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The various political combinations of Goa and why India may lose its Defence Minister

Gaurav
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The various political combinations of Goa and why India may lose its Defence Minister

The next 24 to 48 hours will be extremely exciting in Goan Politics. The Goa elections threw up a fractured mandate, with Congress on 17, BJP on 13, MGP on 3, GFP on 3, NCP on 1 and Independents with 3 on their side. The message to the BJP was analysed here, but it seems the BJP is still keen on forming the Government. In fact, looking at the speed of the BJP, it would appear that they have got the majority and the Congress has been rejected by the voters. A few scenarios may play out:

Scenario 1: BJP led Government

For this BJP (13) is said to be talking to MGP (3), GFP (3) and 2 independents. Getting the NCP and one more independent would be a bonus.

The MGP most recently allied with BJP to be part of the Government from 2012-2016. Before that they had allied with the Congress. Thus, they can swing both ways, but in the present scenario, have expressed desire to go with BJP. There can be 2 reasons: Firstly, MGP realises that they can make merry only with the BJP, since the BJP at the centre will ensure a steady flow of funds. Secondly, Union Minister and Goa observer Gadkari, is close to the MGP honcho Dhavlikar.

The GFP is made up of Congress-men. GFP and Congress were on the verge of allying for the elections, but some last-minute treachery by the Congress meant the deal was off. The skullduggery was allegedly done by Goa Congress Chief Luizinho Faleiro, who has very bad relations with GFP chief Sardesai. This could be one reason why GFP doesn’t want to go with the Congress. But unlike MGP, for the last five years GFP has been a staunch critic of the BJP. This ideological clash is the only thing stopping a BJP-GFP combine. The BJP is planning to nullify this by offering plum ministerial berths to all of GFP’s MLAs. The Congress may not be able to match this, since it has many senior leaders in its 17 which need to be rewarded.

Further, since Faleiro lead the Congress to 17 seats, he is lobbying to become the CM. This is most certainly not acceptable to GFP due to the aforesaid unsavoury episode.

The NCP is in reality run by the lone MLA Alemao, who has been notorious for jumping parties every now and then. Hence, conflating the Goa NCP with the national NCP would not be wise, and it should be understood that the Goa NCP is effectively functioning like an independent MLA.

In the midst of all this, the Goa BJP has passed a resolution demanding that Defence Parrikar Manohar Parrikar be sent back to Goa as the CM. Media also reports that the potential allies have also stated that they would come together only under Parrikar as CM.

Social media is abuzz with conspiracy theories that this could be a plan by defence lobbyists to send back Mr Clean Parrikar so that they can run riot at the centre. But the truth maybe something very boring: For weeks, if not months, Goa has been rife with speculation that Parrikar himself wants to come back. The rumours only got stronger in the run up to the elections, following Parrikar’s cryptic statements. It is an open secret that when he left Goa, he wasn’t very happy to leave his term as a CM of Goa with full majority midway, and that he prefers to be in his home state. Thus, this just might be a ploy by him, to get the local parties to “pull” him back from Delhi.

The BJP on its part has made various statements that talks are on with smaller parties, and if all goes well, within 24 hours, Goa will get another BJP Government.

Scenario 2: Congress led Government

The Congress seems to be very slow of the blocks inspite of being the single largest party. They are still talking among themselves and if media reports are to be believed, they haven’t formally started talking with potential allies. The reason for this is very clear: The Congress is not as much as a united party, as it is a collection of political heavyweights.

Because of this, the Congress is struggling to elect a leader amongst itself. Congress state chief Faleiro led the Congress to this position of strength from a very bad situation. Thus, he naturally feels he should be the CM choice. This would have been fine, but the most likely ally of the Congress, the GFP clearly has no intentions of being part of a Faleiro led Government. They in turn have asked for Former CM Digambar Kamat, who is close to the GFP supremo, to be brought back as CM.

The Congress also has to consider Former CM Pratapsingh Rane as a contender. He himself has ruled himself out, but his ambitious MLA son has prodded his father’s name. Also in the mix is another former CM Ravi Naik, who has emerged victorious after a hiatus of 5 years. Only once the Congress sorts this inner battle, can it approach allies.

Inspite of the quick moves by BJP to woe MGP and GFP, the Congress may still have the last laugh. Characters like the GFP cannot be trusted to be loyal. Till now, the GFP has not made any statement officially, and it may well be a ploy by the GFP to use BJP as a bargaining chip in its deals with the Congress. It should not surprise anyone if the GFP swerves to the Congress at the very last minute.

The Congress has 17 MLAs, plus it has an independent it had backed. Add to this the 3 GFP MLAs and they cross the magic half way mark figure of 20. Thus, irrespective of what the BJP says, until its signed, sealed and delivered, one cannot rule out a Congress Government.

Plan C

Unlikely, but in the magical state of Goa, one cannot rule out some dirty tricks. The MGP was earlier controlled by the Dhavlikar brothers. This time around only one of the two has emerged victorious, with 2 new MLA faces. The BJP can engineer these 2 MLAs to split and merge into the BJP. Improbable, but something similar can be tried with GFP also.

All in all, the next few days will be exciting.

Uttar Pradesh: Lessons for liberals who jumped down the rabbit hole

Abhishek Banerjee
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Uttar Pradesh: Lessons for liberals who jumped down the rabbit hole

Phew! That was quite a bromance between two of India’s most admired Shehzadas. But you know, at the end of the day, UP ko anti-Romeo squad pasand hai.

The result from Uttar Pradesh had not been in doubt at least since March 3. That’s when Amit Shah, instead of ducking questions and hedging his bets, began to openly dare the media to make the UP elections a referendum not only on demonetization, but on the performance of the Modi government itself.

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Then, the exit polls came to light, followed by Akhilesh Yadav’s clearly defeatist comments and Mayawati’s absurd charges of EVM tampering. The election results were written in large letters on the faces of the BJP’s two main opponents. Nevertheless, it was amusing to see some alleged journalists fanning the flames of hope until the bitter end. I shall not name them of course. Stories about “Jat anger” and “BSP surge” and “desperate Modi in Varanasi” being already past their sell by date, one can only assume that these Extra Terrestrial (ET) reporters were working for tips.

In the end, it came down to a nail biting contest for the 4th position in Uttar Pradesh between the RLD, the Congress and two small BJP allies : the Apna Dal and the Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party (SBSP). This, despite  Honorable Priyanka Gandhiji  who did “more than just physical campaigning”.

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Such a tremendous blow to a feminist icon so close on the heels of International Women’s Day is one symptom of a society still neck-deep in patriarchy.

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Another symptom of patriarchy is the fact that I had to fish out this enlightened article from the Google Web cache here. Because much like the Congress disappearing from the map of India, the original article has disappeared from the website of The Indian Express.

Anyway, the contest for 4th place got hotter when it seemed for a while that Mayawati was also throwing her hat into the ring. But just in case you are feeling a bit sorry for the BSP, please don’t. If you can find it in your heart, better feel sorry for those suckers who had to pay several crores. That too probably in notes of Rs 100 (or less) at the peak of notebandi.

There is a lesson here for everyone and I’ll start with the lesson for the BJP and its supporters (or at least its online sympathizers). Stop worrying about a tiny regional party that I do not care to name over here. No matter whether the Congress is unconscious, in the ICU or high on mood altering substances, they will continue to be the BJP’s principal challenger for at least a decade and likely more. Stop falling for the media trick of sending the BJP to chase a tiny mosquito through the jungle while it is being stalked for prey by the expert carnivores in the wild.

The bigger lessons, of course, are for the losers in this election. The reason Akhilesh Yadav boarded the media train to nowhere is because he drew exactly the wrong lessons from Modi’s career. Akhilesh Yadav saw that Modi had a fantastic PR campaign in 2014. He convinced himself that only if he could get one of those for himself, he would win as well.

But what Akhilesh didn’t realize is that he was only looking at the tip of the iceberg. He did not realize that Modi’s showmanship was buttressed by 12 years of working hard at the nuts and bolts in Gujarat. Akhilesh made the same mistake when he expected a repeat of Bihar 2015 in Uttar Pradesh. He saw that Nitish had great arithmetic and the PR skills of Prashant Kishore. What he didn’t see was that Nitish had spent 10 years pulling Bihar out of the trash the hard way.

Akhilesh Yadav was like the beaming kid who gets his photograph taken with his new bat that has a sticker of Sachin Tendulkar. No hairstyle, no tone of voice and no sticker can make a kid into Sachin Tendulkar. It takes talent, luck and more hard work than you can even imagine.

Of course, Akhilesh’s retinue of flattering patrakars were happy to tell him that the Yadav Shehzada was on his way to making history. He was paying them to enhance his illusion. Frankly, Akhilesh would have been better off listening to his veteran dad and battle hardened uncle.

The best thing about this election is that Mayawati’s ponzi scheme with caste / religious groups has finally come to an end. First Dalits, then Brahmins and now Muslims … her modus operandi of pretending to be advocate of one group in each election, then collecting her winnings and moving on had to end somewhere. She had a good run though and our society has only itself to blame for that.

By the way, the exact point where I knew that BJP had won Uttar Pradesh was when the Lutyens consensus shifted to a “BSP surge” from the narrative of an Akhilesh wave. You see, BSP is like a “safe space” where snowflake liberals go when they get “triggered” by the bitterness of reality. This is because Mayawati’s vision of India as a chaos of numerous social factions, all at perennial war with each other, holds a primal fascination for the Indian liberal. You know, the type that romances JNU. The liberals tried to insult voter intelligence by spreading the rumor that Jats in Western UP were wasting their votes on a tiny vote katwa party with no hope of crossing 20 seats. It didn’t work. When their machinations failed in the Yadav heartland, the liberals changed horses midway and gravitated towards their “safe space” in the BSP tent. No wonder then that the “idea of India” fell between two stools.

The final lesson in this election is for the pollsters, especially the elite ones at CSDS-Lokniti. How did they manage to dig themselves into a hole like this?

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I do not for a moment doubt the sincerity and veracity of this next claim:

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And yet they missed a historic wave in Uttar Pradesh. I can bet it’s because they let their own pet theory of the “vocal BJP voter” interfere with their conclusions. When you mix faith with science, the result is always havoc. Perhaps next time CSDS-Lokniti should be loyal to their own data rather than their own prejudices from the 90s. Come out of the Yogendra Yadav frame of mind.  But them, you can’t teach an old Commie new tricks.

Did polarization of Hindu votes take place in Uttar Pradesh?

Rahul Roushan
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Did polarization of Hindu votes take place in Uttar Pradesh?

I was invited to Zee News for discussing assembly election results and there I had the opportunity to talk to Arif Mohammad Khan, who once was a state minister and an active politician, famous for being the Muslim face who quit Congress when Rajiv Gandhi, then enjoying a mammoth majority in Lok Sabha, took steps to overturn the Shah Bano judgment to please Muslim fundamentalists.

As trends appeared to settle down and it looked like BJP was all set to win Uttar Pradesh (and it has swept the elections like the 2014 Lok Sabha elections as I write), some people started talking about kabristan-shamshan and “polarization”.

Arif Mohammad Khan
Arif Mohammad Khan had joined BJP in 2004, but left the party in 2007 as he felt he was being ignored. He has not been active in politics since then.

Mr. Khan too agreed that some “communal” polarization helped BJP in Uttar Pradesh, but he put the blame squarely on the “secular” parties for triggering this polarization.

He had an interesting argument. He said that Hindus can’t be polarized out of thin air i.e. one can’t expect Hindu votes to consolidate due to some religious slogans or due to some religious campaigns on its own. He said that Hindu polarization can happen, and does happen, only in reaction to Muslim polarization.

To support his argument, he pointed out that if Hindus could be polarized just on religious lines, parties like Jan Sangh should have done rather well in elections in newly independent India, when memories of partition were fresh. But nothing of that sort happened, as Muslims who stayed back in India were not a “vote bank” yet in Hindu eyes.

He argues that the Hindu polarization started happening only after the Shah Bano case – i.e. as a reaction to what was seen as a policy of appeasement and vote bank politics. And that grew to take shape of Ram Janmbhoomi movement eventually.

In the same regard, he referred to the AK Antony report – prepared by the Congress party to analyze the causes of 2014 Lok Sabha defeat – where it was pointed out that Congress’ secularism was seen as “Anti Hindu”. Even on air during discussion, he suggested, rather beseeched, the Congress representatives to go back and read that report and reflect.

In December 2015, I had written about this Antony report, and what I thought was Congress’ takeaway from it. I had argued that Congress thought that perhaps it was better to “guilt trip” the Hindus (through campaigns like “rising intolerance”) rather than take any step that corrects this impression of its secularism being “Anti Hindu”.

As per Arif Mohammad Khan, the moment Congress and Samajwadi Party came together, it was a signal of Muslim vote consolidation – for there is nothing else common between the supporters of the two parties except Muslim votes – and this in turn caused Hindu consolidation.

Now I may tend to agree with this observation due to confirmation bias, but perhaps there is much merit to it.

The first thing that came to my mind is that if Congress and Samajwadi Party coming together could signal Muslim consolidation, why did the same not happen in Bihar where everyone came together against the BJP?

Maybe because in Bihar coming together of RJD-JD(U)-Congress was seen as caste consolidation rather than communal consolidation. The reservation controversy triggered by some statements by RSS leaders too made sure that in Bihar, it remained about caste rather than religion. Even though BJP did try to raise the cow slaughter issue in the last leg of elections, the polarization couldn’t be as successful, as it was not in reaction to any perceived Muslim polarization?

Nonetheless, it doesn’t look like Congress is going to heed to Arif Mohammad Khan’s advice of taking Antony’s report seriously, because their “rising intolerance” strategy appeared to give them victory in Bihar.

Even though they have lost Uttar Pradesh, don’t think they will even remotely link it to what Mr. Khan said. And maybe that will continue to be a good news for the BJP.

Goa Election Results: The low-down and what can be expected

Gaurav
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Goa Election Results: The low-down and what can be expected

Uttar Pradesh and adjoining Uttarakhand saw a BJP or rather Modi Tsunami. Manipur too is looking ripe for picking by the BJP. But in Goa, the BJP deflated from a commanding 21 (20 is the half way mark), to a lowly 13. In Punjab, the BJP was a much smaller player since SAD was the bigger partner, and in that sense, Goa has broken a nationwide trend of a BJP upsurge.

It was a multi-cornered contest in Goa, the “Right” space being fought for by BJP, former partner MGP, and RSS faction led GSM. The “Left” space was being fought for by Congress, NCP and its splinters like GFP, GVP etc. Add to this, the enthusiastic AAP. In an earlier post predicting the Goa elections in January 2017, I had elicited two possibilities: a split in the anti-BJP votes, leading to BJP coming close to the majority mark OR a consolidation of the anti-BJP votes, leading to a fight between BJP and Congress for the single largest party. The second scenario has played out, and Congress with 17 has its nose ahead.

Where BJP lost its way

For the first time, a sitting Chief Minister lost his seat in Goa, that too by a huge margin. Besides him, 4 senior two-term MLAs and Ministers also lost their seats, some by big margins. On the other hand, both Christian Ministers retained their seats, all Christian MLAs (6 including aforesaid 2 ministers) retained their seats, and BJP added one more Christian MLA, thus having more Christian MLAs (7) than Hindu MLAs right now. Also, most of the MLAs who have won from BJP, are “younger” or “newer” faces, with most of the old guard losing. The messages are clear:

1. Voters rejected the arrogance & non-performance of the sitting ministers. Inspite of giving a stable Government which has arguably undertaken maximum development works along with most welfare schemes, these senior ministers failed to win, while their younger counterparts, with no ministries, managed to go through. This shows that the fault lies at the individual level.

2. The Minorities which had backed BJP in 2012 have moved away. This disenchantment was inspite of tremendous appeasement politics of BJP in Goa, which even led to a split in the RSS in Goa. The main reason for this is the polarising image of PM Modi, and Parrikar’s closeness to Modi.

3. A seat by seat analysis shows that in most places where BJP has lost, the split in the saffron forces (BJP-MGP-GSM) hasn’t had much impact. Beyond 3 to 4 seats, this factor hasn’t played out. Thus, it doesnt alone explain the fall from 21 to 13, despite importing 2 sure winners from the Congress.

4. BJP had sensed the imminent defeat of CM Parsekar and had hence probably shied away from declaring him as the CM candidate. The BJP even tried to put Parrikar’s name in the mix, to pull votes. The Defence Minister himself campaigned extensively in many parts of Goa, trying to undo some of the damage. Clearly, the voters have not forgiven the sins of his ministers, just because of his soothing balm.

A Congress Resurgence?

To the plain eye, the rise of the Congress is miraculous. It had won 9 seats in 2012. Out of these BJP poached 2 candidates, and 1 was thrown out by the Congress itself, leaving it with 6 MLAs. Over the last 5 years, the Congress had ceded the space of the “opposition” to smaller regional satraps/independents. Yet, they now managed to reach 17. Is the Congress as a party seeing a revival?

In Goa, the Congress is mostly defined by regional satraps, some of whom cannot see eye to eye even with each other. Thus, to say the “Congress” has won, would be overstating the impact of “Congress” the party. Fact is 4 people who jumped ship from Congress to BJP also won on the BJP ticket, 3 who left Congress for smaller parties also won their respective seats. These people won, without the Congress tag, thus showing that it was their individual strength, which had a large part to play. The 17 seats of the Congress are thus  largely due to the presence of strong regional leaders, and the natural swing away from the BJP.

AAP impact?

AAP had projected itself as being in the pole position to usurp the anti-BJP space. Banners of 35% vote-share were plastered all over Goa. They had begun referring to their CM Candidate as the “next CM”. In the end, AAP ended up with 6% vote-share, not a single seat, and the “next CM of Goa”, Elvis Gomes, ended up a lowly fourth in his own constituency. To say that AAP’s performance was underwhelming would be an understatement.

Quite clearly, the anti-BJP vote, especially that of the Christians, did not move much towards AAP, probably because they sensed that AAP would act more as a vote-cutter, than a party which could actually win. This in turn helped Congress get to their tally of 17. The drubbing of the national image of AAP also did no favours to AAP Goa.

The rest: King makers

MGP got 3 seats, same number as it had last time. GFP won 3 seats, up from the lone seat its founder member had won as an independent. NCP won one seat. And the rest went to 1 BJP backed independent, 1 Congress backed independent, and another slightly BJP inclined independent.

Both the BJP (13) or the Congress (17) need the support of all or any of the above to form a Government. This is how the players are inclined:

1. MGP: Was in the Government with Congress till 2012, and then with BJP for 5 years till 2017. It can swing both sides so there is no “ideological” challenge for them. Latest statements indicate that MGP would like to ally with the BJP, but this could quickly change with a sweet deal from Congress.

A twist in the tale: The MGP was for long a party controlled by its 2 MLA brothers: The Dhavlikars. Now, one of them has lost, and for the first time after many years, the MGP has 2 MLAs who are not part of the controlling family. One of these 2 MLAs, is notorious for his party hopping ways, having been in both the BJP and the Congress. He is even rumoured to have said that he s willing to take another MLA and split from the MGP, merging into the BJP. Will that play out? The BJP would love to avoid Dhavlikar, who is know for his ways of extracting a high price for his support.

2. GFP: All MLAs are ex-congressmen. The party was formed on the model of a left-of-centre version of Shiv Sena or MNS, i.e. fiercely protecting Goan identity. The GFP was to ally with the Congress, but ego issues with the Congress state chief meant that some last-minute back-stabbing led them to going their own ways. GFP still remembers this recent double-crossing by the Congress.  On the other hand, the GFP mentor has made a mark for himself by his strident anti-BJP and anti-Parrikar position, eating up the opposition space in the state assembly. However, in the past week (probably owing to exit polls), GFP had slightly softened its stand towards BJP. As of now, they indicate that they are open to talks to both BJP and Congress.

The stumbling blocks for GFP would be these: Going with BJP would not suit its ideology. But going with Congress would mean forgiving a deceiver. Worse, Goa Congress Chief and Former CM Luizinho Faleiro is eyeing the CM’s post, and he and the GFP mentor Sardesai are on extremely poor terms. Going with the Congress would mean either GFP takes a back-seat, or Congress goes for another CM face, which would again throw up an internal fight.

3. NCP: NCP as a party is non-existent and is essentially a one man show run by the lone MLA Churchill Alemao, who too can swing both ways if needed. It is more likely he will go with Congress though.

4. The Independents can also be considered to be equally willing to ally with either the BJP or the Congress.

BJP has not given up

Even though the mandate has clearly rejected BJP, BJP is still keeping its options open. Amit Shah mentioned in a press conference that the BJP would form the Government in Goa. At the state level, Parrikar has made it clear that since BJP still enjoys the highest voter-share, BJP has won the popular voter, and will try to provide a “stable” Government, by talking to all MLAs and parties.

With the Centre on its side, a possibly pliable Governor, and an internally divided Congress, the BJP may somehow cobble up 21 MLAs. But such a Government, may not be “morally” acceptable since the verdict is clearly an anti-BJP vote. This experiment, if it happens, could lead to political harakiri for the BJP, unless this hotch-potch Government manages to perform exceedingly well.

The way forward

Ideally, the BJP should let Congress go ahead with forming the Government. The verdict clearly shows the Congress as the winner, and the BJP must be gracious in defeat. The Congress has its own internal squabbles for the CM’s post and has icy relations with potential allies. Such a wobbly Government may not last long and may rekindle the desire among voters to see the stability which BJP had provided them with earlier.

Further, the 2019 Lok Sabha elections are just 2 years away, and the BJP could try to get mid-term polls then, hoping to sail through with the national mood, along with the possible disenchantment of the voters with a shaky Congress led Government. For now, the BJP must accept that in large parts, the BJP itself has defeated the BJP.

Reactions: Mayawati cries EVM tampering as BJP even won in Muslim majority areas

OpIndia Staff
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Reactions: Mayawati cries EVM tampering as BJP even won in Muslim majority areas

BSP supremo Mayawati whose party is performing poorly in UP seems to be very angry with the verdict. Today when she called a press conference, people expected that she would issue a statement conceding her party’s defeat, but surprisingly her press conference actually turned out to be a stage to create sensationalism and drama. She hurled allegations like EVM tampering and claimed that EVM tempering is the reason why BJP has won most votes in Muslim majority constituencies.


Besides questioning the integrity of India’s electoral process, she stereotyped the entire Muslim community into one which is always expected to vote in a set way. To avoid the so called ‘voter fraud’ she demanded that Ballot papers be brought back in the electoral process.

She even created elaborate conspiracy theories to substantiate her claims:


Understandably people reacted to Mayawati’s unsportsmanlike comments:


As it turns out she has more demands:


Even journalists panned her for the statements:


Is this the reason she is so nervous?

Social Media reacts to BJP’s mamoth surge, AAP’s demise and more

OpIndia Staff
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Social Media reacts to BJP’s mamoth surge, AAP’s demise and more

Trends for 2017 Assembly elections are live now. In Uttar Pradesh, BJP looks all set to perform better than the wildest expectations, with it hovering above the 300 mark. In Uttarakhand too, BJP looks like forming the government with a 2/3 rd majority. In Punjab, Congress is bursting the AAP bubble with Kejriwal’s party coming a distant second with 25 seats as compared to the Congress’s 75. Goa and Manipur look too close to be called and might be heading towards a hung parliament.

Reactions started pouring early in the morning. The prime focus was on BJP’s surge and AAP’s demise, the party which according to latest figures is yet to open account in Goa. Here are a few reactions which we managed to compile:

The BJP’s UP performance with respect to all the previous elections it has contested:


Turns out, the BJP’s appeal transcended all communities:


Now speculations have started who would be BJP’s CM Candidate


People also made fun of Rahul Gandhi’s entrepreneurship comments:


The alliance in UP which clearly did not work


There were a lot of reactions to AAP’s below par performance:


 


Some pulled out old tweets of Kejriwal which would be a bit embarrassing in today’s context


A reaction to Congress’s victory:


Some reactions for the states which didn’t get a lot of focus:


Some in the opposition gave an astute reaction:


Even AAP’s Ashutosh gave a good reaction, though the context looks a bit misplaced for him:


Even Modi’s usual critics critics conceded:


While we are publishing this article, we are still seeing many interesting reactions. We will update it once the results are declared.

How to interpret the Election results like an enlightened genius

Hemant Bijapurkar
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How to interpret the Election results like an enlightened genius

As there’s not much time left before the assembly election results of 5 states are fully clear. We decided to prep you about the way you should analyse the outcome so that people think of you as an enlightened genius. What is an enlightened genius? Well he is that guy who exhibits a variety of ideologies and thought processes. That is, he is a Right leaning thinker and at the same time also an Adarsh liberal. He is a Libertarian and at the same time also a socialist. He is a honest person and also at the same time an Arvind Kejriwal. So mixing up the above ideologies, here are the ways you can analyse the results:

1. Uttar Pradesh

We got you covered here.

2. Punjab

With the Akali-BJP combine set to falter there are just three scenarios you need to contend with.

If Congress wins:

Credit the victory to Rahul Gandhi. Mention how Congress is not a spent force and still has some mojo left. Say that this will be the turning point for Congress in the run up to the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. Perhaps, Rahul Gandhi has finally come of age? Mention how AAP could have won instead of the Congress if Kejriwal had said he would turn Delhi into Canada in one year. This is also a vote against demonetisation and Modi, hence Modi must resign.

If AAP wins:

Talk about how people in Punjab have rejected the freebie culture as they have voted to bring in a party which has failed to fulfill freebie schemes like free Wi-Fi among others. You can also mention the fact that Non Resident Indians(NRI’s) have had a lot of influence on the elections which is evident from the fact that they have elected a party which has a Non-Resident CM. Comment about how Punjab might be progressing from having a drug menace to having an alcoholic as a menace. This is also a vote against demonetisation and Modi, hence Modi must resign.

If hung assembly:

In this case go into a Adarsh Liberal narrative by stating how the state would now be at the mercy of Narendra Modi. Throw around the phrases like Governor’s rule is a blow to democracy. Mention the word EVM a lot which might insinuate some kind of voter fraud perpetrated by the BJP. This is also a vote against demonetisation and Modi, hence Modi must resign.

3. Goa

If BJP wins:

Well of course the EVMs were rigged. No other way BJP could have won. You can also mention how the Defence Minister Parrikar is in Goa virtually every other weekend, thus BJP has won only because of him. Say the election was fought on local issues and demonetisation and Modi had no bearing on the results.

If Congress wins:

Repeat the lines from Congress winning Punjab. Rahul Gandhi must be brought in to take credit yet again. Mention how communal forces have defeated the BJP. This is also a vote against demonetisation and Modi, hence Modi must resign.

4. Manipur:

First go to the internet and lookup the capital of Manipur. After doing that, randomly approach people after ensuring they are not from Manipur and offer to analyse Manipur’s results. If someone responds negatively, launch into the tirade about how the N-E states don’t get their due.

If BJP wins:

Say that the BJP has transformed itself into a pan Indian party. Comment how at this rate, you now expect the BJP to even form a government in Bhutan. If the recipient laughs and agrees, chide him for harbouring an imperialistic agenda of invading and undermining the sovereignty of a fellow nation. Say the election was fought on local issues and demonetisation and Modi had no bearing on the results.

If Congress wins:

Repaat the Punjab and Goa lines for Congress. Then comment about how people were awed by Rahul Gandhi’s charisma when he professed his wish to see Made in Manipur pineapple juice selling in London. Say that the BJP has failed to transform itself into a pan Indian party. This is also a vote against demonetisation and Modi, hence Modi must resign.

5. Uttarakhand: 

If BJP wins: 

Use the technique of deflection. Even if BJP manages to win Uttarakhand and all states except Punjab, conclude that there is no Modi wave left. Then say if there was, then how come it had failed to impact the important state of Punjab. Say the election was fought on local issues and demonetisation and Modi had no bearing on the results.

If Congress wins:

Channel your euphoria into a streamlined train of thought. Mention how Rahul Gandhi is Prince Hector reborn. Talk about the lack of strong regional leadership of the BJP which prevented it from winning the state. Ensure that all the credit for the victory goes to the Gandhi family and not the incumbent CM Harish Rawat. This is also a vote against demonetisation and Modi, hence Modi must resign.

Three key takeaways before UP election results and one major factor being overlooked by all

Shreyash
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Three key takeaways before UP election results and one major factor being overlooked by all

This is the most interesting day in the election season. Two days after elections and one day before results. Hope, fear, disbelief – it is all there. Tomorrow will be different; it will all look so simple. I took some time off yesterday to take a look at the notes taken during this election season. There are always some moments which prick you, you are not instantly able to decipher these but over time they start to make sense. There are 3 such moments in this season which struck me,

  1. Albatross around the neck moment – There is this story of a monkey which walks beneath a bullock cart and proudly feels that he is the one carrying the cart. The bullocks meanwhile toil hard but have no time to display bravado. INC is the monkey and SP the bullocks in our case. Akhilesh willingly tied a dead weight around his neck. I don’t know whether it was low confidence, pragmatism, recklessness or just a brain fade but giving 105 seats to a party which has no idea of what to do with it defies logic. Nevertheless, Akhilesh is here to stay. If BSP gets an insignificant number of seats this time around, BJP and SP should be the main contenders in UP for some time to come.
  1. The Donald Trump Moment: During the primaries and election campaigning, Trump used barbs against his opponents, eg: Crooked Hillary. Media described them as deplorable predicting his downfall. But as we saw later, they were not just random impromptu ramblings. There was careful analytics based on unstructured data collected from various sources. They identified keywords which would create maximum impact and were used carefully at appropriate locations. When, ‘Kabristan’ and ‘Samshan’ erupted, it gave me a familiar feeling. Turns out it was the same. BJP had carried out 2 detailed surveys in UP to identify pain points. Identified issues were crafted in a strategy and delivered from the highest level.
  1. The Hangover Moment: Something strange happened after the 4th:  BSP, who had been a footnote so far started receiving more attention. There was a spurt of articles reminding one of the silent vote and warning against counting Mayawati out. This, I believe was a hangover of Brexit and US elections -we are so eager to recreate everything that has happened in the West. Much has been written about Trump’s silent vote and our media searching for gladiators found refuge in Mayawati and her hidden vote. But in the case of Trump, apprehensions were backed by solid observations. When opinion polls were conducted in the US, telephonic polls gave Hillary a higher probability of winning as against anonymous online polls. The conclusion was that there is a stigma attached to a Trump voter which makes them hide their preferences. No such observation was revealed here, yet the silent vote story. That the timing of these stories coincided with trends of SP+INC fizzling out was actually a giveaway. In despair, Hope becomes a strategy and we start clutching onto straws.

The UP voter is not silent; he is vocal and has strong opinions. It is this trait perhaps which helps pollsters to gauge ki hawa ka rukh kidhar hai. Here is a quick look at previous UP exit polls,


In all 3 cases, our pollsters predicted the ‘hawa’ correctly but were conservative with number of seats for the winning party. If the past is any indication of the future, we might see another landslide tomorrow

SC issues warrant against controversial HC judge who had alleged corruption in the Judiciary

OpIndia Staff
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SC issues warrant against controversial HC judge who had alleged corruption in the Judiciary

A bailable warrant was today issued against Justice CS Karnan of the Calcutta High Court by the Supreme Court after he had failed to appear in a contempt petition initiated against him because he had made allegations about corruption against certain judges. The case would he heard on 31st March.

The whole issue started when Justice Karnan had written an open letter to the PM dated 23rd January where he had named a list of 20 Judges who he alleged were indulging in corruption.

Needless to say, this allegation without any proof ruffled a lot of feathers and the Supreme Court acted swiftly against the judge. On 8th February a 7 member bench of the Supreme court issued a contempt notice to Justice Karnan and sought a reply from him by 13 February. It also withdrew all the Judicial and administrative work which was assigned to Justice Karnan. This order was a milestone of sorts as for the first time the SC had initiated contempt proceedings against a High Court judge.

The judge though didn’t take the order lying down and wrote a letter to the SC dated 10th February where he vowed of filing a criminal complaint against the Chief Justice of India for allegedly victimizing him (Justice Karnan) on the basis of his caste (Justice Karnan is a Dalit). He then failed to turn up for his contempt proceedings on 13th February for which he was issued a bailable warrant today.

This isn’t the first time Justice Karnan has been in the limelight and to say the least, his tenure as a judge which started in 2009 has been eventful. He alleged victimisation at the hand of few judges because of his caste and had written to the National Commission for Scheduled Castes (NCSC) in 2011 complaining of the same.

In 2013 he was the same Judge who had passed the controversial judgement about a woman being able to claim the social status as a man’s wife if both had engaged in pre-marital sex and marriage was promised to the woman. He also ended up issuing a gag order which prohibited any criticism of the judgement.

In 2014 he barged into a courtroom where a PIL was being heard about selection of judges and started arguing against unfair and biased selection of Judges.

In the same year, 20 of his fellow judges had sent a memorandum to the CJI asking for his transfer as they claimed he was difficult to work with.

In 2015 he had alleged dummy cases were being assigned to him and announced that he would be going on a long leave. He was transferred to the Calcutta HC in 2016 by the SC after the Madras HC approached it regarding an allegation by Justice Karnan that the collegium system preferred high caste candidates.

The rise and rise of ISIS in India

OpIndia Staff
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The rise and rise of ISIS in India

On 7th March 2016, 10 people were injured in an IED blast on-board the Bhopal Ujjain Express on 7th March. One of the suspects who had refused to surrender was finally killed in the early hours of Wednesday. The biggest shock about the attack came on 8th morning when MP CM Shivraj Singh Chouhan claimed in MP state assembly that the conspiracy was pre-planned and that the assailants who carried out the blast were influenced by the ideology perpetrated by the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria or ISIS.

The ISIS angle to the whole story is growing, with reports coming out which claim that the bombs recovered from the accused had ‘ISIS-we are in India’ inscribed on them. It was also reported that the terrorists had even clicked a photo of the pipe bomb they had placed in the train and sent it to Syria. The MP police further arrested 6 more members of the ISIS module from whom 8 pistols and 1 ISIS flag was recovered. 4 other members are believed to be on the run. The motive behind the train blast is being reported as a practice attack in order to test the effectiveness of the explosives. The members of the ISIS cell were planning to carry out serial blasts at the shrine of Sufi Saint Haji Waris Ali Shah in Dewa Sharif, UP on 27th March.

This is the first time the name of ISIS has cropped up in a terror attack in this country. The warning signs about ISIS and its poisonous ideology gaining a foothold in this country have been out there for quite some time with various instances of people in this country leaving for ISIS controlled territories, modules getting busted, flags getting raised, so called lone wolfs getting intercepted being out there in the public domain. Here are a few key instances of the terror group’s influence in this country in reverse chronological order:

  • In January 2017 a temple in Himachal Pradesh was defaced with ISIS coming soon signs and similar slogans were smeared in that Army area which falls under the Solan district of the state.
  • In July 2016 the Kerala CM had announced that 21 youths from the state had left the country in order to join ISIS in Afghanistan. One of those youths was killed in a drone strike this February.
  • In June of 2016 a Hyderabad module of the ISIS was busted by the NIA leading to 11 people getting arrested. Arms, explosives and 15 lakh in cash was seized from the suspects. They reportedly wanted to carry out attacks in Hyderabad to proclaim the arrival of ISIS in the city. The true magnitude of the problem was reported in this NYT piece and this instance also somewhat busted the myth of ‘lone wolf’ attacks. As it turns out, for 17 months before the module getting busted, the main kingpin Mohammed Ibrahim Yazdani was in contact with one of the most influential ISIS recruiters named  Abu Issa al-Amriki via the internet using a variety of apps which they changed at regular intervals. This contact with Amriki not just supplied Yazdani all the ingredients down to the bullets but also aided in the vetting of the new members. The group’s virtual agent organized the delivery of weapons as well as the precursor chemicals used to make explosives by directing the Hyderabad men to hidden pickup spots. These virtual contacts also acted as confidants and coaches who incited the recruits to embrace violence leading people to term such association as remote control attacks. Amriki was killed in April 2016 when a bomb hit his apartment in Syria.
  • In February 2016 a pro ISIS cleric Abdus Sami Qasmi was arrested by the NIA for delivering provocative and inflammatory speeches in favor of the Caliphate.
  • The anti-national activities inside JNU in February 2016 had also reportedly caught the eye of some ISIS recruits who wanted to infiltrate some of the subsequent protests calling for freeing jailed Kanhaiya Kumar and burn vehicles plus oil tankers under the garb of prostesting.
  • Apparently the profession of journalism too didn’t remain untouched. In August 2015 a man who claimed to be a journalist was intercepted in Delhi after he had put up social media posts, professing his intention to join the Islamic state. At the same time, there were reports of another journalist from Kerala joining ISIS. He though didn’t directly go from India, around 8 months prior to that report he had taken a job in the Gulf and from there gone to Syria.
  • Jammu & Kashmir, the place in this country most associated with radicalization and dissent has also seen fair share of ISIS sympathizers. ISIS flags had first appeared in the state in June 2014. Since then there were instances of flags flurried after Friday prayers. In June 2015 when VHP people burned a flag of ISIS, the incident triggered protests in J&K because the flag had Shahada ascribed on it.
  • In April 2015, the first ISIS module was intercepted in the city of Ratlam in MP after the arrest of 5 reported operatives.
  • One of the earliest signs of growing ISIS influence in India were found in December 2014 when a Hyderabad youth was arrested for running a prominent ISIS supporting handle on Twitter. The handle named ShamiWitness was being run by a Mehdi Masroor Biswas who worked as an executive in some Indian conglomerate and had been living a dual life. Apparently before the ISIS thing came to the forefront, Shami was described as an activist by The Telegraph and The Daily Mail.
  • In May 2014, it was reported that 4 youths mostly from Kalyan, Maharashtra had traveled to Iraq on 23rd May 2014 to join the ISIS. It was reported that three of them were engineering students. One of the youths named Arif Majeed was killed in Iraq sometime in August of that year. It was also reported that when the youths reached Iraq they saw 13 Indians already working for the Islamic state.

Apart from these there are other similar instances of people getting intercepted for ISIS related activities, it remains to be seen if we get to see further arrests in the coming days.

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