Friday, November 15, 2024
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Pakistan has started a war, and it is winning it. But you can fight back

It was in October of 2016 that I came across a Pakistani Parliament (Senate) committee report on the “Policy guidelines in the view of the latest situation developing between India and Pakistan”.

It is seldom that I find myself at a loss for words. I did that day, partly because I was amused at the juvenile ranting in that committee report which sounded like the members were a bunch of enraged 15-year-olds angry about India stealing their cookie, and partly because as I read along, I realised that Pakistan had decided to fight the war through a fifth column in India, and it appeared to be winning.

A fifth column is basically any group of people who undermine a larger group – such as a nation – from within, usually in favour of an enemy group. The committee report of the Pakistan senate juxtaposed with the narrative being set at home suggests that it’s happening exactly the way Pakistan wanted.

I’ll give you 3 major examples:

1. In the entire report, a sore point with Pakistan that stood out was India invoking the gross human right violations in Balochistan. Here’s one such excerpt:

Pakistan's propaganda for Kashmir issue
No Balochistan please – Pakistan’s wish is command for?

So Pakistan does not want India to talk about Balochistan. Coincidentally, the same “suggestion” was given to Modi by many. Starting from opposition members like Salman Khurshid and many journalists who turned into foreign affairs experts in a matter of minutes.

One such article by a certain Ashok Swain went as far as to call the raking up of Balochistan, “diplomatic belligerence” and a “jumla”. He went on to say:

“Pakistan is very much aware of India’s limitations. By playing the Balochistan card, Modi is not going to deter Pakistan from meddling in Kashmir now or in the future. Balochistan only provides Modi with a diversionary plank to hoodwink his supporters at home about his imaginary 56-inch chest.”

and

“When one’s own house has caught fire and it’s spreading, prudency lies in not throwing fireballs at the neighbor’s house, even if you blame his candle for your fire, but in doing your best to put out your own fire first.”

Strange coincidence that what irks Pakistan has irked the commentariat in India. Pakistan wants no discussion around Balochistan, the Indian commentariat also argues against it.

2. Pakistan’s idée fixe with Kashmir is not new. It is thus not surprising that in this manifesto of hybrid warfare, their naked obsession was plain as the nose on your face. Relevant excerpt:

Pakistani propaganda on Kashmir
Narrative that Pakistan wants. Where have you read the same?

At the first glance, this excerpt is not different from the usual ramblings that Pakistan indulges in. Upon closer examination, one notices how its fifth column is building a narrative for them on our home turf. Let’s take the proposed “Kashmir narrative” by Pakistan point by point:

  1. The media’s and oppositions support to elements like Umar Khalid and his entourage screaming “Aazadi” slogans directly helps Pakistan in building its narrative of “Kashmir’s right to self-determination”. I am reminded of a speech made by Umar Khalid, in which he says that freedom in India is not possible without supporting the aspirations of the people for self-determination which can also mean “freedom from India”. It is indeed reductionist to call these elements merely “ant-national”. They seem to be a part of Pakistan’s vital fifth column against India.
  2. When Pakistan talks about “highest population to soldier ratio”, I am reminded of all the home-grown articles that peddled the dangerous narrative of revoking AFSPA, all of which didn’t fail to remind us of this ratio.
  3. “Prisoners and wounded have certain rights” they say. Firstly, it’s quite rich when it comes from a country that is not only responsible for generations being wiped out in Balochistan, but also systematic elimination of minorities in Pakistan. Secondly, I am reminded of all those endless debates about pellet guns that were “blinding and wounding innocent civilians”. I wonder then, is Pakistan’s fifth column here in India helping Pakistan build baseless “atrocity literature”?
  4. “Pakistan will pull troops employed to fight war against terror” sound laughable, but it is indirect threat to USA, whom Pakistan has been fooling by pretending to fight against terror and extracting millions of dollars in return. To make this fake fight against terror appear real, Pakistan needs a narrative that it is also a “victim of terrorism”. How many times have you heard that? And from whom?
  5. The fifth and last part is even more laughable, but sinister. Pakistan would clearly not talk of Islamic radicalisation taking place in Kashmir, which is being actively orchestrated by Pakistan and people who follow their ideology of Islamofascim and two-nation theory. Their case is helped if one ignores role of Pakistan and the Islamist ideology and something else is peddled as the reason of “radicalisation of Kashmir youth”.

This is exactly what is being peddled through strings of op-eds being churned out. In one such article, JNU professor Kamal Mitra Chenoy blames the Indian state, the Armed forces and everything other than Pakistan or the radical Islam, over why the unrest refuses to die down.

It would have been deeply laughable if not so tragic and sinister when Ram Guha, who is presented as erudite historian in our television shows, goes on to blame Dadri incident for violence and radicalisation in Kashmir. Entire Kashmir problem is blamed on Hindu Right Wing, and Ram Guha says that “even if Pakistan stops exporting terror, we will still have problems in Kashmir”. Now go back to the fifth point in Pakistan’s Kashmir narrative.

Ram Guha's views that are in line with what Pakistan wants to hear
Alternative history by Ram Guha. Subtle way of saying, Pakistan is not responsible.

Maybe Ram Guha is not a historian but a sci-fi writer who thinks Jihadists, who massacred Hindus in 1990s and carried out ethnic cleansing of the Kashmir valley, had time traveled to post-Modi India to record some videos.

Ram Guha’s article is not in isolation. An article written by Prem Shankar Jha goes on to suggest that Pakistan doesn’t have its eyes set on Kashmir – it’s an idea that RSS is fixated with. He writes:

“Unfortunately every single thing that the Modi government is doing in Kashmir is only exacerbating the tension between Pakistan and India. The BJP’s policy makers and their RSS overlords, are fixated on the idea that Pakistan is ravening at the mouth to swallow Kashmir. So it is taking advantage of the BJP’s ascent to power to stoke Kashmiri separatism, using paid stone pelters as its principal weapon.”

You see – it is the Modi government that is the culprit. We are being told to believe that “Pakistan is not ravening at the mouth to swallow Kashmir”.

As was pointed out by an article on OpIndia.com earlier, this narrative is the most pernicious and sinister, as it builds a Pakistan-friendly ground for another partition of India. It gives clean chit to Pakistan and Islamism.

3. It is common knowledge that Pakistan has historically, actively, tried to sabotage internal peace and security of India in order to implement its nefarious plans. But this this time, they declared it in the senate report:

Pakistan propaganda against Modi and Hinduism
Pakistan’s strategy to divide India by exploiting the fault lines.

I think enough has been said about how the Media and the politicians dangerously played with national security and peace, when they notoriously played up not only law and order issues in a communal manner, but sometimes created communal angles from thin air where none existed. An article by Mr. Ashutosh Muglikar had analysed it way back in 2016.

To Pakistan’s dismay, most of the propaganda via their fifth column didn’t have long term impacts. I imagine the frustration of failing to spark unrest in India was immense, and in a last ditch effort, Pakistan turned to try the same tricks on the Armed forces, the last bastion standing, untouched by fault lines.

The fifth column has been perhaps trying its best to divide the Indian Army on two plants. One, by ensuring that the citizenry start doubting achievements of the Armed Forces, and second, by dividing the Armed Forces from within.

Attempts to divide the Armed Forces is not new. But it has gained a feverish pitch in the last two years. From aspersions cast on the Armed Forces during the “terror boat” incident, to asking the Armed forces to provide proof of surgical strikes. From creating atrocity literature about “Indian army excesses” to peddling the line that the Armed Forces are fallible and deserve to be questioned.

From using the “but our soldiers are fighting at the border” mockingly to saying “our soldiers signed up to die”. We even heard journalists declare a soldier a “deserter” who crossed over to Pakistan due to “grievances”. Reality was that he had inadvertently stepped over and now back in India. Irresponsible reporting based on a WhatsApp forward most likely a Pakistani propaganda.

We recently saw a hideous case of criminal negligence by a portal called The Quint where they carried out a sting operation on an unsuspecting Jawan that lead to his suicide. A coordinated effort to create dissent among the Jawans by playing up the Sahayak system as an evil construct. There seems to be a systematic attempt to demoralise the Armed Forces and shake the citizen’s confidence in them thereby dragging the professional ethical institution of the Indian Armed Forces to the same level as that of the Pakistani army.

Congress had to tried to once divide the Army on religious lines by calling for the religious census of the Armed Forces which was thankfully thwarted. A renewed effort seems to be taking steam. We read endless articles about the travesty of Muslim soldiers not being allowed to keep a beard. The myths of the same were dismantled here, but not before it became a national narrative of communalism in the Armed Forces. There was also an incident where “Cobrapost” used a 5 year old video to demonise the Indian Army.

I could go on listing the numerous incidents where our home grown fifth column has tried to not only politicise but also demonise the Indian Army. It is therefore evident that the hybrid warfare has now turned to creating fault lines within the Armed Forces having failed to divide the nation on such lines.

It is thus unmistakable that India has entered a phase of composite warfare where risks to our sovereignty and peace don’t only come from external aggression at the border or by proxy war sponsored by enemy nation, but by activating elements in India who either work for Pakistan or sympathise with their “cause”. The senate report even ended with the emphasis to restart “track 2” talks which historically undermines the authority of the elected government and their actions.

The war, has reached the doorstep of every citizen. The government, Armed forces and intelligence agencies are not the only key members in this tussle. Every Indian is. It is therefore incumbent upon the citizens to differentiate between news and propaganda. To resist the urge to be sucked into the “aman fairytale” that might sound fantastical, but is perhaps the most potent weapon to weaken India’s resolve.

If we don’t wake up, we will lose this war. And then finally that placard will make sense – Pakistan didn’t … War did.

Some Hilarious moments from Ram Jethmalani’s questioning of Arun Jaitley in Kejriwal defamation matter

Over the past two days, Senior Advocate and former BJP member, Ram Jethmalani cross-examined Arun Jaitley in a civil defamation case filed by the Finance Minister against Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal. The case relates to 2015, when Kejriwal and some other AAP leaders had alleged administrative irregularities and mishandling of finances of DDCA by Jaitley. Jaitley had denied all the allegations and filed civil and criminal defamation cases against Kejriwal and the other leaders. Jethmalani was representing Kejriwal in the matter.

On day one, the Court rejected 11 out of the 52 questions posed by Jethmalani to Jaitley. On day two, 2 of the 19 questions posed were rejected. The Registrar did not entertain any questions that were irrelevant to the outcome of the case, or that were already a matter of record and any questions which relied on Jaitley’s personal opinion. Here are some interesting questions and more interesting responses to the same:

(In all cases, the question is being asked by Mr Ram Jethmalani and the answer is given by Mr Arun Jaitley. In certain cases, the court has intervened)

A question to test knowledge of English perhaps?

If you don’t get the answer you want, keep repeating the question?

Time to play dictionary-dictionary again?

What’s life without some irrelevant spice?

Media houses also reported this question-answer back and forth, but it was missing from the transcripts:

Referring to Jaitley’s 2014 Lok Sabha election loss, Jethmalani rubbed it in saying a person who has lost an election should not talk about reputation. “What reputation are you talking about. You lost the election in 2014,” the senior lawyer said.

Jaitley hit back at Jethmalani in the same vein targeting his client Arvind Kejriwal. “Even Kejriwal lost in 2014. Elections are fought over party’s policies and not over one’s personal reputations,” Jaitley said.

Legal minds on social media were scathing in their commentary:





The cross-examination is now expected to continue on May 15 or May 17. May we see some more entertaining sparring between the two legal brains.

A soldier asks : Viral videos of army men – who benefits?

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The Indian Army is a force which is over 13 Lakh strong, with its units located across the length and breadth of the country, from major metropolitan cities, to the remotest corners of country. A large portion of it, at any given time, is deployed in extremely hostile environments, climatically and / or made so by deployment to counter external or internal forces acting against the sovereignty and integrity of the country.

Besides carrying out its core functions – vigil, operations, and training for preparedness – it also is more or less geared to cater for its own logistics. And whenever a disaster strikes, it is also called upon in succour of citizens and property affected, whether by earthquake, flood or tsunami. And even its bitterest critics can’t deny that it has been able to deliver each and every time – in wars, counter insurgency or disaster relief, our army has been successful in meeting the challenges thrown at it.

It’s hard to imagine that such a huge organisation, carrying out complex functions of such multitude in scope and scale, can do so successfully without any room for shortcomings. Law of probability dictates that there would be errors, omissions and instances of mismanagement. Yet, what matters is the existence of mechanisms to deal with such flaws, to enforce accountability amongst those responsible, learn from the experience and continue to function with undiminished if not enhanced effectiveness.

Similarly, it is natural for a percentage of people forming such a huge ecosystem to have complaints and grievances, against the organisation or against individuals in the organisation. Again, what matters is the robustness of built-in mechanisms for redressal of such grievances. The track record of the armed forces has been praiseworthy on both these accounts. It would be impossible to continue functioning as an effective organisation with people willing to risk their limbs and lives every day in the absence of this.

Yet, of late we are witnessing videos by a handful of armed forces personnel, airing grievances, appear in social media. Mainstream media has also taken cue from these and tried to derive maximum mileage out of each such instance, sensationalizing the story and adding their two bits worth. The videos are taken at face value, without investigation, and are held as representative of the larger scheme of things.

The initial response of the lay observers to the videos highlighting grievances such as poor quality of food or exploitation of soldiers in menial work is naturally one of indignation, since the jawan commands the love and respect of common people. They’re justifiably outraged at the apparent plight of the soldiers who are braving hardships and risking their lives, yet have to reach out in apparent helplessness in this way.

However, what they don’t realize is that they’re seeing the facts from a one-sided perspective of the alleged victim. Events and circumstances leading up to the state of affairs are often glossed over, even misrepresented, by the protagonist in order to gain sympathy.

A section of the media, ever hungry for eyeballs and willing to sensationalize issues, plays a highly irresponsible role in further flaming the outrage. While common viewers on social media can be pardoned for going along with the narrative of such videos, responsible journalists can’t.

It’s their job to first ascertain the veracity of the claims and investigate the other side of the story before propagating it. For example, in the latest of such cases, a news channel not only televised the video posted by one such jawan, but also tracked him down to a transit camp in Chandigarh and broadcast his interview.


The facts of the case, as released by the army are as under –

So, the jawan in question had been punished for other offences, including being Absent Without Leave and refusal to carry out the duties he was enlisted for (he was recruited as a housekeeper in the medical corps, with duties including cleaning bedpans of patients).

However, it seems that since the issue of sahayaks has been in news of late, he decided to falsely allege that he was being harassed for refusal to function as an officer’s sahayak. The news channel did not even once verify if he was really a sahayak.

The airing of such unverified allegations by national television channels is extremely damaging to the overall fabric of the army, as it undermines the chain of command of the forces, and also serves to cause disaffection between officers and men. In fact, these are exactly the things that an enemy would want, and the media is knowingly or unwittingly doing the job for them.

What citizens must realize is that the army has a functional, robust system of grievance redressal, from the grassroots unit level right up to the Chief of Army Staff. Commanding Officer of every unit has an orderly room procedure once a week, wherein any jawan can meet him and bring out any grievance. Once a month the CO mandatorily holds a Sainik Sammelan, which is like an open house with all ranks in attendance. Here, any soldier has the freedom to bring any issue to the notice of the CO before the whole unit. The proceedings of these sammelans are recorded in a register, including the points raised by jawans, and these are periodically inspected by higher headquarters. If the complainant feels that the CO has not been fair or has been unable to solve his problem, he can file a formal complaint in writing, called ‘Redressal of Grievances’ which, depending on the issue, may go right up to the Chief. Besides, the Chief also recently shared a Whatsapp number of a cell created at his office to look into such complaints.

It’s obvious that there are ample avenues for someone genuinely wronged to seek justice within the system. The trouble is that the rigors of military service, with its gruelling routine, harsh discipline, and strict adherence to procedures, themselves sometimes appear as oppression to some. So a jawan who returns late from leave or refuses to do his authorised duty and is punished, feels that he is being wronged. Obviously the system would not offer any redressal to such cases.

Media – mainstream and social – have come to be seen as a means for instant justice by such people. However, neither they, nor people who sympathise with them based on limited knowledge, realize that though they may get their moments in the limelight, such posts will only add to their problems rather than solving them. In fact, since an act like that amounts to bypassing the command channel and posting about service matters on social media, it opens them up for further disciplinary action. The media, although aware of this, still doesn’t hesitate to hunt them down and air their stories, heedless of the consequences on the subject of their story.

Such incidents are thus harmful to the individual as well as the army as an organisation. The only beneficiaries are the media, to whom it’s just another news cycle sensationalised before the next outrage comes along. The other beneficiaries are of course, our adversaries, whose work of psychological warfare and lowering the morale of the army is cheerfully being carried out by the media.

Tulsi Gabbard, first Hindu lawmaker in US, blasts CNN for negative portrayal of Hinduism

CNN is broadcasting a series titled “Believer” that is hosted by a person named Reza Aslan, often termed as an apologist for Islamism. Reza, who had once attacked American comedian and commentator Bill Maher for allegedly stereotyping Muslims based on extremist elements, has now been accused of doing the same to Hinduism through his show on CNN.

The show attracted criticism in the last few days after people noted gross manipulation and misinformation being peddled by Reza. Apart from picking up a mystical and atypical sect like Aghoris to broad-brush a plural belief like Hinduism, the show invented facts such as terming Varanasi as “city of the dead” and defining Ghats (river banks with steps) as “crematorium ground”.

Reza and CNN also made wrong and sensationalist claims about being the first to shoot about Aghoris at a particular place, whereas many documentary makers have done the same earlier.

Now US lawmaker Tulsi Gabbard, who represents the Democratic Party and is the first Hindu to be elected to the US Congress, has criticised the show for stereotyping Hindus at a time when there have been reports of hate crimes against Indians.

In a series of tweets, Tulsi accused CNN and Reza Aslan of reinforcing stereotypes about Hindus and Hinduism through the show. She also claimed that the show virtually painted entire Hindu community as “cannibals” and that Reza was behaving as if he was touring a zoo. She feared that the show will increase Hinduphobia and people’s misunderstanding about Hindus.

It remains to be seen if CNN and Reza Aslan decide to address these concerns, or they will accuse Tulsi Gabbard of being a “Hindu fundamentalist” and “bigot”, as usually happens with anyone who speaks up for Hindus or Hinduism.

DU professor with Maoist links convicted for waging war against India

G N Saibaba, a professor of English in Ram Lal Anand College of the Delhi University, was today sentenced to life imprisonment by a Gadchiroli sessions court for waging war against India for his alleged Maoist links and involvement in anti-national activities.

He, along with JNU student Hem Mishra and former journalist Prashant Rahi, and three couriers were provided with this sentence.  They were convicted under the section 13, 18, 20, 38 and 39 of the Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act. One convict Vijay Tirki was sentenced to 10 yrs in jail. The public prosecutor had demanded life imprisonment on the basis of section 20 of that act which states that

Any person who is a member of a terrorist gang or a terrorist organisation, which is involved in terrorist act, shall be punishable with imprisonment for a term which may extend to imprisonment for life, and shall also be liable to fine.

G N Saibaba was first arrested in May 2014 on charges of being a member of the banned CPI-Maoists plus providing logistics and carrying out recruitment for them. He was then provided bail for three months on 30th June 2015 in view of his worsening health. He was given bail again in August 2016, this time by the Supreme Court against the wishes of the Maharashtra Government, which thought freeing Saibaba would render him free to propagate his views and brainwash students. In a report published in February 2016 it was reported that Saibaba had recruited as many as four JNU students to carry out Maoist related activists. Incidentally these students also belonged to the Democratic Students union (DSU), of which JNU student Umar Khalid is also a member.

The biggest form of concern after this conviction is the confirmation of infiltration of left-wing terrorists in our educational institutions and the media which gives them a wide platform to poison the thought process of the masses under the garb of freedom of expression.

Interestingly, the aforementioned events were predicted in the movie Buddha in a traffic jam, where a professor in one of India’s premier institutes was a closet Maoist and aided their efforts by indirectly propagating their ideology and recruiting students whom he found were knowingly or unknowingly receptive towards his cause.

Almost predictably that movie was shunned and severely criticised by the so-called liberal, intellectual and tolerant brigade, and the creator of the movie was Vivek Agnihotri made an outcast for not following the unwritten norm of never touching certain ‘uncomfortable’ subjects.

The seven percent syndrome – understanding the latest GDP numbers

The recent announcement of third quarter GDP growth rate figures at 7% by the CSO had stirred up a hornet’s nest among those who have been ardent critics of demonetisation, and who have been expecting a big dent in the growth figures post demonetisation.

So much so, even many eminent persons started casting aspersions on the CSO and insinuated that the numbers were “cooked up”, or even personally directed and stage-managed by Prime Minister Modi and his small team of advisory that worked on demonetisation to showcase that demonetisation indeed had no effect on the economy.

Such was their disappointment that the numbers didn’t suit their narrative, even people like Ramachandra Guha went on to quote newspaper articles that had even glaring arithmetic mistakes  in the difference between the original and revised estimates, to push their agenda.

The ‘alternative maths’ (read about this incident in detail here)

The problem with many of these people is that, their pathological hatred towards one man, Narendra Modi, and his dispensation is such that, at any cost they want to make any of his moves look like a total failure and in that excitement to push their agenda they often fail to see the reality, and paint a picture as though every institution in this country, and every number that comes out of this government are all lies, micro-managed and promoted by Modi and his team, rather than taking a honest and objective look at it.

If one would carefully look at the numbers and how the CSO does the growth estimation, they have been consistent and had considered the impact of demonetisation too in the Gross Value Added (GVA) number in the GDP, which shows a sharp decline at 6.7% compared to 7.8% in FY’16 as per this report. It is the improvement in Indirect taxes that has made it healthier. Besides for every drop in certain sectoral growth, there has been rise in some other, like cement output decrease vs steel output increase, two wheeler sales decline vs agri output increase etc. Also the decline in bank credit does not mean decline in all credit, as there definitely was an increase in borrowings from bond market, leave alone other private credit arrangements between parties to ease out the situation. So selectively picking and choosing only those data that suit one’s narrative is at best being so naive and at worst being so prejudicial.

Fundamentally they miss this core point (or choose to ignore it) that demonetisation is a smart political move first, like how many many people do consider including such economists like Swaminathan A Aiyar in his latest article, with stated and unstated political objectives or goals. The fact that this was not a RBI initiated directive or Finance Ministry or CEA initiated, but directly from the highest political leadership of the country itself is self-evident. While the stated goals have been repeatedly articulated by the PM himself, the unstated could be only inferred by seeing how badly it has affected other opposition parties (either from the uproar they make like in the case of TMC, BSP etc or through the results of elections in terms of who have been badly affected). In any case, the easiest way to measure the success of it as a political move is election results and so far all civic body election results in different parts of the country are giving a thumbs up to it. We will also wait for the big ones this weekend to know how those too go.

From economic point of view, we need more data before we can judge the full impact of this measure, like how much of black money was actually collected/declared through this period, how does that fare against any other losses (in jobs, GDP etc temporary vs long term) and over a period of time only can fully ascertain the effects, as both the effects of tax due to black money collection and the GDP and such cannot be judged over one or two quarters.

One has to also see how the informal economy (cash transactions that were not part of the data points in the formal GDP numbers) has been affected as this measure would have created some cataclysmic changes in that. That the parallel informal economy will at least partially migrate to mainstream (specifically the No:2 trade ), would only improve the overall GDP numbers.

Besides, the deposit surge in banks, and any possible interest rate drop due to that and many such impacts need to be seen coherently. Hopefully one could get a clearer picture earliest by middle of next year only to assess the full impact. So any opinion on this, in favour or against it from an economic point of view would be too premature now as something of this scale and size has never been attempted by anyone anywhere in the world.

There are other benefits due to this like how this had brought down insurgency, to some extent terror/hawala money (including the ones on the eastern and north eastern border), how it has given a shock to the system and made people quickly migrate into a non-cash medium of exchange for most of their transactions, including a possible rapid digitisation of rural India thanks to this, how many State Utilities like UPSEB and Discoms benefited (at least one time) in collecting their arrears and such (see report).

Therefore viewing this event through a very narrow and limited perspective and concluding anything based on one quarter number would be myopic and prejudicial given the impact of such a measure that is unprecedented by its sheer size and scale. In any case if one were to ask the people on the street, what is their expectation of the GDP growth rates, the majority would say anywhere between 6 to 8%. And that is what the most authentic reports by the best source on this which is the CSO, also has to say on this – exactly at the midway between 6 and 8%. Except that, if the CSO had said it was closer to 6, the same critics (who are both real and social media economics experts) would have said, “we told you so!”

UP Elections – an analysis of mainstream commentary around political parties

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Like most political enthusiasts, I have followed Uttar Pradesh elections closely. But my primary source of information is through someone else’s pen rather than first hand experiences.

To make most of it, I kept a track of keywords used over the last month by different analysts to try to make sense of what is happening out there. I shortlisted around 75 articles from various publications such as Times of India, Hindustan Times, Firstpost, Rediff, DNA, Indian Express, News18, The Hindu, LiveMint, etc. and even tracked responses from associated commentators on Twitter. All these articles and commentary was posted between February 11 to March 6.

So as we approach the end of a very colourful election season, here is what the scene looks for the major contenders. I have created a word cloud for every party, which shows the frequently used terms appearing for that party in these articles and comments.

I’ve also added a quick summary around those terms (which is summary of the general commentary by the mainstream media; not my views except where explicitly mentioned), which are major influencing factors if we go by the commentary during the assembly elections.

BJP (Bhartiya Janta Party):

Word cloud
Terms that dominate when discussing BJP’s prospects

8. Baniya Vote, Demonitisation – This section of the electorate was severely affected by demonitisation. However, there is not enough clarity if demonitisation has had any negative impact on BJP in this election. If Maharashtra and Odisha are any indication, the impact seems to be negligible.

7. Local leadership – BJP does not have any local leadership or a Chief Ministerial candidate. They are severely dependent on Modi’s charisma to take them through.

6. Varanasi – BJP is nervous in Varanasi. Ticket distribution has created disturbances and disinterest amongst the cadre. Modi’s rallies have calmed nerves but impact will be known only on March 11.

5. Jat Vote – Amit Shah’s last minute efforts to meet Jat leaders and salvage some vote share does not seem to have helped. BJP suffered in the first phase.

4. Brahmin Vote, Core Vote, OBC Vote, Dalit Vote – BJP’s core vote remains intact. There is a definite Brahmin vote shift towards BJP. Due to careful candidate selection non-yadav OBC and non-jatav Dalit vote is also shifting towards BJP.

3. Polarise, Samshan, Kabristan – Middle phases of the UP election were the most acrimonious and ‘Samshan’ and ‘Kabristan’ echoed for quite some time. This moment polarised the already polarised atmosphere.

2. No Wave, Main Contender – Even though there is no wave this time around, one point all commentators agree upon is that BJP is the main contender in most of the seats. The depth of BJP’s footprint gives them a clear advantage over other parties.

1. Modi – Narendra Modi is the fulcrum around which BJP’s wheel revolves. People remember Modi’s unkept promises which are in sharp contrast to Akhilesh who is seen as someone who has delivered. However Modi is seen as a hardworking administrator and the electorate is willing to give him another chance.

Congress-SP (Samajwadi Party) alliance:

op-ed analysis
Words used when talking about Congress-SP in Uttar Pradesh

7. Gadha – People have a soft corner for the PM and Akhilesh’s ‘Gadha’ remark has not gone down well with the electorate. It explains why Akhilesh was not willing to stretch this fight further. This could be the turning point of this election.

6. Appease – Perception matters more than reality. BJP has successfully been able to convince people that SP is an appeasement party bending rules for Yadavs and Muslims.

5. Reverse Polarisation – Overt dependency on Muslim vote has clearly caused a reverse Hindu polarisation in BJP’s favour. This is one of the biggest factors along with muslim vote split and it will be interesting to see how SP and BSP react in 2019.

4. Coalition – Coalition is described by most analysts as hasty and uneasy. 105 seats are too much for the Congress. Bonhomie between Rahul and Akhilesh is good for PR but has not percolated to the cadre. Friendly fights on many constituencies have further confused the cadre.

3. Congress – Congress is the weak link and it is just not able to transfer votes to SP. Priyanka and Sonia are missing from much of action, which is again not helping the Congress and they are on shaky ground even in Amethi and Rai Bareilly. Also SP cadre is not too enthusiastic to canvas on seats given to Congress.

2. Local Connect, Strategists, Rebels – SP’s chief strategists are missing from war rooms and also from the campaign. This has dented SP’s local connect. Party Rebels who sided with Shivpal and also from the 105 seats given to Congress are a major roadblock.

1. Akhilesh – Brand Akhilesh is powerful. He is popular, known to be pro-development and is perceived as someone who has delivered on promises. At the moment, he is the only one who can breach the gap between victory and defeat for SP.

BSP (Bahujan Samaj Party):

Word cloud for BSP
Comparatively, BSP has received less media attention and space.

3. Muslim Vote – BSP struggled in the initial phases but has picked some Muslim vote in later phases. Whether this is some momentum or a careful strategy by Amit Shah to divide votes will only be known post March 11.

2. Core Vote – Mayawati’s core vote is intact. However, she is struggling to get the incremental vote. Additionally non-jatav dalits are looking at BJP as an option.

1. Silent Vote, Don’t Write Off – These terms are associated with BSP again and again. This ‘Silent Vote’ might be a real force or just a hedge against the US election kind of a verdict used by analysts. Personally, I feel the expectation of a large silent vote borders more on hope than sound observations. BSP does not have much to promise to the voters and are also facing a severe resource crunch.

***

I leave it upon the readers to derive any conclusion whether this commentary is in line with what they expect. We anyway will get to know on March 11, how much of it was based on sound observation or plain kite flying.

Footnote

BJP alliance won 43% of the total vote in 2014 elections. In comparison, SP+INC and BSP won 29% and 19% respectively. This is in sharp contrast to Bihar where Mahagathbandhan (sum of INC+JDU+RJD) had 44% as compared to NDA’s 38% in LS14. The fact that UP is a 3 horse race, accentuates the vote differences even further. This was always BJP’s election to lose.

Two of the oft repeated words in my analysis are ‘Badlav’ and ‘Mauka’. UP is yearning for ‘Badlav’ and the most probable candidate who will get the ‘Mauka’ seems to be Modi’s BJP.

Case against journalist for carrying out sting operation leading to Jawan’s death

Lance Naik Roy Mathew who was working as a sahayak (helper) in the Devlali Cantonment in Maharashtra disappeared on 25th February and was then found dead on 2nd March in an abandoned barrack in his cantonment; he is believed to have hanged himself.

His disappearance came a day after The Quint carried a sting operation on the sahayak system in the army, in which he featured. We had reported how the so called sting operation was not at all needed as all the facts about the sahayak system were already in the public domain. Later reports claimed how the Journalist covering the incident had interviewed Mathew without him knowing the fact that he was being recorded and that the recordings of the same even gave away his real identity.

This seemed to have scared Mathew who thought he would get into trouble with his superiors, which led to him taking the extreme step, even though the army put out a press release stating there was no question of an inquiry getting ordered against him.

This malicious carelessness of the journalist and the media house has prompted Ankit Gupta, the President of an NGO named Citizen4Forces to file a complaint against Poonam Aggarwal, the journalist, for abetment of suicide, abetment of desertion of a soldier, causing death by negligence, mischief, and also committing an offence under the Official  Secrets Act. This complaint is addressed to the Commissioner of police Delhi.

The NGO, founded in 2011, works to assist the armed forces and highlight the sacrifices carried out by them. They also organise various events in support of the armed forces and also organise discussions about the issues which plague the security of the country.

Ankit Gupta, the President of the NGO, mentioned in his complaint that the journalist had entered the Army Cantonment wearing a secret camera, which in itself was a violation of Army laws and of the Official Secrets Act. He also claimed that the journalist had edited Mathew’s statement so as to make it overtly sensational. The complaint then reiterated the chain of events which culminated in the unfortunate death of Mathew.

He requested the Commissioner to take note of his complaint and take strict legal action against the journalist so as to serve a deterrent against such form of journalism. He also requested for an FIR to be filed based on his complaint and also urged an investigation in the alleged offences some of which according to him were non-bailable.

You can read the full complaint below:

The world through Rajdeep Sardesai’s eyes

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WYSIWYG or What You See Is What You Get, is a commonly used term by computer engineers, but it can also apply to normal life. If you actively look for something, chances are you may get it, even if that something does not exist. There is also a technical term for this, called Pareidolia, wherein one can see familiar patterns in otherwise random or unrelated objects.

Something similar happened with controversial journalist Rajdeep Sardesai recently, when he saw the face of BHU VC GC Tripathi at a Modi rally. He tweeted this out and created a controversy out of it.

Later when the VC stated that he wasn’t even present at the rally, poor medically ill Rajdeep Sardesai had to backtrack and claim that there had been a case of ‘mistaken identity’.

Sardesai should immediately seek medical help, because if he sees the following people, he may start imagining things and starting controversies like:

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Rajdeep: SHOCKED to see Ranbir Kapoor posing in front of a Hyundai car. Wasn’t he the brand ambassador of Renault India? Isn’t brand loyalty important? Should rich spoilt brats be more responsible? Shubhratri!

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Rajdeep: PMO India meets Roger Federer, the Swiss legend! Could not bring Swiss black money so is Modi now trying to bring Swiss players to India? 56 Inch chest anyone?

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Rajdeep: OMG Saif Ali Khan, the Nawab, filling petrol at an Indian Oil station? This is the plight of rich Muslims in Modi’s India, then what to say of the poor. They hounded him for his child’s name, flopped his movie Rangoon, now they make him fill petrol! Saare Jahan se Accha?

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Rajdeep: Sachin and Shoaib embracing each other? Wonder what will Bhakts have to say on this? Will India’s cricketing icon, be called anti-national now?

Rajdeep: Refreshing to see a neta like Priyanka Gandhi in casuals instead of the staid khadi kurtas of some old-style politicians. Time for Indian netas to go western and casual?

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Rajdeep: Prime Minister of India eating at a roadside stall? Looking so frail? PM’s job to serve the nation, not to go on whirl wind campaigns which leave him in ill-health. Eating on road side should be avoided!

Times of India invents Maharashtra CM’s son and even gets him married

Having children is undoubtedly one of the most magical experiences for any parent. Plus seeing that child grow up and finally get married, remains one of the most cherished, memorable and somewhat relieving experiences for a parent.

Apparently Times Of India unsolicitedly wanted to provide Maharashtra CM Devendra Fadnavis with the same experience when they wrote a report titled “Politicians turn up in strength for wedding of Devendra Fadnavis’s son“:

The headline wasn’t rectified at the time of writing the report

This may have come as a pleasant surprise or brutal shock for Devendra Fadnavis as not just his son didn’t get married, apparently he doesn’t even have a son. As it turns out, he just has one daughter named Divija who is young and goes to school.

The TOI report’s content though seems to mention the correct news that the marriage ceremony was of Bhokardan MLA Santosh Danve, who is the son of State BJP president Raosaheb Danve.

So after spotting the embarrassing gaffe, the people on Twitter didn’t hesitate from slamming the publication:


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