In the recent US Presidential elections, former President Donald Trump made a historic comeback winning a second term to become the 47th President of the United States of America. Donald Trump even won the popular vote along with the electoral vote. Notably, the US Senate is also now a Republican majority with 52 seats. For the first time since 2004, when incumbent George W. Bush received 50.7% of the national vote and Democratic opponent John Kerry received 48.3%, the Republicans won the popular vote.
While the Democrats and liberals are suffering a massive meltdown over the people of America ascending Donald Trump back to the helm of power, it is pertinent to understand what factors contribute to this paradigm shift.
Trump’s message on rising inflation resonated with the voters
Inflation was one of the major issues in the US impacting voter perspective. Under Biden’s presidency, persistent inflation drove up the cost of living, especially for food, housing, and petrol expenses. Many middle and lower-class voters felt the pinch of inflation in the last 4 years, and despite the Federal Reserve’s efforts to contain inflation with interest rate hikes, the economic recovery appeared slow. The Republican leader’s campaign successfully capitalised on this dissatisfaction, positioning himself as the candidate capable of restoring economic stability and decreasing the expenses.
According to the national exit polling data from Edison Research, approximately 31% of voters stated the economy was their top issue, trailing only 35% who said that the state of democracy was most vital for them. Moreover, the voters who cited the economy as their top issue largely supported Trump against Harris, 79% to 20%.
According to the US government’s consumer price index, inflation increased by 20.1% during President Joe Biden’s first 45 months in office, as opposed to 7.1% during Trump’s first 45 months. This translated into annualised inflation rates of 5.4% under Biden and 1.9% under Trump. Year-over-year inflation soared under Biden at a four-decade high of 9% in 2022 before declining to slightly more than 3%. Inflation is an issue that directly affects households and is thus, a core issue for the voters.
While campaigning, Donald Trump argued that the US economy was in disarray and his assertion resonated with numerous Americans who were dissatisfied with the cost of living surge, as well as increased loan and tax burdens throughout Joe Biden’s tenure. During his campaign, Donald Trump restated his intentions to reduce inflation and boost the general economy, which included cutting taxes, imposing high tariffs on imported goods, limiting migration, and reducing red tape. A significant number of American voters, yearning for a change, found Donald Trump to be the right man at the right time to lift them out of the Biden administration-inflicted misery.
How PM Modi dealt with inflation in India
Notably, even in the Indian electoral context, inflation has traditionally been a key issue, given the impact it has on people’s day-to-day living. While inflation is a subject that can never be out of discussion around elections, over the past few years, inflation has not been a focal point of electoral narratives in Inda suggesting that its effect has not been as intense as it had been before Prime Minister Narendra Modi first assumed the office in 2014.
Among myriad factors, the fact that PM Modi has the best record on inflation among all Indian Prime Ministers since independence indicates why he remains the most popular leader and people trust his leadership when it comes to India’s economic growth and stability. When PM Modi took office in May 2014, the inflation rate was approximately 8%. By December 2014, it had reduced to half of that, or roughly 4%. This displays a government’s capability and intent, and when the people see the beneficial outcomes, they vote to approve the leader and his programs. While PM Modi’s first, second, and current third terms were not without problems, the Modi government overcame them, including the impact of the Covid epidemic. While several countries’ economies were severely impacted by covid, India’s economy was able to control the harm and recover. Something the Biden administration grappled with, and voters could not forget the difficulties they faced during Covid pandemic, especially the mandatory vaccination rules.
How the Republican Party trumped the Democrats on the issue of undocumented immigrants
Another important factor influencing voter opinions in the US was the immigration situation at the US-Mexico border. Under Joe Biden’s presidency, there was an increase in illegal immigration, and border security became a contentious topic. The Republican campaign, led by Donald Trump, emphasised an overburdened immigration system and promised stronger border controls, appealing to people concerned about national security and the economic impact of unfettered immigration.
While Kamala Harris, back in 2017, said that “an undocumented immigrant is not a criminal”, Donald Trump, during his 2024 election campaign, promised mass deportation of undocumented immigrants, also reviewing the refugee program. Even during the presidential debate with Kamala Harris, Donald Trump had vehemently raised this issue and accused the Biden administration of allowing an unchecked influx of illegal immigrants.
The assertion made by Trump was that illegal immigrants are taking jobs, that US citizens should be having, and they were “destroying” the country. The people of the US wanted the government to tackle the illegal immigration menace and stop further infiltration, however, the Democrats failed to offer a concrete action plan or even show genuine intent, while Trump capitalised on the prevalent public anger. This anger eventually translated into votes for Trump.
In the Indian context, the Modi government has been very clear about its stance on illegal immigrants, especially the Bangladeshi infiltrators and Rohingya Muslims. Akin to the Democrats, the Indian opposition parties invoke ‘humanitarian grounds’ to allow Rohingya infiltrators to live in India. The American and the Indian people have grown sick and tired of appeasement politics in the name of DEI (Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion), humanity and other high-sounding terms liberals invoke to justify jeopardising national security for political or ideological gains.
Rural White Americans remain loyal to the Republican Party, Hispanics and Latinos trumped the Democrats
The rural Americans, who in 2016 also largely voted for Trump, expressed their faith in the Republican leader once again. There is a perception among White Rural Americans that the Democrats are a party of liberal elites who despise and ignore them. It is worth recalling how Hilary Clinton had mocked Trump voters during the 2016 campaign by calling them a “basket of deplorables”. She went on to call Trump supporters Xenophobic, Islamophobic, Homophobic, racist, sexist and so on.
In fact, in 2008, Barack Obama had called the small-town people “bitter” and those who “cling to guns or religion”. Incidentally, the Indian liberal parties and their supportive ecosystem also resort to such name-calling and villainising the people for voting the BJP to power at the Centre or states. The Indian voters, particularly, BJP supporting Hindus are labelled as Hindutva extremists, Andbhakts, illiterates, Islamophobes and what not. Recently, Joe Biden called Donald Trump’s supporters as “garbage”. You cannot mock the people of your country for having differing opinions and then expect them to vote for you.
While the Democrats tried hard to project Donald Trump as a racist leader, the voting pattern among the Hispanics and Latinos suggests a different story, a major shift.
Another factor that helped Trump gain ground among the American masses was his message of “bringing jobs back” to America and preserving domestic companies. This resonated in critical swing states among manufacturing and blue-collar workers who were feeling alienated by global economic trends.
When Trump talked about the threat of illegal immigrants taking over jobs of the US citizens, he said that jobs of all legal American citizens are at risk. “We have millions of people pouring into our country from prisons and jails, from mental institutions and insane asylums. And they’re coming in and they’re taking jobs that are occupied right now by African Americans and Hispanics and also unions. Unions are going to be affected very soon. And you see what’s happening. You see what’s happening with towns throughout the United States,” Trump said during a presidential debate in September.
Latinos and Hispanic voters played a crucial role in Donald Trump’s landslide victory over Kamala Harris in the US presidential election. Both communities have traditionally supported Democrats.
Overall, Trump raised his Latino vote share to 45%, up significantly from 32% in his 2020 loss to Joe Biden. Approximately 53% of voters in this group favoured Harris, down from an anticipated 60% who voted for Biden in 2020. A major reason behind this shift in loyalties is reported to be stemming from the support for Trump’s pledge to continue the construction of the Mexico border wall and carry out mass deportation of illegal immigrants. T
rump’s tactic to projecting Kamala Harris as a “communist” also seems to have helped bring Hispanics on his side given having a communist leader would be the last Hispanics coming from countries like Cuba, Venezuela, and Nicaragua would want. Notably, even the Arab Americans upset with Biden government over its handling of Israel’s war against Hamas terrorists in Gaza, also voted for Trump. Reports suggest that the Arab Americans in Michigan’s Dearborn, which is home to the largest Arab American community, have voted for Trump in huge numbers.
Trump’s campaign raised real issues while Kamala Harris’s hollow rhetoric and woke agenda got rejected by the Americans
The leitmotif of Kamala Harris’s campaign centred around projecting Trump as a threat to democracy and women’s rights while advocating for reproductive rights and the woke agenda.
During the 2020 and 2024 elections, Democrats used aggressive rhetoric to characterise Donald Trump and his followers as threats to democracy, using words like “fascism” and comparing them to “Nazis” (something common with Indian opposition and liberals who call Modi government fascist and the PM Modi as “Hitler”). This fear-mongering gained traction in 2020, while Trump was still in power, as voters feared authoritarianism and questioned the integrity of democratic institutions.
By 2024, however, Americans were tired of this fear-mongering, especially since the so-called democratic collapse did not occur under Trump’s first term. The people seem to have found the constant framing of every election as a defence of democracy from the Republican ‘Nazis’ to be increasingly hollow, especially as they dealt with urgent economic issues such as inflation, rising property prices, and job uncertainty. For the average American, the Democrats’ rhetoric of existential crisis appeared divorced from their everyday issues.
When voters were more concerned with affording food, paying rent, or finding a stable job, the Democrats’ emphasis on abstract cultural disputes appeared irrelevant. People were also not in the mood to support a party that may in any manner be supportive of what Elon Musk once called the “woke mind virus”.
Celebrity endorsements are useless
The 2024 elections served as a reality check to the Democrats that the hollow rhetoric of protecting democracy, upholding social justice, or simply symbolic messaging by nominating a woman candidate is not going to help them. Among many interesting aspects of this election, one was the celebrity endorsements.
From pop sensation Taylor Swift, Ariana Grande, rapper Cardi-B, to actor (and former Republican) Arnold Schwarzenegger, Oprah, Harrison Ford, and even Beyonce among many others endorsed Kamala Harris. Many of them are now suffering a major meltdown as their supposed nemesis has been re-elected with a thumping majority.
This indicates that celebrity endorsements turned out to be as valuable to the democrats as LGBTQs stripping and protesting on the streets for Hamas. The sheer futility of celebrity endorsements in these elections reflects that aware and concerned voters opted to apply their brains rather than rely on what a pop singer or an actor supports or opposes.
Even the media endorsements mean nothing on the ground, although The Washington Post invited severe backlash over its owner Jeff Bezos’ announcing’ decision to go neutral instead of continuing its trend of endorsing the Democratic Party candidate. In reality, such endorsements or even the decision to not endorse any candidate hardly makes any difference on the ground. It only affects the party loyalists on both sides.
Real-world issues will decide the outcome of elections: A lesson for democracies across the world
The US election results serve as an eye-opener that the awakened voter voting on real issues may be a global phenomenon and democracies need to realise this. The aware voter, be it in America, India, or any other functional democracy will not fall for the “constitution in danger”, “right-wing is fascist, Nazi” or “anti-minority” rhetoric, but rather would evaluate the candidates based on the vision, ideology and policies they offer to solve their issues, secure their country and lead them on the path of development and prosperity.
In India, the world’s largest democracy, the 2024 Lok Sabha elections showed that while caste and religion-based politics may have not completely disappeared, the opposition’s constant fear-mongering around the constitution, the threat of the future of democracy, the threat of fascism did not work. Rather, people gave importance to what the government did for their welfare and national security. The need to have a strong leader who would safeguard people’s national interests on the global stage fuelled the nationalistic sentiments in both Indian and American voters. In a nutshell, economic priorities are paramount, polarised identity politics cannot substitute for issue-based campaigns. People are done with good vs evil, social justice vs fascism sort of polarising rhetoric. This no longer piques the interest of the voters.
