On 23rd November, the Election Commission of India announced the results of assembly polls and by-polls in different states. In a stunning political upset, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) secured a decisive win in the assembly by-polls at Kundarki in the Moradabad district of Uttar Pradesh, where all the other candidates, including the Samajwadi Party (SP), lost their deposits.
Interestingly, the seat has over 60% Muslim voters. The BJP secured victory on this seat after a long gap of 31 years. BJP’s Ramveer Singh Thakur emerged victorious in Kundarki with an overwhelming margin, securing over 1.7 lakh votes out of a total of 2.22 lakh votes cast.
Only Hindu candidate triumphed in Muslim-majority seat
Kundarki is known for its demographics. There were 13 candidates contesting this seat, with Ramveer Singh Thakur being the only Hindu contender. Reportedly, Thakur followed a simple strategy- Directly engaging with the Muslim voters in the region. Muslims are traditionally known for voting for the Samajwadi Party (SP) in Kundarki, but Thakur’s approach worked for him, and Muslims played a significant role in his victory. His outreach efforts were backed by his party targeting specific Muslim communities, which turned out to be effective, resulting in his unimaginable win.
According to ECI’s data, Thakur received 1,70,371 votes, including 68 out of 98 postal ballots. It showed he became popular among every section of society in the region, including government employees. In stark contrast, SP candidate Mohammad Rizwan secured only 25,580 votes and lost by a margin of 1,44,791 votes. AIMIM and Azad Samaj Party candidates secured 8,111 and 14,194 votes, respectively.
BJP’s focused strategy reshaped voting patterns
During campaigning, the BJP made efforts to unite the Muslim Rajput and Turk communities. Among the total voters in the constituency, 62% are Muslims. Of these, around 45,000 are Muslim Rajputs, and around 40,000 are Turks. They played a key role in the victory of the BJP’s candidate. The BJP conducted frequent minority-focused meetings led by the party’s minority cell chief, Kunwar Basit Ali. Thakur’s personal outreach was also a key factor in shifting the narrative in favour of the BJP.
Above all, Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath and Deputy CM Brajesh Pathak extensively campaigned in the region. Both of them held over 100 minority meetings among them. Ramveer Singh Thakur did not shy away from symbolism and was seen wearing the traditional skullcap paired with an Arab scarf during his outreach efforts in Kundarki, which conveyed his message of inclusiveness. Opposition leaders like Akhilesh Yadav criticised him throughout the campaigning, but it did not have the intended impact.
Kundarki’s result reflects shifting political dynamics
The election results in Kundarki show that political dynamics can shift in Muslim-majority areas. The BJP challenged the traditional voting patterns with a specific strategy that worked well. The focused engagement with specific communities and high-profile campaigning helped the BJP turn a 31-year drought into a historic victory.
What does it mean to lose a deposit
According to the Representation of People Act, 1951, candidates contesting general or assembly elections are required to submit a security deposit of Rs 25,000 or Rs 10,000, respectively, with the Election Commission of India. The measure is in place to ensure only serious candidates participate in elections. To save the deposit, candidates must secure at least one-sixth of the total valid votes. If they fail to do so, the amount is considered forfeited.
For example, in Kundarki, the total number of valid votes was 2,22,097. Out of these, BJP’s Ramveer Singh Thakur secured 1,70,371 votes, which is 76.71% of the total votes. To save the deposit, a candidate had to secure 37,016 votes or 16.66% of the total votes. However, the Samajwadi Party’s candidate Mohammad Rizwan secured only 25,580 votes, which was 11.52% of the total votes, or 11,436 votes less than the required threshold.
