Monday, November 18, 2024
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Congress party now doing international mahamilawat with Pakistan for political benefits: PM Modi

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has issued a clear warning to Pakistan that India will take strict action if it continues terror activities against India. Speaking at a public rally in Dhar in Madhya Pradesh, Modi said that India has announced at the top of its voice that it has warned terrorists and supporters of terrorism that now they have no other way other than correcting themselves, and even if they don’t mend their ways, they have been told what will happen to them, what will be done to them. He was attending the Vijay Sankalp rally of BJP in Madhya Pradesh.


PM Modi said that while the entire world is saying that what India has done is right, it is the misfortune of this country that some people here do not agree with that. Targeting the Congress party for its comments after the Pulwama terror attack, he said that the party that ruled for the longest period is raising questions on the abilities of our defence forces. In this, one leader from Madhya Pradesh is seen very ahead. Modi was referring to Congress demanding proofs of the Balakot airstrike done by IAF, and comments of former MP CM Digvijay Singh on the issue. Talking about Digvijay Singh terming the horrific Pulwama terror attack as an accident today morning, the prime minister said that this is the mentality of Congress leaders. To save the terrorists, to take their side, Congress is now calling the terror attack an accident, he said.


https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.jsHe said that this is the special commander of the ‘naamdar’ family, who is now looking like a peace messenger encouraging terrorism. This is the same person who thought that the world’s biggest terrorist Osama Bin Laden was a messenger of peace. This person also had given a clean chit to Pakistan in Mumbai terror attack and wanted to mislead the course of the investigation, Modi attacked Digvijay Singh referring to his attempts to pin the blame of the 26/11 terror attacks on RSS.

Modi also took a dig at former Congress president Sonia Gandhi, saying that don’t forget, one courtier of the royal family had informed the entire world that when the terrorists were killed in Batla House encounter in Delhi, the person running the government through remote control could not stop tears. How can we expect that such a Congress party will finish terrorism, Modi asked. Due to such soft approach towards terrorism, earlier terrorists were not given a fitting response after terror attacks, he said.

PM Modi also said that India did the air strike on Pakistan, but some people in India are feeling sad for the same. Referring to Pakistan using comments of Congress party leaders, he said those who do maha‑milawat in India are indulging in international maha‑milawat. They are partnering with Pakistan for political purposes. These people attack Modi, and Pakistan claps on that. While papers here are full of their comments, on TV channels there also only faces of these people are only seen, Modi said.

Narendra Modi said that after the airstrike on Jaish camps, when Pakistan had become silent, got isolated in the entire world, these people came forward to save the prestige of Pakitan. Some people started asking for proof, some started asking the number of dead bodies, while some even started to project Pakistan as angel of peace. When the entire country has become one on this decisive fight against terrorism, some people are trying to weaken it by misleading people, Modi added.

Prime Minister Modi also talked about various development and welfare measures undertaken by his government.

We are at war and it will be won the day we recognise and expose the ‘chronic deserters’ of India

“A battle lost or won is easily described, understood, and appreciated, but the moral growth of a great nation requires reflection, as well as observation, to appreciate it” – Frederick Douglass

Matru Prem and Rashtra Prem are emotions that mirror each other. Isn’t it natural to unconditional love the forces that created you from nothing to at least something? Everything else is adulterated except the infant’s unconditional love for his parents.

Patriotism is the same feeling, it’s unadulterated, joyful and inspiring. It’s an empowering association with one’s national identity.

India is intrinsically patriotic. One has always seen the spontaneous outpouring of unbridled love for the nation, be it a cricket victory or war. For most, patriotism is an exhilarating feeling until one comes across a section of people I call “Chronic Deserters”.

So who are these Chronic Deserters?

Are these turncoats or just true-blood traitors? Perhaps, they are worse. They stand for nothing except hate. Hate for India’s glorious culture, vibrant customs and diverse traditions. They call Lord Ram a misogynist. Krishna, a mere mortal. The Ramayana and Mahabharata, fictional folklores. They make fun of our gods, call us ‘cow piss drinkers’, much like the terrorist who rammed his explosives-laden car into a CRPF convoy in Pulwama.

They have invaded our society. Manipulated our history books. Branded us as brainless, brown slaves. Made us pity ourselves. But it all changed in 2014 when there was a Hindu resurgence.

As a society, we fought back and broke the shackles of slavery. We started talking about our real heroes. As kids, we were told India is only about Mughals and the Gandhi Nehru dynasty. Is this actually possible?

Can a 10,000 old civilisation lack heroes? Then what is this about? This is the oldest rule of colonialism. Destroy the King, Burn the Kingdom, destroy the culture, ridicule the customs and eventually give the subject a chronic inferiority complex. A feeling of a society trapped in a black hole, a feeling of hopelessness.

Is this new? Not by a long shot. This is the basic component of colonialism. Colonialism doesn’t work on physical prowess and warfare alone. Psychological warfare trumps physical warfare.

Lack of motivation, feeling of hopelessness, pity and self-loathing are perhaps emotions that can even destroy the world’s best armies. The United States of America suffering a bitter thrashing at the hands of Vietnam was a perfect case in point.

These chronic deserters are not new in the Indian context

The lust for power and cultural hatred have produced legendary traitors like Jaichand and Mir Jafar.

These short-sighted people have compromised the security and safety of the nation for immediate gratification.

These chronic deserters or pseudo-liberals in common parlance have some quintessential traits. They repeat the same flawed logic over and over again. Their tropes are almost set in stone with the hope, that repetition would obfuscate their absurdity. Some of them are:

1) Terrorism has no religion but rape has a religion. (Inspite of India having lower rape percentile numbers)

2) Eating beef is a litmus test for modernism.

3) The Indian army is an aggressor in Kashmir and Kashmir should get plebiscite.

4) Pakistan is a land of saints. A peaceful country.

5) India is a land of intolerance irrespective of the fastest increase in the minority population in the world.

6) There are Hindu terrorists irrespective of no such incidents.

7) Triple talaq is liberation for Muslim women, the problem lies with Sati irrespective of its abolition 100 years back.

8) Sabarimala preaches oppression of women, Triple talaq doesn’t.

9) Bursting crackers in Diwali is a pollution menace but doing it a new year reduces pollution.

10) Navratri increases noise pollution but everything else is music to the ears.

This hypocrisy is staggering and hardly amusing. This cabal has geniuses: they spot seamen’s in balloons and call it Hindu pride, write articles claiming Ramayan happened in Afghanistan, call Imran Khan (fondly known as Taliban Khan to the rest of the non-delusional world) a statesman inspite of supporting World’s most dreaded terrorists, accept doles for writing pro psephological articles but talk about honesty and integrity, give out the survivors details during terrorism operations, talk about national security, abuse people on social media daily and cry victim, whining about trolls.

Our fault lies in not recognising their deceitfulness. These people use Guerrilla warfare to destabilise us, discourage us. It’s time to worry because they are back. They are back to demoralise us and they are back to demotivate us. These two faced people will try everything in the book to make us believe that we are losing the war. Don’t believe in their propaganda, identify them and expose them.

It’s time to unite and it’s time to destroy the enemy. While the Army, Navy and Airforce do so regularly on the border and they stand a post so you and I can sleep in peace, the question that we must ask ourselves is whether we are willing to identify these chronic deserters and make them irrelevant? Will we remember that a war is won on more on psychological strength than physical strength.

We will win the war the day we expose these Chronic Deserters.

Karnataka: In viral video, Congress leader gives call for PM Narendra Modi’s assassination

Displaying another low point in India’s politics, Belur Gopalakrishna, a senior Karnataka Congress leader has shockingly called for the assassination of Prime Minister Modi.

According to the local reports, in a month old incident, Belur Gopalakrishna was speaking at a party event, where he had made statements asking BJP supporters to assassinate Prime Minister Narendra Modi. A video of Gopalakrishna’s speech was posted by the Karnataka BJP on its official Twitter handle.


“Today, those people who praise Nathuram Ghodse for assassinating Mahatma Gandhi. I feel that such people should not be in this country. If they try to murder the democracy, I will challenge them to shoot Narendra Modi and no one else needs to be killed in the country anymore,” said Gopalakrishna.

As per reports, Gopalkrishna was addressing a party event on February 4 to condemn a so-called Hindu group that had enacted the assassination of Gandhi.

Meanwhile, the opposition party in the state, BJP has accused the Congress leader of trying to instigate people for the assassination of the PM.

The Karnataka BJP also questioned Congress President Rahul Gandhi’s dubiousness regarding his politics of hate. “Well, Rahul Gandhi, we remember you saying you don’t endorse hate politics but now that your own party leader has openly called for the assassination of democratically elected PM of this Nation would you act on him? If you don’t act it clearly means you endorse his words,” tweeted Karnataka BJP.

However, Gopalakrishna has claimed that he had made these comments a month ago and questioned the BJP why is it making an issue out of it now.

IAF’s Su 30MKI combat aircraft to be equipped with Spice-2000 bombs used for the airstrikes in Balakot

The Indian Air Force’s Sukhoi-Su 30MKI combat aircraft will be equipped with Israeli Spice-2000 bombs which were used for the airstrikes inside Pakistan late last month. The airstrikes had eliminated targets of the terrorist group Jaish-e-Muhammad.

“At the moment, the only aircraft which is capable of delivering the bombs on enemy targets is the Mirage 2000. But now the Air Force is putting them on the Su-30s as well to further enhance their firepower,” government sources were quoted by ANI.

According to the sources, the Su-30MKI has already carried out trials where they launched the Spice-2000 bombs on ground targets. “After a few more trials, the Su-30 fleet would be equipped with these bombs which rely on coordinates and satellite pictures of the target to home in and destroy the intended targets,” the sources are reported to have said. It is believed that once the integration is successful, it will be a great force multiplier for the IAF.

As we had reported earlier, The Mirage 2000s used in the airstrikes carried the Spice ‘smart bombs’ made by Israel’s Rafael Advanced Defence Systems. Each Spice-2000 is approximately a 1000 KG air to ground bomb that can be launched from a distance of 100 km. Israel had used these same bombs in Syria.

The Spice bombs use a Digital Scene Matching Area Correlator (DSMAC) technology. The technology enables it to match the target as it zooms in, with pre-fed images apart from the GPS coordinates. They also come with anti-GPS jammer, which means the enemy cannot manipulate its homing device.

Terrorists are getting trained to attack India through the sea route: Navy Chief Admiral Sunil Lanba

Chief of the Naval Staff Admiral Sunil Lanba, while addressing Indo-Pacific Regional dialogue, said that terrorists are getting trained to execute operations in the country, including through the route of the sea.

“We have reports of terrorists being trained to carry out operations in various modus operandi including through the medium of the sea,” Admiral Sunil Lanba said.

India in past also has faced many sea-borne terrorist attacks like the 26/11 Mumbai attack, in which terrorists had used the sea-route to enter the city. Since then, India has upgraded its coastal security to prevent future attacks originating through sea route.

India has a long coastline, and it shares the Arabian Sea coast with Pakistan. Sea route has been used to bring weapons and explosives to the country, and before that in smuggling operations for a long time.

Minister of state in the Home Ministry Hansraj Ahir also had said in parliament, in the month of January, that Pakistan-based terrorist groups are getting trained for underwater strike capabilities or “Samudri Jihad”, to enter India by sea.

On the issue of terrorism, Navy Chief said that Indo-Pacific region, in recent years, has faced many acts of horror and only a few countries have been spared.

“Global nature which terrorism has acquired in recent times has further enhanced the scope of this threat.” He added. He also felt that it is imperative for the world to stand against terrorism, and help in containing it and eliminating it.

Talking about the ghastly Pulwama terrorist attack which took lives of more than 40 CRPF jawans last month, Navy Chief Lanba said that India faces a far more dangerous version of state-sponsored terrorism. “This violence was perpetrated by extremists, aided by a state which seeks to destabilise India”, he said about the Pulwama attack, without naming Pakistan. He also said that terrorist groups are evolving in the world at a very fast pace, but he added that India is also relentlessly thwarting their operations.

India points out how Pakistan FM exposed himself on Masood Azhar, and how Azhar is still getting support

MEA sources have today confirmed that India will continue its fight against terrorism even though Pakistan is attempting to create the narrative of “India trying to escalate” tensions, as this is a fight against terrorism and not an India-Pakistan conflict.

On Masood Azhar: “It is interesting that Pakistan has not denied Azhar is the JeM chief”

MEA sources said that 2 Pakistan ministers have given two interviews, one to CNN and the other to BBC, in both, some noteworthy points have emerged. One is that they have accepted that Masood Azhar is in Pakistan and that someone in the position of authority is in touch with him. This proves that Pakistan authorities are not only aware of Masood Azhar’s whereabouts but are also regularly in touch with him. There were even suggestions that he has ‘retired’ and is a preacher/religious teacher. The source said that in this interview it is important to note that there was no denial that Masood is JEM chief and that Pakistan’s rhetoric on how it is acting on terror is old wine in a new bottle.

The MEA source said, “stern action will be taken and firm decisions will be made by this Govt”. This was not only said in reference to Masood Azhar but also the fact that Pakistan has not taken any demonstrable action against terror emanating from its soil.

On Masood Azhar’s reported illness: ‘We take this news with a pinch of salt”

The MEA source said that India takes such reports with a pinch of salt as earlier too we had seen similar reports on Mullah Omar and Osama Bin Laden as well. Our effort is to bring Masood Azhar to book.

Diplomatic efforts by India to isolate Pakistan: Getting Masood Azhar designated by UNSC as a global terrorist, and FATF monitoring

The MEA source said that Pakistan is being isolated globally. It was said that the action on the JEM training camp in Balakot is over and that through these strikes deep inside Pakistan territory, India has demonstrated the capacity and will to act against terrorism. The efforts to the international community are that the world has heard the conjectures by Pakistan before and it is now time we expect to see ‘naya action’ on the ground if this is ‘Naya Pakistan’ and ‘nayi soch’.

The source said that though Pakistan has asserted several times that they are acting against JuD, they are only on the watchlist, not on the banned list hence at the moment, the objective of Pakistan seems to be to pretend like they are taking steps. The source said that India’s focus is now to reach out to members of the security council to explain why the UN security council should Masood Azhar in the list of global terrorists.

The source also said that the focus is on documenting what steps Pakistan is taking and sharing the relevant findings with the members of FATF.

On OIC: “Pakistan stands isolated in its own backyard”

The MEA source said that invitation to India by UAE for OIC was truly a historic one as India was invited to address inaugural plenary after 50 years. Pakistan tried best to scuttle this invite to India till last minute but the UAE backed by Saudi remained steadfast that invite remains and will not be withdrawn. UAE leadership reiterated they remained committed to their invite to India for OIC. Every Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) member country attended the plenary (where EAM Sushma Swaraj was the guest of honour) except Pakistan, so Pakistan stands isolated in what it calls its own backyard.

On the lies of Pakistan: “Pakistan trying to create fear psychosis, footage of submarine old, all Sukhois accounted for”

On the release of Wing Commander Abhinandan, the MEA source said that India was able to build enough pressure for Pakistan to release him. In fact, India had clarified loud and clear and that Abhinandan was not a bargaining chip and that was non-negotiable.

The source said that all Sukhoi’s that India has have been accounted for and Pakistan saying that it shot one of them down is an utter lie. He said that Pakistan is deluded and hence it is creating a fear-psychosis that India might do something. If indeed they claim to have shot down our Sukhoi, they should show the wreckage.

On the Submarine footage that has been doing the rounds where Pakistan has claimed that India has mobilised its navy, the source said that the footage was an old one and the only objective of Pakistan was to create fear.


The source also confirmed that Pakistan has refused to take its own media to the Balakot area where India conducted the airstrikes. The government of Pakistan is extremely concerned that if media begins to report the facts, its own ppl will ask questions like where PAF was when India struck? Where is the second plane and body of Sukhoi) 3 what is proof you are not escalating war?

The source also said that Pakistan media should ask its own government where was the missile that India found parked if not an F16?

He said that there is a solid support to India from the international community. Any statement which Pakistan has issued regarding their conversation with any other country and the statement issued by that country about their conversation with Pakistan when analysed will reveal who is lying.

India stands firm: “We will reject any mediation, this is a war on terrorism, not India-Pakistan conflict”

Interestingly, India has clarified that we are not looking for mediation and that we have not asked anyone to mediate. Pakistan is reaching out to all countries to mediate, and no one is paying any heed to Pakistan. In fact, the source also confirmed that India is looking at this as a war on terror and not an India-Pakistan conflict. They also said that all attempts to mediate will be rejected.

Post the Pulwama terror attack, India started its relentless pursuit of neutralising the threat of terrorism being used as a policy tool by Pakistan. Soon after the terrorist attack, India conducted airstrikes deep inside Pakistan in the Balakot region, neutralising Jaish-e-Mohammad terror camps. Since then, Pakistan has been indulging in fierce psy-ops by spreading fake news and even hailing PM Imran ‘Taliban’ Khan as a peace dove when he was only following the Geneva Convention by releasing Wing Commander Abhinandan.

AMUSU leaders get targeted on social media for organising ‘pro-Hindu’ event

In an interesting development, some members of the Aligarh Muslim University had organised a ‘Prasad distribution’ event for Kanwariyas on the occasion of Mahashivaratri.

AMU Student Union president Salman Imtiaz and secretary Huzaifa Amir were there leading the event. The initiative was hailed by many on social media. The event was organised in front of the AK Tibbiya college in the university.


However, as per reports, after the event, both Imtiaz and Amir are being heavily criticised by some other student union leaders and their supporters for organising a ‘pro-Hindu’ event.

As per a report in Amar Ujala, Hamza Sufiyan, the vice president of the AMUSU has alleged that he was not informed about the event and the banner of the AMUSU should not be used for events being conducted in a ‘personal capacity.’ Many other students have also reportedly posted derogatory comments mocking the student leaders for organising a ‘Hindu’ event.

Edited images of Imtiyaz and Amir were also circulated depicting them as Kanwar Yatris.

Edited picture of AMU president and secretary which went viral on social media, Image credit: Amar Ujala

It is notable here that very recently, while addressing the students of the university Salman Imtiaz had asked students to leave class and join a protest demanding the rustication of student leader Ajay Singh who was the first Non-Muslim student to contest for the post of president in 2017.

While addressing the students, Salman Imtiaz, brandishing pro-Islamist rhetorics had tried to instigate students by saying, “else how will you answer Allah”.


Meanwhile, the Aligarh Muslim University which has always been in news for the wrong reasons from the row on hanging Jinnah’s portrait to supporting terrorism was lately in the limelight for an objectionable social media post on the Pulwama Terror Attack by one of its Kashmiri students named, Basim Hilal, who was, however, later suspended by the university.

Last month, on February 12, an FIR under the clause of IPC section 124A pertaining to sedition had been lodged against the 14 Aligarh Muslim University students for raising pro-Pakistan slogans. Imtiyaz was also named in that FIR. The police had also pressed charges of vandalism and hurting the religious sentiments of people against these AMU hoodlums.

From calling for protests and violence in the name of Allah to organising events to help devotees on Shivaratri, the gesture by Imtiyaz and others is being hailed by many as a positive development.


Last month, a complaint had been lodged against the AMU students under Section 307 and Section 153 after the harassed Republic TV crew approached police for an incident that occurred a day before the previous incident of violence and vandalism. Several students of Aligarh Muslim University had intimidated Republic TV crew including a female journalist who was present on the university campus.

Fact Check: Did India lie about shooting down Pakistani F-16 fighter jet?

Pakistan has been denying India’s claim that Indian Air Force bombed terror camps in Pakistan on 26th February, and one F-16 jet of Pakistan was shot down by Wing Commander Abhinandan Varthaman before his MiG-21 was shot down inside Pakistan and he was captured. Indian opposition parties have chosen to believe the Pakistani version instead of what is said by Indian defence forces, and have been demanding proof of the strike from the government.

Joining the doubters, now journalist Saikat Datta has written an article claiming that there is no proof that India had shot down the Pakistan Air Force’s American fighter jet. In an article published on Asia Times, Datta uses social media claims and arguments made by Pakistani side to prove that no F-16 jet was shot down by Indian Air Force.

By making this claim, the author is levelling a very serious charge on the Indian defence forces of lying. The claim of F-16 being shot down was not made in a political rally, it was informed by the spokesperson of mthe inistry of external affairs. He had said that the Pakistani aircraft falling down on Pakistani side was seen by ground forces in India. After that, the same claim was reiterated in a joint conference of the three Armed Forces.

Pakistan even denied the use of F-16 in the attempt to bomb Indian military bases, but that has been already proven to be a lie after the discovery of missile fragments fired from F-16 jets. Datta’s article itself quotes a Pakistani official confirming the use of F-16 jets by Pakistan. In that scenario, the Pakistani claim that F-16 jet was not hit remains a doubt and their version can’t be taken seriously as truth.

One argument used in the article to prove that F-16 was not hit is the fact that there is no Wing Commander Shahaz-ud-Din in PAF who was rumoured to have died while flying the F-16. Doing a probe, Asia Times has found that there is no such pilot in Pakistan Air Force, hence the claim of F-16 being shot down is false, he writes.

But the fact is, govt of India or IAF never released any name of the pilot who was flying the F-16. It came from so-called defence expert Praveen Swami, and quickly it spread on Social Media. Swamy has a history of concocting stories on defence matters, therefore to use a claim made by him to prove government wrong is too much. Is there really a Pakistan Air Force pilot with that name, or someone created it out of thin air, that remains a matter of investigation, but that is no way a prove that F-16 was not shot down. Proving some random social media rumour as wrong is not the same as proving the main claim of government wrong.

Indian forces have so far provided two evidences about the Pakistani F-16. First, a part of wreckage claimed to be from MiG-21 was proved to be from F-16 engine, based on photographs of the wreckage published by Pakistan. Second, fragments of AIM-120 AMRAAM missile was found on Indian soil after Pakistan’s attempt to bomb Indian military bases, and this missile can be carried only by the F-16.

Moreover, there are several evidences that two fighter jets were hit on that day, not just the Indian MiG-21. Initially, Pakistan government itself had claimed that they had shot down two Indian fighter jets and captured two Indian pilots, which points to the strong possibility that Pakistani ground forces saw two jets falling and two parachutes coming down, and due to that, the Pakistani authorities had assumed both to be Indian jets.

The initial reports publishing the photos of the wreckages of the planes states that the photos belong to two aircraft that fell inside Pakistan. While MiG-21 was misidentified as MiG-27 in early reports, the other one was not identified, possibly because F-16 was broken into pieces after hit by the R-73 missile fired by Wing Commander Abhinandan.

The moment of pilots descending using parachutes after ejecting from their destroyed jets was video recorded by people in Pakistan on their phones. In the videos shared on Youtube, it can be heard that people recording the incident are talking about two parachutes coming down. Close examination of the video embedded below also show two parachutes coming down, both at different distances from the camera.

Here is another video shot from a different place, and here also two pilots descending with parachutes can be seen. People are talking about two pilots in this video also.

These videos shot by Pakistani citizens clearly show that two pilots had come down after ejecting from their aircrafts on that day. The MiG-21 Bison used by IAF is a single seater aircraft, and now it is known that only one Indian pilot had landed in Pakistan who was captured by the Pakistani military. This leaves only one possibility, that the other pilot seen in the videos has to be from the Pakistani Air Force.

The Asia Times article also talks absence about audio, video and electronic evidence of the F-16 being engaged by the MiG-21. But the fact is, it has already been reported that Abhinandan had sent the audio message “R-73 is selected” seconds before he was shot down, indicating that he was using the Vympel R-73 air to air missile to shoot down an enemy aircraft. If he had no target in sight and locked by the targeting system of the MiG-21, there was no reason for him to fire a missile on Pakistani airspace.

The event of firing the missile will be recorded by on board computers of the MiG-21, but it is with Pakistanis now, so that data can’t be obtained. The article talks about providing other electronic data as proof, like data from the Airborne Early Warning System aircraft and Radar systems, but such kind of data is highly confidential in nature and the security forces may not want to disclose such data to satisfy few who do not believe the government. Such data may give a glimpse of abilities of India’s defence systems and that may not be desirable.

Pakistan is not known to accept losses incurred by in battles. It even denied the involvement of the Pakistani military in the Kargil war for a long time. Therefore, it is natural that they will hide the loss of an aircraft in combat in their territory. But to use those claims to accuse Indian defence forces of lying is highly unacceptable. There may not be concrete proof that the F-16 was shot down till now, but similarly, there is concrete proof to claim that India is lying. But whatever evidence is present at present points towards the possibility that Pakistan did lose a fighter aircraft on that day, and most probably that aircraft was an F-16.

Modi is winning the narrative, but is that making the arithmetic harder?

The baseline of the 2019 election is quite simple :

(1) There is no doubt that BJP and Modi are by far the No. 1 choice of the country.

That’s one of the constant factors. But there is a second constant factor:

(2) No party can seriously hope to get 50% votes… or for that matter … get >50% vote in 200+ seats.

So, can Modi be defeated? Of course. Even Nehru would have lost the 1952 election if the opposition had united against him. In fact, Nehru would have lost pretty badly. In 1952, Congress had a 45% vote. A united opposition would have swept the election, with a double-digit vote share lead of 10%!

So the only “variable factor” in this election is how far the opposition is willing to go to defeat Narendra Modi.

This variable factor depends obviously on the opposition’s perception of who is winning the election. Ironically, this means that “highs” for PM Modi in some way increase the risk of him losing in 2019.

In December, the opposition was all over the place. The cocky Congress, with 3 newly won states, appeared to be on a rampage. They were reading two hung assemblies in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh as a huge positive vote for their prince Rahul Gandhi. The enthused Congress even began chasing a mirage in Uttar Pradesh, injecting Priyanka Gandhi into the campaign, thinking that this might be the India of 1975.

One might just laugh at this.

Despite the December low and perhaps because of it, BJP’s chances were going up. The party took some measures to mollify core middle class voters by raising the Income Tax exemption to 5 lakh, brought in reservation for “economically weaker sections” and a cash handout for marginal farmers.

PM Modi remains incredibly popular. Nobody thinks his government is corrupt. Most people appreciate his vision and his work on addressing core issues: such as electricity, gas and toilets for all. And the scale on which he has pulled off these quantum improvements. The only challenge was addressing a strange, almost irrational feeling of “what have I really got?” You can’t assuage these feelings by reeling off data about numbers of gas or electricity connections or roads built, etc. It comes from lingering insecurity that followed the high expectations of 2014….everyone wants to believe PM Modi is thinking about them personally.

That’s why the income tax exemption limit was so important. And so was the reservation for economically weaker sections. And the Kisan Samman Nidhi for marginal farmers. It was a reminder from Delhi that their favourite leader is thinking about them.

The opposition was mostly blind to these shifting sands. They were still on a high from December, the first time Congress had actually beaten BJP in an election since May 2013.

The BJP, meanwhile, was getting ready to sweep Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra. With Cong left out of the BSP-SP tie-up in Uttar Pradesh, the BJP was again in the hunt for 40 seats from UP. The state of Bihar was already in the bag anyway. The BJP was escalating massively in Bengal and Odisha.

Then the terrorist attack in Pulwama happened. Then the revenge air strike in Balakote. Then Abhinandan brought back within 24 hours. As Air Force Chief Dhanoa said yesterday, operations are still “ongoing”.

Modi’s face is everywhere. Nobody is even talking about the opposition. They have no narrative, nothing to tell the voter.

“Vote for Congress because PM Modi is not perfect” is not an election-winning slogan. Neither is “Vote for Congress because Pakistan PM likes us”. Nor is “Let’s go back to things as they were because the last five years fell a bit short of your highest expectations.”

I think the election is set to be announced in 4-5 days. Voting may start in a little over 30 days. No time for the opposition to create a narrative now.

The problem for PM Modi now is that a dejected opposition has gone back to working with calculators instead of people.

Today we hear that AAP and Congress are very close to striking a 3:3:1 deal in Delhi. This could easily mean 7 seats subtracted from the BJP tally. If Congress joins the alliance in Uttar Pradesh, that’s BJP down by another 20 seats.

This puts even more pressure on the BJP’s “greenfield states” like West Bengal and Odisha.  I do not believe the BJP leadership is overconfident. They have lived through 2004. Getting Jay Panda on board yesterday was a good acquisition. The man has been stalling for a long time. The fact that he finally boarded the BJP ship yesterday shows that fence sitters sense a clear pro-Modi mood.

But as the BJP’s graph rises and so does the desperation on the other side, watch out. Desperate people do desperate things. And these things sometimes do work.

The question is whether BJP’s graph is rising faster than the opposition’s desperation?

Even after four meetings, JD(S)-Congress yet to reach into agreement over seat sharing for 2019 general elections

The coordination committee of Congress and JD(S) has failed to reach an agreement on seat-sharing for 2019 Lok Sabha election even in the fourth meeting convened on Monday. The reluctance on the number of seats to be shared with each other is the main of point contention for both parties.

According to reports, the meeting was attended by former Congress Chief Minister Kumaraswamy, Former CM and coalition coordination chairman Siddaramaiah and national general secretary of JD(S) Danish Ali, along with other leaders. The meeting lasted for 45 minutes.

In the meeting, JD(S) demanded 12 seats from the coalition including Tumakuru and Chikkaballapur seat, which currently have Congress MPs. Other than this CM Kumaraswamy wants Mandya Lok Sabha seat, considered bastion by party, for his son Nikhil Kumaraswamy, as per reports, along with Hassan.

On the other hand, the Congress party does not want to give its alliance partner more than 9 seats, as JD(S) is only believed to have influence in South Karnataka districts, which have huge Vokkaliga community presence.

The deadlock is scheduled to be discussed in the next meeting, in the coming week. Subsequently, the listings of both the parties are expected to be presented to Congress President Rahul Gandhi and JD(S) supremo HD Devegowda. A meeting between both leaders is also expected.

“While we are offering nine seats to the JDS, they want 12, including some of them, won by the Congress in the 2014 LS poll.  There is also a demand within the party for both Mandya and Hassan seats. Since there is much to discuss another meeting will take place this week and all confusion sorted out.” Siddaramaiah was quoted by reports. He also assured that the seat-sharing agreement will be reached by 10th March.

This is not the first time that JD(S) and Congress are trying to maintain the coalition they had forged after the last assembly elections had thrown a hung house. In December, last year, JD(S) supremo Deve Gowda had warned Congress that, if JD(S) does not get its desired number of seats, they will consider going solo in the 2019 general elections.