In April last year, AAP supporting news blog Janta Ka Reporter (JKR) had led the entire Indian media on a wild goose chase. Based on a tweet, which was itself based on a whatsapp forward, JKR broke an “exclusive” story, without any cross verification of facts, that Aamir Khan had adopted 2 drought hit villages in India. Indian media picked up this news and relayed it all over, only to be told later, that Aamir Khan had done no such thing.
Come 2017, JKR has done this all over again, and soon enough all of Indian media may pick-up this story. JKR today claimed that Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar was seen “visibly dozing off” during the Republic Day parade in Delhi. The story was based on the following picture circulating on the social media:
One of the first people to share this picture was an AAP supporting Twitter user:
This tweet was then shared by AAP leaning journalist Ashutosh Mishra and other usual suspects. Soon JKR also picked up this image and concluded that the Defence Minister was “visibly dozing off”.
Eventually, JKR’s story reached the esteemed forums of Pakistani websites.
Thankfully for us, and unfortunately for JKR, in their article, they mentioned that this “dozing off” was seen on TV just when Lakshadweep’s tableau was passing by the dignitaries. This allowed us to dig into the source of the information.
One look at the video from this period and one can clearly see that just seconds before Parrikar lowered his gaze, he was awake and watching the parade:
He was looking at the parade and then in sudden movement lowered his gaze and appeared to close his eyes, after which the video cuts back to the parade. From a video of less than 5 seconds, where Parrikar can be seen with his eyes open as well as closed, it is actually impossible to say conclusively that he had fallen asleep. The sudden, deliberate movement of his head though would suggest he wasn’t asleep.
For those who can not see the High Definition video, here are the frames from seconds before he closed his eyes:
This is reminiscent of the time when in 2015 it was claimed that PM Modi was caught sleeping in the Parliament, based on a single screen-grab, whereas the full video showed he wasn’t asleep. In 2016, Rahul Gandhi too was similarly “caught sleeping” in the parliament. In Rahul’s case though the allegation was not based on a single image but based on a video in which he was seen with his eyes closed. The video too couldn’t be called conclusive evidence, but Congress spokespersons made a hash of defending him.
It is odd that in the day and age of social media, media houses still try to conjure news items based on a single image.
A journalist called Mihir Sharma, who has a long list of controversies to his name [1][2] today looked like adding another feather to his cap after complaining about too many Hindu festival related floats (tableaux) in the Republic Day parade.
Intriguing that so many states these days seem to send Hindu festival/celebration related floats – even Goa had two random guys in saffron
His intrigue, which was a nice attempt to hide his bigotry, ended up betraying his bigotry especially with term like “even Goa”. In the world view of Mihir Sharma, Goa should now do away with anything Hindu as it has significant Christian population.
For Sharma, people wearing saffron (Hindus in appearance) are ‘random guys’ in Goa, even though Goa still is a Hindu majority state with them forming 66% of the state’s population, at least on paper.
So not surprisingly people took exception to his comments and replied to in style:
Lt Col Rohit Agarwal (retd) showcased the Hindu communal influence in the Indian constitution to Mihir Sharma:
Shame on the govt for celebrating and showcasing Hindu festivals in the tableaux. After all, they constitute only 80% of the population https://t.co/xWUx7MkKZL
Bharat has reach a point when even #RepublicDay parade is scrutinised through secular lens by colonised intellectual to quantify saffron. https://t.co/c3niUYWMcQ
It was a bright, sunny day across the fertile plains of North India in the early winters of 2013. Narendra Modi was scheduled to address his first ever rally in the state of Jammu & Kashmir as the then PM candidate of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). The rally was aptly named ‘Lalkaar’ given that Modi was seen as the beacon of hope for hundreds of millions of people in the country, looking for an end to the organized plunder of the nation’s resources by the UPA government. About two lakh people from different parts of the state had come to attend the mammoth rally and hear Narendra Modi speak.
Around noon, Modi began his address. He spoke on a range of issues and took pains to call out the names of scores of big and small ethnic groups in the state, including the micro-minorities, demonstrating how he understood and personally related to their diverse sets of problems. Modi spoke for about 45 minutes, but not once did he bring up the name of Kashmiri Hindus. He had made a statement by omission.
About a year later, Narendra Modi, now the Prime Minister of India, was closely following the politics of J&K as the assembly elections were just around the corner. His chief strategist, Amit Shah, also the president of the party, monitored the BJP’s state campaign in the hope of attaining more than half the seats in the state legislature to enable them to form the government independently. This was a pipe-dream and to give their ‘mission 44+’ rhetoric the credibility that it sorely lacked, they banked on the displaced Kashmiri Hindus to vote for them.
When the inevitable results were out, Mr. Shah promptly placed the blame of BJP’s dismal, but totally predictable, performance in Kashmir on Kashmiri Hindus. Ironically, he failed to acknowledge that the same community had played a limited, but important, role in their decisive victory on the other side of the Banihal tunnel, with BJP getting an unprecedented 25 seats, all from Jammu.
Eventually, after much political manipulation and endless negotiations with a hitherto sworn enemy, the BJP, for the first time, formed a coalition government with PDP in the state of Jammu & Kashmir. As there was considerable opposition to what some called an ‘unholy’ alliance, the party assured its voters that they were taking this course in order to get the proverbial foot inside the door of Kashmir’s volatile political ecosystem and also, to serve the people of Jammu, whom they couldn’t afford to let down. However, it turned out that their coalition dharma prevented them from making any progress whatsoever in terms of redefining the priorities of the state politics away from the longstanding Kashmir-centric obsession.
Different governments – Same Lies
The central government’s quest for resettling Kashmiri Hindus back in the valley is as old as the community’s exile. Successive governments have tried to do their bit, given that the inconvenient fact of the violent displacement of half a million people raises fundamental questions on the very claim that India makes over Kashmir. After all, if the state cannot guarantee its peaceful citizens in a particular territory the fundamental right to life, how can it claim control over it? Sadly, the government’s push for resettling the displaced community has been consistently misplaced and insincere.
The very first chance of the reversal of what came to be euphemistically referred to as the ‘migration’ of Hindus was lost in 1990 itself when the government recalled Governor Jagmohan, the most competent and experienced administrator that the state ever had. By taking such a hasty and imprudent call, the government effectively shut out all possibilities of the timely return of the Hindus. In the years that followed, all our Prime Ministers, perhaps with the exception of PV Narasimha Rao, issued platitudes on the issue of return of Hindus and tried to engage in dialogue with groups such as Hurriyat, which comprised mostly of ex-terrorists, who by now were being called as ‘separatists’.
Atal Bihari Vajpayee played a major role in this mainstreaming of separatism in the national political discourse and much to the dismay of Kashmiri Hindus, actively popularized erroneous notions about the nature of conflict in Kashmir. His irresponsible promotion of terms such as ‘Kashmiriyat’, advertised as syncretism unique to the valley but which is, in reality, another name for Kashmiri sub-nationalism, led to a drastic change in how ordinary Indians viewed the Kashmir conflict. In this way, the NDA government under Vajpayee successfully portrayed the religious conflict of Kashmir as a political problem that asked for political solutions.
The UPA, on coming to power, worked out its policies in the new paradigm defined by the previous regime, and so began the new era of resettlement packages. As per the novel idea, the government announced economic incentives (roughly Rs. 7.5 lakh per family) for the displaced people that would help them return to their houses and repair them. But soon it dawned upon the experts who had come up with this idea that most of the houses did not belong to the original inhabitants anymore. Thus was born the idea of separate enclaves for Hindus.
However, in all this ingenuity, the one question that remained unanswered was whether the conditions that had led to the exile in the first place had improved or deteriorated. Now, as the religious fundamentalism behind the violence was being denied, the government had the impunity to declare that the root causes of the Kashmir problem were being addressed by engaging in dialogue with the ‘separatists’.
This rhetoric was further boosted by enticing some of the refugees living in dire poverty to shift to remote locations in the valley by providing them government jobs and then proclaiming success in the endeavour. As security of the returning population was no longer a consideration, it was made out to be that the Hindus were living happily in various parts of India and had no desire to go back. Thus the onus of return was transferred to Kashmiri Pandits.
Further, a narrative was promoted that Kashmiri Hindus have no leadership with whom the government can engage in any dialogue. The fact was that none of the major organizations representing Kashmiri Hindus agreed to the government’s proposal of sending them back as scapegoats and therefore, the dialogue broke down even before it began. As they could not find leaders to talk with, the government ended up engaging with dealers – those who toed the government’s line in exchange of petty favours.
As with everything else, it was expected that Narendra Modi would bring a fresh perspective to this business of resettling Hindus. However, his J&K rally before the election and his policies after getting elected demonstrate that he is only following the misguided policies of his predecessors and the latest announcement regarding the return of Hindus has pushed the Indian state over to the realm of delusion. As the BJD MP, Jay Panda tweeted:
Jay Panda’s tweet on the government’s new announcement
Despite the greater public expectations from the BJP, their policy related to Kashmiri Hindus often turns out to be worse than that of the Congress. While the Congress is associated with blatant appeasement politics, the BJP’s agenda in Kashmir is unmistakably anti-Hindu, in that they appear keen to whitewash the cultural genocide of Kashmiri Hindus by raising phoney slogans of “Kashmiriyat, Jamhuriyat and Insaniyat”, all of which is wholly rejected by their Hurriyat poster boys. There are historical reasons for this dangerous perversion.
Kashmiri Hindus and the RSS
Never in its history had the BJP played even a minor role in the politics of the Valley, owing to the uniquely skewed demographic equation in Kashmir. Just like the rest of the Indian society, the Sangh Parivar had little idea, because they had little experience, of the ground realities of Kashmiri politics, which has been heavily infused with the ideology of Muslim separatism since the earlier half of the twentieth century.
In contrast, the Congress was part of the state politics right from the time of Kashmir’s accession to India and ruled the state for many years. Therefore, even though the Congress party can be held directly responsible for the rise of insurgency in the valley, it cannot be accused of ignorance. Regardless of the cynical nature of Congress brand politics, their national leadership had the right inputs from their state units, who had their ears placed on the ground. Not so with the BJP.
As a consequence of the above, the leaders as well as the foot-soldiers of the RSS and BJP do not understand Kashmiri Hindu culture nor do they have an idea of the circumstances that led to half a million people getting uprooted from their home for millennia.
At the same time, there is hardly any doubt that the Sangh Parivar has little affection for the most famous man among Kashmiri Hindus – Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru. Although Nehru was self-admittedly a Hindu by accident of birth and had nothing to do with Kashmiri culture, yet he was, all said and done, a Kashmiri Pandit. It is also true that many Kashmiri Pandits in the valley held Nehru and later, his daughter Indira, in high esteem owing to a pride emanating from primitive tribalism. But that’s that.
However, Nehru’s antagonistic relationship with the Sangh Parivar has often resulted in a blanket prejudice against the ordinary Kashmiri Pandit, who is either stereotyped as the wily turncoat who betrays his own cause or a spineless snob who lacks the courage to defend himself. Like all stereotypes, these are reinforced by the selective recall of instances where Kashmiri Hindus have indeed acted that way. Sadly, the much talked about anti-intellectualism of the Sangh Parivar makes it impossible for them to look beyond these stereotypes.
Why Hindus fled
As explained above, the exodus of Hindus from the valley was a direct consequence of the rise of Jihadi terrorism in the late eighties. It had nothing to do with poverty, unemployment or an imagined alienation of the youth.
There are numerous self-declared Hindu nationalists, often RSS members, who believe that the Hindus could have offered a resistance to the Jihadi violence instead of fleeing from the valley. It is futile to debate on such wild prescriptions offered by people whose understanding of the valley is often informed by ‘nationalist’ messages on WhatsApp but it is important to lay down a few facts for the readers to make their own minds.
One, Hindus had been under siege in Kashmir not for a few years or decades but several centuries. Under such prolonged assault, survival and preservation of culture take precedence over guerilla warfare. Two, Hindus in the valley were overwhelmingly outnumbered by Muslims due to which the Hindus responded to daily harassment and mocking by tact rather than suicidal counter aggression. Three, the rise of jihad in Kashmir, just like anywhere else, was backed by foreign funds and the terrorists regularly crossed over to Pakistan to undergo ‘training’ in the act of waging war.
Terrorism was thus a well-planned and well-funded rebellion against the Indian state. According to this report, 6274 security personnel have died in terrorist attacks since 1988. The question to ask is that if a supremely organized, well armed and highly skilled force as the Indian Army has suffered so many fatalities ever since it has been deployed in Kashmir, what chance of success would an unorganized civilian counterattack have? In all probability, it would have resulted in genocide like the one in Rwanda.
Never mind the ‘Hindu nationalist’ jibes at the ‘escapism’ of Kashmiri Hindus, the reasons for their exile are absolutely clear. Therefore, for the government to say anything meaningful about the return of Kashmiri Hindus to the valley, it is imperative that they first take the root causes into cognizance and accordingly, devise their policies.
In short, Hindus cannot coexist with a radicalized majority in the valley and therefore, the government essentially has two options: Either they carve out a Union Territory for the displaced people with the full flow of Indian constitution (minus article 370) or else, they make arrangements to settle the exiled community somewhere else in India. Nothing else makes any sense.
As per laws passed in the US, documents are put up for automatic declassification after 25 years unless they fall under certain 9 narrow exceptions. So a CIA document dated 4th March 1988 regarding the Sweden’s Bofors Arms scandal was approved for release in 2014, and seems to have ended up in the public domain in December 2016 if one goes by reports. But before going any further:
The Indian Government had finalized a $1.5 Billion deal with Swedish arms manufacturer Bofors in order to acquire 410 field howitzer guns. It was the largest defense deal in Sweden till date and like everything which looks too good to be true, it ran into problems. Allegations of bribery surfaced and it was reported that Indian Politicians and officials received kickbacks for the deal.
Ottavio Quattrocchi, who was a close friend of Rajiv and Sonia Gandhi, was reported as the main middleman in the deal. Its reported that Quattrocchi’s influence in the government was so high that Indian bureaucrats used to stand up when he visited them. This Quattrocchi connection among others ensured that Rajiv Gandhi got directly embroiled in the scam that eventually contributed to him losing the election in 1989.
In the summary of the document, the CIA claims that investigation into the Bofors bribery was called off by the Swedish authorities in a bid to to prevent future revelations, which might embarrass the then Prime Minister of India Rajiv Gandhi. It also claimed that Swedish politicians cutting across party lines were culpable in some form or the other for the scandal, hence the inquiry was buried.
Also, apart from India there were countries like Iran, Singapore, Thailand, Taiwan among others, with whom the transactions carried out by Bofors were under the scanner for violation of norms and possible bribery.
After investigations had revealed that Bofors might have bribed Indian middlemen and officials, the Swedes carried out a national audit which concluded that as much as $40 Million were paid as commissions to middlemen. Both the Govt and Bofors has claimed that these payments were used to close the contracts with middlemen after Indian govt wished to exclude them from transactions:
After the audit, the Swedish police had initiated a separate investigation into the Bribery to Indian officials which though was terminated after Rajiv Gandhi went on a trip to Sweden in 1988:
The declassified CIA document does raise the question of a possible deal between Rajiv Gandhi and the Swedish authorities and whether the investigation was called off only to spare him of ’embarrassment’ or if it would have led to bigger mess.
Conclusion
Whatever said and done, the CIA felt that payments were almost certainly made to Indian officials either directly or indirectly to secure the $1.2 Billion deal.
After the word leaked causing difficulties for Rajiv Gandhi back home in India. Noble Industries (Bofors’s parent) too wished to avoid a bribery indictment. And to ensure both, the two sides cooperated and the details of payment were kept secret and the investigation was eventually called off.
This above stated CIA document suggests that both the Swede and Indian politicians were neck deep into the scandal, providing a possible explanation to why the matter was hushed up leading to it not being solved till date.
The Congress party keeps claiming that Bofors is a “dead horse” and flogging it won’t achieve anything. The party insists that no one in the Nehru-Gandhi family are guilty of personal corruption.
BJP leader and founder of Virat Hindustan Sangam (VHS) Subramanian Swamy is no fan of Arnab Goswami. In a live debate, he once called Arnab a “dumbo” and “liar” who was allegedly attributing false statements to him. He never appeared on Arnab’s flagship show The Newshour after that, insisting that Arnab has to be made to undergo prayashchit (penance) first:
@Raghu_Destroyer : Because Arnab is a despicable liar who has to be made to do prayaaschit.
Looks like Arnab didn’t undergo the ‘required’ prayashchit and hence now he is being made to face the shraap (curse) of Swamy.
Earlier today, the former Union Minister revealed on Twitter that he had written a letter to the Ministry of Information & Broadcasting, informing about a possible violation of rules and laws by Arnab, since the former Times Now editor-in-chief had named his new venture “Republic”:
The letter is dated January 13, which means Swamy wrote to the ministry barely a month after it became a public knowledge that Arnab’s new venture will be called “Republic” and within a week of its social media debut.
But does the name violate the laws of the land?
It appears that Swamy does have a point, as the Emblems and Names (Prevention of improper use) Act of 1950 (pdf link) forbids use of certain terms ‘for the purpose of any trade, business, calling or profession’. Such terms are explained and included in the act, and under item 6 of the schedule, the term “Republic” is mentioned (subject to interpretation of the clause):
Part of the Schedule in the Emblems and Names act, 1950.
Apart from the terms mentioned in the Emblems and Names act, the Corporate Affairs Ministry also has a list that forbids some terms while registering name of a private limited company or partnership. “Republic” is explicitly mentioned in that list.
However, the term “Republic” is not contained in the names of the private limited companies that could own this upcoming TV channel. The names of companies where Arnab is a director are ARG Outlier Media Private Limited and SARG Media Holding Private Limited, which seemingly are ‘safe’ and legitimate names.
While the company’s name is safe, what about the channel’s name? Does that violate any act or rule?
Experts believe that the Emblems and Names act will apply to the brand names or trademarks owned by a company too, and Arnab Goswami could be in trouble if Swamy decides to take it to a logical conclusion.
“Section 4 of the Emblems and Names act clearly says that no competent authority shall register a trademark which bears any emblem or name (included in the act). The channel name Republic must have been applied for a trademark, and that can be rejected under this act,” Ajita Patki, a Pune based lawyer specialising in Intellectual Property Rights said.
Therefore, Arnab might face a situation where he fails to secure a trademark for his new channel, which means that he may not be able to stop anyone else from pretending as Republic TV channel. Furthermore, he can invite penalties for using the term for his commercial venture.
“As per the Emblems and Names act, a penalty of just 500 rupees is mentioned, but the act also says that ‘the competent authority may refer the question to the Central Government, and the decision of the Central Government thereon shall be final’. Perhaps that’s why Swamy has written to the central government, though the Registrar of trademarks should have taken that step after receiving such objections,” Ms. Patki said.
But some believe that Arnab could be safe and he can cite the example of NDTV, which stands for New Delhi Television limited.
“If we go by strict interpretation and implementation of the act, even NDTV could appear to violate the item number 7 of the Emblems and Names act. The term ‘New Delhi’ in NDTV’s name could be argued to be suggesting a connection to the state or local authority of New Delhi,” Company Secretary and OpIndia columnist Ashutosh Muglikar argued.
So let’s see if Swamy is going to spoil Arnab’s party or Arnab will be able to save himself from this possible trouble.
PM Modi and newly elected President of USA Donald Trump spoke on the phone last night at about 11:30 PM. Modi became the 5th world leader Trump spoke to, after Canadian PM, Mexican Premier, Israeli PM and the Egyptian President. Many speculated as to what transpired between the two leaders, with chief issues speculated as being Pakistan, terrorism, H1B Visas among others.
PM Modi later updated about this telephonic conversation where the two leaders agreed upon to strengthen their bilateral ties. President Trump was also invited by the PM to visit India.
Though Trump hasn’t yet tweeted about it, the White House put out a press release regarding the phone call wherein Trump stressed that The US considers India a true friend and partner. Two leaders also had a discussion about strengthening their economic and defense partnerships and discussed the security situation in South and Central Asia. They also resolved to become allies in the global fight against terror and Trump extended an invitation to Modi to visit the US.
But such diplomatic talk is not for the Twitterati, who can see humour in everything. So as usual there were many reactions to this phone call between the two world leaders. Here are a few:
Parody account of Delhi CM asked the most important question:
Actors are always searching for new ways to promote their upcoming movies that would enable them to spread that extra word and earn that extra buck. Shah Rukh Khan (SRK), in an effort to promote his upcoming film Raees, which was initially reported to be based on the life of underworld don Abdul Latif, decided to go on a train ride from Mumbai to Delhi in August Kranti Rajdhani.
This ride helped him connect with people at various railway stations where the train stopped, and these stations saw huge crowds of SRK fans coming on to platforms to catch a glimpse of their superstar. What was presented as a nostalgic decision by someone trying to retrace his roots by travelling back to his hometown (SRK grew up in Delhi) turned out to be a harrowing experience for many.
Situation went out of control at Vadodara and Kota where police had to resort to lathi-charge in order to control the large crowd present at both the stations. Not only it caused inconvenience to commuters, Vadodara railway station witnessed an unfortunate incident where a man died due to heart attack after getting trapped in the mad rush of SRK fans.
Initially being dubbed as a fan himself, details are now emerging that the deceased named Fareed Khan Pathan was a local politician who was there with his family in order to meet a journalist travelling in the same train. The relatives of the deceased too have denied that he was there to see SRK. Railway Minister Suresh Prabhu has now ordered an inquiry to probe the whole incident.
But this death is not the only controversy related to SRK’s promotional ride. People are now questioning whether Shah Rukh Khan and his team had taken permission from the railways, and whether this permission was granted. The official twitter handle of Rail Ministry tweeted about SRK’s journey, but it was not clear whether the ministry or officials were aware or part of this promotion.
Mr @iamsrk Reviving good old memories of happy rail journey! Heading towards Delhi in WR’s AK Rajdhani Exp pic.twitter.com/lMPDkO1eQc
If the Railways indeed provided permission for the promotion at their already crowded platforms, did they not anticipate the difficulties and chaos it would create? Since this promotional event can be argued to be a commercial endeavour, did the Railways charge fee for offering its premises for promotion? It should be noted that earlier this month, Railways had announced availability of its establishment for non-travel activities like hosting weddings for a fee.
Many people on social media raised such questions. And going a step further, activist Abha Singh wrote to Rail Minister and demanded action against SRK and officials:
My letter to Rly Minister to get FIR done agst SRK& Rly ofcrs under sec 145,175,179 RlyAct&336 IPC for using Rly Platform as promotion venue pic.twitter.com/8yLLFrQPrX
Ms. Singh claims that the promotion was illegal and SRK’s PR team was responsible for the large crowds at the stations. She also claimed that Shah Rukh Khan violated section 145, 175, 17-9 of the railways acts, which are triggered if someone’s action causes inconvenience to other passengers. She has asked for an FIR to be registered over this. She has further asked for an inquiry against the railway officials who were on board regarding the promotion.
Whatever the outcome of this be, the move surely received a lot of media coverage and if controversy is another mean to promote the movie, that was bonus.
Despite the SP-Congress alliance about which the whole media is going gaga over, BJP still has the edge over others in the upcoming assembly elections. Contrary to what the media is projecting on the vote-share math based on 2012 elections, the vote-share to really look at is 2014 Lok Sabha elections, which gave a sweeping victory to BJP that resulted in BJP alone getting 71 out of 80 seats (that translate to more than 300 assembly seats) and 2 of Apna Dal, its partner in NDA.
According to a survey, BJP had received more than 75% of the Brahmin and upper caste votes, and more than 50% of OBC votes, plus a 20% of Jatavs and Dalit vote means, there was a high consolidation of Hindu votes across the board. They even managed to get 10% of Muslim votes in 2014, which anyway was a bonus. This resulted in a staggering 42% of the total vote-share, leaving SP and BSP at almost half of this. Congress was practically decimated.
This was almost the same case in Bihar, which is why Nitish and Lalu allied together which upset the vote-share math in 2015 Assembly elections. If you analyse the Bihar elections, there is no way BJP would have been able to conquer the total vote-share of JD(U), RJD and Congress put together of what they achieved in 2014 Lok Sabha elections. Which is why, after trying to prop Priyanka Gandhi as the “Brahmin” face of Congress and ending up with Sheila Dixit, the wily Prashant Kishor tried the Bihar Mahagatbandhan model in UP too, perhaps prodded by Lalu and Nitish themselves to make SP come to the table this time.
But it is clear, the SP-Congress alliance in itself is a partial admission of SP’s own failure to win the elections on its own, and total admission of Congress having no chance at all if it plays the game by itself. So all that they are trying to do is to keep Muslim votes together instead of getting split, but what is being missed is, BSP too enjoy substantial share of Muslim votes, and BJP too had a 10% share of Muslim votes, and Muslims in general are realising they are being used only as vote-bank by such secular parties.
Therefore, unless the Mahagatbandhan is between BSP and SP (with or without Congress), the numbers really don’t add up to make a big upset for BJP yet. Assuming BJP retains most of the upper caste votes that it got in 2014 and manages to retain half of the OBC and Jatav votes, it would still be good at above 30% of the vote share which is enough for it to cross the line in a three cornered fight.
Granted, the drivers for state assembly elections are not the same as for Parliamentary elections and it is two years down the lane since Modi wave was at its peak in 2014, and also the assembly bye-election results post 2014 were in SP’s favour. Besides, Akhilesh Yadav has somehow managed to first pull a victim card in the family drama and then emerging as a fighting hero and looking good as the one to take over SP totally from Mulayam’s grip which could possibly give him an edge to fight the anti-incumbency.
But if he was so confident that way, he needn’t have agreed to make this alliance with Congress in the first place. It is not as if, he was making an alliance like in Bihar where principal opposition parties ganged up against Modi. Mayawati is no push-over but a strong contender herself as she had trounced SP in 2007. Though BSP didn’t get a single seat in 2014 general elections, their vote share is not small. They had polled as much votes as Mamata’s TMC or Jayalalitha’s AIADMK did in Bengal and Tamilnadu that got them 34 and 37 seats each respectively. And she fielded the maximum Muslim candidates in the election, more than SP or Congress, and is sure to take some Muslim votes this time as well. Therefore without BSP in the alliance, it isn’t as good as the Mahagatbandhan in Bihar.
Having said that, what could definitely go against BJP are the following.
They are still banking on Modi to win elections instead of a strong local leader who could be their CM face. This was their undoing in Bihar too. In UP, the problem is of plenty and the high conflict of priorities and interests among its popular leaders between Hindutva, Ram temple, Development and such. Also the infighting cannot be ruled out due to this and many are waiting and wanting to see Modi fail in UP too to build their own aspirations.
It is also not clear what are the true repercussions of demonetisation in rural Uttar Pradesh and how much the people have welcomed this there, or how cut up the people there are due to the pains caused due to it. Besides, others like AAP have pledged to campaign against BJP though they are not directly contesting the elections, and not to forget the mainstream media that appears to be backing Akhilesh Yadav 2.0
Hence Amit Shah and Om Mathur have their task cut out to ensure what was achieved in 2014 is not allowed to slip away, as on paper it is still a BJP’s election to lose.
Aftere Bihar Police claimed that the recent train accidents, including the derailment of Indore-Patna express near Kanpur which left over 150 dead, was possibly orchestrated by the Pakistan’s intelligence agency ISI, more details are now emerging over how the ISI network in India could be involved in this sabotage.
Investigations are now pointing to an elaborate sabotage operation, the main brain behind which is a man called Shafi Shaikh. As informed to the Government of India by RAW, Karachi based Shafi Shaikh is a known ISI agent and is a main cog in Pakistan’s Fake Indian Currency Note (FICN) operations.
The Operation:
Shafi Shaikh is believed to have been in contact with a certain Nepali national named Shamshul Hoda, who in turn contacted Nepali criminal Brij Kishore Giri for targeting Indian railways. Brij Kishore oversaw the execution of the sabotage by hiring locals in India, who reportedly then proceeded to plant IEDs on tracks.
Two of his associates, Arun Ram and Deepak Ram were hired by Giri to plant IED near Ghosharan in Bihar, which when detected by the security authorities made Giri livid. As a punishment, he decided to murder them. Police in Nepal found a video recording of this murder, which Giri had made reportedly to send as a proof to Hoda.
For his next operation, Giri hired Moti Paswan, who was the first one to confess to the Bihar Police about the whole sabotage operation.
It is further reported that Giri (who has been arrested by Nepal police but is currently hospitalized after trying to escape from the cops) and Hoda were in regular correspondence over the phone. Hoda is currently believed to be in Dubai.
The Motive?
Though not confirmed by agencies, these sabotages might have been Shafi Shaikh’s way of extracting ‘revenge’ against India. As the kingpin of fake currency operations in India, he was presiding over a ‘business’ that yielded at least 500 crore rupees in profits for the Pakistanis.
However, this business has been provided a crippling blow due to demonetisation leading to a complete stop in FICN smuggling, according to MoS Home, Kiren Rijiju. Such a loss in revenue could have prompted Shaikh and his peers in the ISI to think up the whole train sabotage operation in order to get even.
The arrests and investigations by the police hint at this possibility as the frequency of such incidents has increased (there have been five train derailments since November 20 last year) after the effects of demonetisation became clear.
Around 3 months ago, we had published a two part (here and here) curtain raiser on the mood of Goa, as it goes into assembly elections along with heavyweight states like Uttar Pradesh and Punjab. We had looked at the BJP, Congress, AAP and other regional players to ascertain who had an upper hand. At that point in time, many things were in a state of flux, and as the we go into the final lap, most of those uncertainties have firmed up, and a clearer picture has emerged.
Talking about the BJP as a party, compared to 2012 (last assembly elections) it is certainly depleted. Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar had officially led the party in 2012. Now, leaders have begun alluding to his return, because the Goa BJP has failed to throw up any face which can step into Parrikar’s humongous shoes.
In 2012, the RSS cadre was firmly behind BJP, but now, a faction has split from the BJP, and is contesting under the banner of Goa Suraksha Manch (GSM). In 2012, BJP had allied with MGP, a regional far-right party, ensuring Hindu votes do not get split. Now, the party has parted ways from the BJP and has instead allied with the aforementioned GSM. In 2012, the Church had decreed that the faithful should vote out the “corrupt”, alluding to Congress, thus giving a fillip to BJP. Now, the Church has pretty clearly sounded the bugle against the BJP.
But all is not going south for BJP. It has roped in a few Congress MLAs and candidates based on the “winnability” factor rather than ideological reasons. The GSM may not have the strength to really damage the BJP since their single point focus is on the Medium of Instruction (MOI), which doesn’t seem to be a major issue among the public. While in 2012 there was a strong anti-Congress anti-incumbency wave across all sections of the society, the 2017 elections seem largely devoid of any discernible wave. Among the minorities, there surely maybe an anti-BJP wave, especially when you consider that some of them had supported the BJP in 2012, but among the Hindus there is no clear wave, neither for, nor against the BJP.
The BJP government in the state can be credited with significant infrastructure works undertaken in the last 5 years, along with a slew of social welfare schemes targeting all needy sections of the society. The tricky issues that the BJP Government hasn’t addressed well are: the removal of Casinos from the Mandovi river, the MOI issue (among a core vote bank), failing to completely weed out corruption (although there have been no major scams), failing to take to task the Mining scam accused (primarily from the Congress).
The BJP’s main opposition Congress too has had a similar fate over the last few years. Today, many smaller regional parties and leaders who claim to be an alternative to BJP and the Congress, are actually one time members of the Congress. The state Congress has essentially disintegrated into regional parties like GFP, UGP, GSRP, GVP and some Congress loyalists have even jumped ship to NCP. As stated above, some have even defected to the BJP. It was widely expected that if not all of the above, Congress and most of the above “secular forces” would cobble up a “Mahagathbandhan” to take on the BJP. But the treachery of Congress has ensured that in at least 37 out of the 40 seats, the various versions of Congress would be battling each other, besides the BJP, MGP-GSM combine and AAP.
The Congress still hasn’t been able to shake off its image of being a party that aides and abets corruption. The recent fiasco of “seat sharing” between Congress and GFP, which ended up in Congress almost cheating GFP, hasn’t done any favours to its image. Congress also has multiple old-timers who have been CMs in the past, raising doubts as to their capability to provide a stable Government. The Congress is still remembered for giving Goa ten Chief Ministers over a period of 12 years in the 1990s. The regional parties have holds over certain pockets but are in no position to offer any pan Goa alternative. In short, no one expects the Congress to cross the magic figure of 21 on its own, and even with its estranged children, reaching there maybe a stretch.
The MGP is led by 2 brothers, making it essentially a fiefdom of their family, with one of the brother harbouring hopes of becoming the chief minister, in spite of having just 3 MLAs as of now. MGP had been a coalition partner with the Congress from 2007 to 2012, and then a coalition partner with the BJP from 2012 to 2017, thus enjoying 10 continuous years in power. Hence, their last minute unconvincing split from the BJP has ended up portraying them in negative light. The RSS faction of GSM, claims to be ideologically opposed to the BJP due to the MOI issue, but the real reason may actually be a bitter ego clash. Together, the two will certainly eat into BJP’s 2012 vote share, but their influence again is not pan Goa.
The AAP is the last player in this multi-cornered fight. AAP can claim to have run the longest and probably the most systematic campaign in the state. But the fact is they may have peaked too soon, and in spite of all the banners splashed around, they don’t seem to have converted their campaign into votes or supporters. The AAP can be held guilty of choosing some rather weak candidates, and also not being able to convince voters that they are a real alternative, as opposed to a vote-cutter party. AAP is mainly looking to cash in on the anti-BJP sentiment among minorities but if they do not pull away a critical mass, then they may end up helping BJP in some seats.
To sum up: the BJP is not in great shape, having lost some of its votes from the far-right as well as the “secular” brigade. The lost far-right votes to MGP-GSM combine may not translate into too many electoral debacles since they aren’t a pan Goa force. The Congress is also weak, hence not in a position to absorb fully the “secular” votes moving away from the BJP. These votes would probably be shared by Congress, its numerous estranged children and AAP. In some places, this split may ensure the BJP doesn’t lose, and may even help BJP win some extra seats.
This arithmetic of course goes for a toss if there is “tactical voting”, where in the anti-BJP voters decide to unite behind the force which is most likely to defeat BJP in every constituency. This would largely depend on how the Church plays its card. Till now, although it has fired shots at the BJP, it has stopped short of hinting at which alternative the faithful should consider. This sort of guidance though is restricted to the last few days before the elections, and is usually delivered at sermons, and not publicly.
In the event that the anti-BJP votes split (as they stand today), BJP will be within sniffing distance of 21 (its current tally, which is also the magic figure), or even cross it if some of the results go their way. Most opinion polls of late seem to have factored this arithmetic, and hence have given BJP a seemingly clear edge, paving the way for it to come back to power.
Even if the anti-BJP votes gravitate to the force most capable of defeating BJP in each constituency, no party seems to be in a position to come near 21 seats and it would be tough fight between the Congress and BJP to be the single largest party.
