The National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), has performed extraordinarily well in the Maharashtra Assembly elections. The BJP contested 149 seats, out of which it secured victory in 132, which equates to 89% hit rate.
Notably, during Lok Sabha elections earlier this year, the BJP-led alliance managed to win only 17 out of 48 Lok Sabha seats in the state.
With these results, the saffron party overcame the Lok Sabha setback earlier in the year. The assembly elections victory marked a significant comeback for the BJP-led alliance and demonstrated that the BJP’s effective strategies can secure voters’ trust. Together, BJP-Shiv Sena (Shinde)-NCP (Ajit Pawar) constitute Mahayuti Alliance in Maharashtra.
BJP transforms from junior ally to dominant force
The BJP has come a long way in Maharashtra over the past three decades. Notably, it secured only 42 seats in 1990 elections in alliance with Bal Thackeray’s Shiv Sena, and played the role of a junior partner. Three decades down the line, the party has emerged as a dominant force in the state.
Notably, there are 288 assembly seats in Maharashtra. The BJP alone has secured victory in 45% of the seats required for a majority.
In contrast, Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena, which he claims to be the original Shiv Sena, has been reduced to just 20 seats. The influence of his leadership can be visibly seen as his party has visibly declined in the state, especially after joining hands with the Congress.
If the results are compared to the Lok Sabha elections held just five months ago, the victory becomes even more impressive. During that period, Congress led in 63 Assembly segments, and the BJP managed lead only in 79. In contrast, Congress fell flat in the Assembly elections, securing just 16 seats, while the BJP surged to 132 seats out of 149 it contested. It is evident that the Maharashtra voters have the ability to re-calibrate approach in a short span and perform in an unprecedented way.
Regional performance highlights BJP’s dominance
Mumbai is the traditional bastion of the Shiv Sena. The BJP secured 15 out of 36 seats there, while ally Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena faction secured six seats. Another ally NCP (Ajit Pawar faction) also secured one seat. The most significant shift was seen among urban voters who rejected Uddhav’s Shiv Sena, Congress, and Sharad Pawar led faction of NCP, and voted for the BJP-led alliance.
Vidarbha, facing challenges such as drought and farmer suicides, saw the BJP secure 39 seats out of 62. Historically, it has been an RSS-BJP stronghold and is home to leaders like Nitin Gadkari and Devendra Fadnavis. Eknath Shinde’s party also secured four seats, and Ajit Pawar’s NCP secured six seats.
In Konkan, the BJP and Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena secured 16 seats each, while Ajit Pawar’s NCP secured three. This industrial region, with a significant migrant population, was effectively mobilised by the BJP.
Drought-hit Marathwada also saw the BJP take the lead, securing 19 out of 46 seats. Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena secured 12 seats, and Ajit Pawar’s NCP secured eight. Mahayuti alliance’s strategies, focusing on reservation, water scarcity, and development, resonated with voters during the elections.
In Western Maharashtra, a region traditionally dominated by the NCP due to its control over the cooperative sector, the BJP-led alliance made remarkable inroads, securing 24 out of 58 seats. Shinde’s Shiv Sena won seven seats, and the NCP (Ajit Pawar) on 11 seats. This region, which also boasts a strong sugar industry and IT sector, showed signs of NDA’s expanding influence.
In Northern Maharashtra, the BJP secured 20 out of 47 seats, followed by Shiv Sena (Shinde) with 11 and the NCP (Ajit) with 12. The BJP’s outreach to smaller OBC communities, like Teli and Kunbi, helped consolidate its voter base in this agricultural hub.
Key factors behind NDA’s resurgence
One of the major factors that worked in the NDA’s favour was the “Mazi Ladki Bai” scheme launched by the Shinde government. It provided Rs 1,500 to women from low-income families on a monthly basis. The initiative, inspired by a similar programme in Madhya Pradesh, garnered widespread support from women voters. The scheme reached 2.34 crore women who received Rs 7,500 over a period of five months which turned decisive for the party. Rs 17,000 crore were directly to women beneficiaries under the scheme.
The second and most significant factor was the RSS’s involvement in the election campaign. The RSS is, without a doubt, the backbone of the BJP’s campaigning strategies. Following the Lok Sabha’s questionable performance and reports of strained ties between the RSS and the BJP during the General Elections, it was clear that the two had to come together if the BJP wanted to return to power with a strong upper hand. The RSS reportedly mobilised over 60,000 workers, organised 12,000 meetings across Maharashtra, and ensured the NDA’s promises and agenda reached every voter. The RSS ensured BJP voters turned out at the booths, specifically in constituencies where the BJP’s victory was uncertain.
The opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) alliance, comprising Congress, Sharad Pawar-led NCP, and Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena, failed to create a cohesive narrative. Their focus on issues like constitutional rights and alleged betrayals did not resonate with voters. Instead, the Mahayuti alliance succeeded in steering the conversation towards development and inclusiveness.
Themes like “Ek Hai Toh Safe Hain” and “Vote Jihad” also played a vital role in the state assembly elections. The MVA’s success in the Lok Sabha elections was attributed to Muslim voter consolidation, as highlighted by BJP leaders. The narrative worked well, especially with slogans like “Batenge to kitenge” given by the Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh, Yogi Adityanath.
Along similar lines, the Deputy Chief Minister of Maharashtra, Devendra Fadnavis, gave the slogan “Ek hain to safe hain, Modi hai to mumkin hai.” BJP leader Kirit Somaiya worked extensively on the “Vote Jihad” campaign and called the victory in the state a “victory of Dharma Yuddha over Vote Jihad.”
Notably, the Maratha reservation protests contributed to the defeat of the Mahayuti alliance in 12 seats during the Lok Sabha elections. Protest leaders like Manoj Jarange-Patil called for voting against the Mahayuti alliance even during assembly elections. However, the BJP successfully consolidated non-Maratha Hindu voters from the Mali, Dhangar, and Vanjari communities.
Lastly, voter turnout increased from 61.1% in 2019 to 66% in this election. This higher turnout, facilitated by the BJP’s ground-level mobilisation, played a crucial role in its success. The BJP closed the narrow 1.5% vote share gap seen during the Lok Sabha elections and secured significant victories across regions. It must be noted that whenever there is a higher turnout of voters, it favours the BJP. This clearly indicates that Hindu voters came out in large numbers and voted for the party of their choice.
The Maharashtra Assembly elections highlight the BJP’s strategic adaptability and ability to mobilise diverse voter groups. By addressing grassroots concerns, introducing impactful welfare schemes, and leveraging the RSS’s organisational strength, the BJP emerged as a dominant force, marking a significant political comeback in Maharashtra.
