The saffron party won 48 out of the 90 assembly constituencies, 2 more than the seats required to form a government in the state. On the other hand, the principal opposition party, Congress, bagged 35 seats, a disappointing figure vis-a-vis lofty claims made by Congress leaders, supporters, and pliant journalists pretending to be ‘neutral’ election observers who pegged the party winning 55-62 seats.
Ever since the Congress lost the 2024 Lok Sabha elections with better numbers than their 2019 tally, their ranks and supporters had been upbeat about the party’s prospects in subsequent elections. But Haryana’s defeat has jolted the party, especially after its leader Rahul Gandhi had been aggressively ratcheting up his divisive campaign with his caste and reservations bluster.
Against this background, it is worth assessing how the reserved seats polled in Haryana.
Out of 90 Assembly constituencies, 17 were reserved for the candidates belonging to the Scheduled castes. These are Bawal, Sadhaura, Shahbad, Guhla, Nilokheri, Israna, Kharkhoda, Narwana, Ratia, Kalanwali, Uklana, Bawani Khera, Kalanaur, Jhajjar, Mulana, Pataudi, and Hodal.
Here’s a quick snapshot of who won the 17 seats reserved for the candidates belonging to the SC community:
The BJP won 8 out of the 17 seats while the Congress party won 9. In terms of percentage, the BJP won 47 per cent of the reserved seats while the Congress party won approximately 53 per cent seats. Some of the victories, for both Congress and the BJP, have been substantial such as Pataudi for the BJP where Bimla Choudhary won with a margin of a staggering 46, 530 votes and Congress’ Naresh Selwal from Uklana, who won by more than 28,000 votes.
There are 17 SC reserved seats in Haryana. Out of the 17, the BJP won 8 while the Congress won 9. It seems like the Dalit vote did not consolidate behind either party, however, favoured Congress in the Haryana Assembly Election pic.twitter.com/XntsLyiZqv
— OpIndia.com (@OpIndia_com) October 9, 2024
The BJP’s performance is particularly remarkable, given that it came in the wake of the Congress party’s increased focus on caste rhetoric, especially after the Lok Sabha elections, where the Congress party bettered its previous tally of 52 to 99. During the elections, Congress leaders, particularly Rahul Gandhi, went overdrive with his rhetorics on caste census and ‘Jiski jitni aabadi uska utna haq’, designed to woo the reserved classes and break the Hindu consolidation achieved by the BJP under Modi. But the results show that Dalits in Haryana haven’t consolidated behind either of the two political parties.
The Congress leaders and supporters were labouring under the belief that the caste rhetorics had managed to cause a substantial dent in BJP’s vote share. For a while, the BJP thought it was best to emulate the Congress party to ensure they didn’t lose out on the Dalit votes. It briefly dabbled in caste politics with ‘Shoshit Vanchit Samaj’ rhetorics. There appeared to be a tussle between the two political parties regarding who was the greater champion of Dalit rights.
But the results on the 17 SC reserved seats demonstrate the lack of consolidation of Dalits behind any single party. The BJP, on its part, also appears to have realised their folly of pandering to the Congress playbook of fuelling caste divisions and enfeebling the Hindu society. It promptly course-corrected, with the two stalwart saffron leaders, Yogi Adityanath and later PM Modi, both cautioning Hindus against the politics of division with ‘Batoge toh Katoge’ warning.
The results on the 17 SC reserved seats in Haryana bear a lesson for both, Congress and the BJP. For Congress, it is a learning that the caste census and reservation politics may have run their course, as evident in the results of the Haryana state assembly, where Congress managed to do only marginally well than its rival, BJP, despite taking desperate measures, including circulating fake claims attributed to Amit Shah and the BJP, to project itself as the party of the reserved classes.
As more and more Indians join the country’s growth story, distinctions such as caste, colour, creed, and gender, are bound to lose their relevance in electoral politics, which seemed to have played out in Haryana, where both the Congress and the BJP drew an almost equal number of seats, highlighting that caste may no longer be an election issue for the public. It may still be a social issue in some pockets of the country, but in Haryana, other issues trumped caste identity.
For the BJP, the victory in Haryana is remarkable, particularly after the Lok Sabha elections where it sought the ambitious target of winning 400 seats but ended up with 240, relying on its alliance members to form a government at the centre. The lesson for the BJP in these elections is that instead of going on a wild goose chase and allowing Congress to set the narrative, the saffron party should focus and build on its strength, and communicate its achievements effectively to the public. Rather than allowing their decisions to be driven by the fear of being projected as anti-Dalit, the BJP should confidently articulate its vision for the reserved classes and how the brand of politics embraced by the Congress party threatens to disrupt the social fabric of the country and sow divisions within the Hindu society.
Blindly following the opposition party because it is toying with the dangerous idea of dividing the Hindu society on caste lines could be counterproductive, especially when the country has a burgeoning general class that may not take the brazen pandering kindly and punish them in elections. The best bet for the BJP is to keep focusing on bringing economic improvement for the public while simultaneously forging Hindu consolidation like it has been doing for the last 10 years in power. That’s perhaps the only way to ensure Congress’ caste rhetorics die their natural death and pose no electoral hurdles for them in future.
Be it Congress or the BJP, the Dalits in Haryana did not consolidate behind either of the political parties, sending a message to them that identity politics may have run its course and there are more crucial issues that concern the Dalits than appeasement, census, and reservations.
