the target” was quite successful. The CEO and founder of Sibylline, a risk consultancy firm, Justin Crump, told BBC Verify that the missile might pose a severe threat to Ukraine’s air defences. “Russia’s short-range ballistic missiles have been one of the more potent threats to Ukraine in this conflict. Faster, more advanced systems would increase that an order of magnitude,” he further mentioned.
Oreshnik was created in 2023 on Putin’s orders and is reportedly a contemporary invention as opposed to a Soviet-era improvement. According to reports, serial production has started, although Ukrainian intelligence alleged that there are only a few prototypes. Notably, the latest addition to the Kremlin’s arsenal has been projected as a testament to Russian technological strength, produced by a local military sector free from Western economic sanctions.
