All three of Karnataka’s major political parties—BJP, Congress, and JD(S)—are busy making their final pitches as the high-stakes election campaign comes to an end on Monday (May 8), two days before the state goes to poll on May 10, 2023. While all the parties are putting their best foot forward to garner the attention of the voters, several opinion polls for the Karnataka Assembly elections have emerged predicting varied results.
While some have predicted a resounding victory for the incumbent BJP, others have projected Congress to have an advantage over its competing parties in the southern state.
The Karnataka Assembly has 224 members and a tally of 113 is required to form a simple majority government.
| Name of the survey | BJP | Congress | JD(S) | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zee-Matrize | 103-118 | 82-97 | 28-33 | 1 to 4 |
| Karnataka TV | 105-110 | 80-85 | 34-38 | 3 to 7 |
| Suvarna News-Jan Ki Baat | 100-114 | 86-98 | 20-26 | 3 to 7 |
| NewsFirst-Matrize | 96-106 | 84-94 | 29-34 | 2 to 7 |
| Tv9 Kannada | 103-115 | 79-91 | 26-36 | 1 to 3 |
| India TV-CNX | 85 | 105 | 32 | 2 |
| ABP- CVoter | 73-85 | 110-122 | 21-29 | 2 to 6 |
| C Daily Tracker | 46 | 147 | 28 | 3 |
| Public TV’s Mood | 85-95 | 98-108 | 28-33 | |
| Vistara News | 88-93 | 84-90 | 23-26 | |
| South First-People’s Pulse | 90-100 | 95-105 | 25-30 |
Zee-Matrize Opinion poll
Zee TV announced the results of its opinion poll conducted in association with an organization called Matrize. According to the survey, the incumbent BJP will once again form the government in Karnataka, by comfortably crossing the clear majority.
Karnataka Opinion Poll-2023 : मोदी ने कर दिया बड़ा खेल, ओपिनियन पोल ने चौंकाया! https://t.co/g3BZd3F7Hg#karnatakaelection2023 #AssemblyElection2023 #matrizenewswithzeenews pic.twitter.com/BlKrUtRPmc
— Matrize News Communications Pvt. Ltd (@Matrize_NC) May 8, 2023
As announced in this survey, the possible seats for the parties out of a total of 224 seats are as follows:
- Bhartiya Janata Party: 103-118
- Indian National Congress: 82-97
- JD(S): 28-33
- Others: 1-4
Thus, the survey is predicting a comfortable victory for BJP with 103-118 seats in the 224-member house. Notably, in the 2018 Assembly elections, the BJP won 104 of the 224 legislative seats in Karnataka, a significant increase of 64 seats over the previous polls.
Karnataka TV opinion poll
A regional Kannada channel Karnataka TV also announced the results of its final survey in which it predicted the BJP to emerge as the single largest party in the upcoming Assembly polls.
As announced in this survey, the potential seats for various parties are as follows:
- Bhartiya Janata Party: 105-110
- Indian National Congress: 80-85
- JD(S): 34-38
- Others: 3-7
Suvarna News-Jan Ki Baat opinion poll
Ahead of the Karnataka assembly elections 2023, the second and final pre-poll survey conducted by leading Kannada news channel Suvarna News 24×7 and Jan Ki Baat has predicted that the ruling BJP will emerge as the single largest party and might even cross the halfway mark in the upcoming Karnataka Assembly Elections. The opinion poll was based on a survey of over 30000 respondents across various districts of the state.
As announced in this survey, the potential seats for various parties are as follows:
- Bhartiya Janata Party: 100-114
- Indian National Congress: 86-98
- JD(S): 20-26
- Others: 3-7
The pre-poll however placed Congress slightly ahead of BJP in terms of vote share. The potential vote share of each political party in this survey is as follows:
- Bhartiya Janata Party: 38-40.5%
- Indian National Congress: 38.5-41.5%
- JD(S): 14-16.5%
- Others: 4-7%
NewsFirst-Matrize survey
NewsFirst conducted a survey along with Matrize which also predicted that the BJP would emerge as the single largest party but might remain slightly below the halfway mark in the upcoming Karnataka Assembly elections.
As announced in this survey, the potential seats for various parties are as follows:
- Bhartiya Janata Party: 96-106
- Indian National Congress: 84-94
- JD(S): 29-34
- Others: 2-7
News 1st Matrize Karnataka Opinion Poll
— News Arena India (@NewsArenaIndia) April 25, 2023
BJP : 96-106
INC : 84-94
JDS : 29-34
OTH : 2-7
Congress will be around 100. BJP 95 & JDS around 28.
Tv9 Kannada opinion poll
The results of the Tv9 Kannada opinion poll that came out in the first week of May showed BJP emerging as the single largest party in the upcoming polls.
As announced in this survey, the potential seats for various parties are as follows:
- Bhartiya Janata Party: 103-115
- Indian National Congress: 79-91
- JD(S): 26-36
- Others: 1-3
The potential vote share of each political party in this survey is as follows:
- Bhartiya Janata Party: 48%
- Indian National Congress: 33%
- JD(S): 14%
- Others: 5%
India TV-CNX opinion poll
India TV announced the final results of the survey and opinion poll conducted in association with an organization called CNX. The survey shows that the Congress party may emerge as the single largest party in the Karnataka assembly elections, but may fall eight seats short of a clear majority.
As announced in this survey, the potential seats for various parties are as follows:
- Bhartiya Janata Party: 85
- Indian National Congress: 105
- JD(S): 32
- Others: 2
ABP- CVoter survey
As announced in this survey, the potential seats for various parties are as follows:
- Bhartiya Janata Party: 73-85
- Indian National Congress: 110-122
- JD(S): 21-29
- Others: 2-6
C Daily Tracker survey
The C Daily Tracker released its survey results on April 30, predicting Congress a clear edge in the upcoming polls in Karnataka.
As announced in this survey, the potential seats for various parties are as follows:
- Bhartiya Janata Party: 46
- Indian National Congress: 147
- JD(S): 28
- Others: 3
The potential vote share for various parties is as follows:
- Bhartiya Janata Party: 30.6%
- Indian National Congress: 44.4%
- JD(S): 18%
- Others: 7%
‘Mood of Karnataka’ by Public TV
Public TV’s Mood in Karnataka also gave Congress the edge in the upcoming poll. According to the survey, Congress may, however, not secure a clear majority in the state polls.
As announced in this survey, the potential seats for various parties are as follows:
- Bhartiya Janata Party: 85-95
- Indian National Congress: 98-108
- JD(S): 28-33
A hung mandate is shown by Vistara News as it gave 88-93 seats to BJP, 84-90 to Congress, and 23-26 to JD(S). According to the survey, there are 27–30 seats where the outcome is uncertain.
The pre-election survey by South First-People’s Pulse gave Congress 98 seats, with a range of 95 to 105 seats. The BJP is predicted to win 92 seats (90-100 seat range) and the JD(S) 27 seats (25-30 seat range).
Karnataka Assembly Elections
The Legislative Assembly elections are scheduled to be held in Karnataka on May 10 2023 to elect all 224 members of the Karnataka Legislative Assembly. The results will be declared on May 13 2023.
