Jan Ki Baat has released the results of its latest survey ahead of the crucial Tripura elections, scheduled to be held in the state on 16 February 2023 to elect 60 members of the Tripura Legislative Assembly. According to the opinion poll, the BJP, which ended 25 years of Left rule in 2018, would retain control of the state.
प्रदीप भंडारी के साथ देखें त्रिपुरा चुनाव का ओपिनियन पोलhttps://t.co/B3DqoLTSVV @pradip103#TripuraElections2023 #TripuraPollWithPradeep
— Jan Ki Baat (@jankibaat1) February 13, 2023
In its survey, which sampled 10,000 people, across all districts, the polling agency predicted a comfortable return for the Manik Saha-led Bharatiya Janata Party government in the state of Tripura. The survey predicts BJP to win between 30-35 seats in the upcoming Assembly polls while CPI(M) together with its ally Congress, which drew a blank in 2018, could get 13-16 seats, almost half of what has been predicted for the ruling party.
The Tipraha Indigenous Progressive Regional Alliance (also called Tipra Motha), meanwhile, might bag 13-11 sets as per the poll survey. It is worth mentioning that the Tipra Motha has been advocating for Greater Tipraland, which would see the Tripura Tribal Areas Autonomous District Council and some adjacent areas become a separate state from Tripura.
If we analyze the percentage of the vote share of BJP and other parties, based on the aforementioned predicted number of seats, Jan Ki Baat predicts a vote share of 39-42 percent for the incumbent BJP government in the state. The CPI(M) and Congress alliance is expected to receive 38-41 percent. The Tipra Motha, led by Pradyot Debbarma is expected to receive 16-21% while other parties 1-2%.
Broadly, breaking down the vote share district-wise, the survey predicts that BJP will bag 3 out of 6 seats in the North Tripura district. Similarly, it predicts BJP to bag 4 out of 9 seats in the Siphaijala district, 4 out of 7 in the South Tripura district, 3 out of 6 seats in the Dhalak district, 2 0f the 5 seats in the Uninakoti district, 4 out of 6 seats in the Khowa district, 10 out of 14 seats in the West Tripura district and 3 out of 7 seats in the Gomati district.
Further predicting the vote share based on demography, the poll predicts that 60% of Bengali Hindus favor BJP coming to power. 70% of Bengali Muslims in the state, however, are seen backing the CPI(M)-Congress alliance.
In terms of tribal vote share, Tipra Motha seems to be bagging the maximum share. The Debarma tribe in the state, as indicated in the poll, has extended its support for the Tipra Motha, with the party bagging 75% of their votes. Meanwhile, 55% of the Tripuri tribe is seen to be backing the incumbent BJP government in the state.
Jan Ki Baat opinion poll had predicted the return of BJP in Tripura in 2018
In 2018, the NewsX Jan ki Baat opinion poll suggested that NDA may get 35-45 seats in the final tally. The main opposition, which is the CPI(M), was expected to get 14-23 seats in the 60-seat assembly. The state was considered a red bastion until 2018. As predicted, by winning 44 out of 60 seats, the BJP subsequently formed the government with Biplab Kumar Deb as the Chief Minister. The Communist Party of India (Marxist) only got 16 seats and Congress drew a blank.
